1. Working it out: Education, skills and recurrent poverty Welfare-to-Work Convention Scotland 20 September 2012 Jim McCormick, Scotland Adviser – JRF

2. About the JRF R&D for social policy & practice (£10m-£12m) Search, Demonstrate, Influence...through the lens of low-income Poverty, Place and Ageing Society Demographic, economic and climate change Growing focus on North of England and devolved countries Independent but not neutral

3. Education, Poverty & Aspirations Average attainment of the lowest-achieving 20% of young people has risen but the gap persists JRF study of aspirations among pupils aged 11&13 in low-income families (Glasgow, Nottingham & LB Newham) Aspirations relatively high & stable with variations by sex/ethnicity BUT major gaps in ‘know-how’: families, schools, other practitioners Evidence on impact of positive home-school partnerships is clear but neglected

4. School attainment up but gap remains

5. Future Labour Market programme Builds on previous evaluation and qualitative research: welfare-to-work contracting(Dutch & Australian) and recurrent poverty (lone parents, Scotland) How to escape job insecurity and the low pay/no pay cycle: labour market/structural, employer regimes, personal barriers Working Futures: scenarios till 2020

6. Recurrent poverty: background In-work poverty affects 12% of employees Poverty rates for couple families: – When neither has a paid job= 64% – When both work full-time = 1% But for families in persistent poverty, 70% stay poor when someone in the household gets a job Cycling from low pay back to benefits: spike in rapid returns

7. Recurrent poverty: job security and low pay 6% of employees are in temporary work Temporary jobs are more likely to be low-paid Extent of low pay among temp workers varies: - Two-thirds of seasonal workers - Half of casual workers - Two-fifths of agency temps Low-paid temps are more likely to work part-time and want full-time, permanent jobs Temporary posts are associated with less training

8. Fewer unqualified adults

9. But lack of training for those who remain unqualified

10. Risks of the attainment gap Low educational attainment and bigger attainment gap carries higher risks in Scotland/UK than in 9 comparator countries Gap in employment rates and income inequality are lower in NL, BE, DK, F Poverty would be reduced by around 2% lower if risks were equivalent And could be reduced further if ambitious skills scenarios achieved by end of decade

11. Reducing the risks Better work skills among those with lower educational attainment and higher minimum wages Stronger workplace bargaining focused on long-term workforce development goals High level of investment in skills and re-training, with recognition that employers and employees have duties as well as rights Higher, time-limited wage replacement (social insurance) combined with active labour market programmes Higher participation of women in full-time work, reflecting childcare support and tax incentives for second earners in some countries.

12. In touch On the web: www.jrf.org.ukwww.jrf.org.uk On Twitter: @jrf_uk @JimMcCormick16