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Www.bea.gov 2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output Zoë O. Ambargis 65.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.bea.gov 2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output Zoë O. Ambargis 65."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.bea.gov 2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output Zoë O. Ambargis 65 th Annual AUBER Fall Conference Indianapolis, IN October 8-11, 2011

2 www.bea.gov Outline of Today’s Talk ▪ Comparison of annual and benchmark multipliers ▪ Motivation for making comparisons ▪ Factors contributing to differences 2

3 www.bea.gov Annual Update of RIMS II ▪ Incorporates most recent data  More recent information about economy  Improvements in statistical methods ▪ Evaluating the results shows  Changes in national and local economic conditions  Changes in technology 3

4 www.bea.gov Annual vs. Benchmark ▪ Annual:  2008 annual I-O and 2008 regional ▪ Benchmark:  2002 benchmark I-O and 2007 regional  2002 benchmark I-O and 2008 regional 4

5 www.bea.gov Multipliers are Generally Lower Aggregate-level Final-demand Output Multiplier Statistics 5 National effect 1 Regional effect 2 Combined effect 3 Mean percent change−3.3%−0.9%−4.2% States North Carolina−5.8%−4.5%−10.5% Louisiana−1.2% 1.0%−0.2% Wyoming−0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2002 benchmark and 2008 regional compared to 2008 annual and 2008 regional; 28 states below the mean. 2.2002 benchmark and 2007 regional compared to 2002 benchmark and 2008 regional; 22 states below the mean. 3.2002 benchmark and 2007 regional compared to 2008 annual and 2008 regional; 27 states below the mean.

6 www.bea.gov National Factors ▪ Economic conditions  Hollowing out of U.S. economy  Increase in imports as a share of gross output  Changes in value added as a share of gross output  Increase in personal saving rates ▪ Methodological improvements  Calculation of compensation in 2008 annual I-O table 6

7 www.bea.gov Imports U.S. Import Coefficients 7 20022008 Percent change Imports share of total commodity output.072.09127.3 Mean of import share for manufacturing.228.27821.8 Mean of import shares for services.016.02766.0 PCE imports share of total PCE.064.0652.0

8 www.bea.gov Compensation and Value Added Shares of Total Industry Output 8 20022008 Percent change Compensation share of total industry output.32.30-4.8 Total value added share of total industry output.56.54-2.3

9 www.bea.gov U.S. Personal Tax and Saving Rates Personal Spending RIMS II Regional Personal Spending Rate 9 2007*2008 Tax rate.128.117 Saving rate.005.041 *Rates at the time of the 2007 RIMS II update

10 www.bea.gov Regional Factors ▪ North Carolina  Decline in furniture, paper, wood products, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts, and financial services ▪ Louisiana  Increase in mining, real estate, transportation, and management services ▪ Wyoming  Increase in mining, support activities for mining 10

11 www.bea.gov Summary ▪ 2008 annual I-O multipliers generally lower than 2002 benchmark multipliers ▪ National and regional effects ▪ Effects of technical change ▪ Implication on estimated impacts 11

12 www.bea.gov 12 Thank You Zoë O. Ambargis RIMS II Section, Regional Product Division U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Phone: 202-606-5343 E-mail: RIMS@bea.gov

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