1. Modeling Application Process Session 2 Laura Boothe Mike Abraczinskas George Bridgers NC Division of Air Quality Attainment Planning Branch September 30, 2004

2. Topics of Discussion n Reasoning behind photochemical grid modeling approach to SIP development n Photochemical grid modeling overview n Illustrate how modeling can be used to evaluate control strategies for various applications n NCs Early Action Compact (EAC) Ozone modeling results

3. State of the Air – O 3 n 2001-2003 Ozone Design Values – Each Monitor

4. 2001-2003 Ozone Design Values (Highest value per county)

5. What does Non- Attainment mean? n EPA label saying air quality does not meet health standards n Requires State to develop a plan showing what control measures are needed to meet the standard n Requires transportation conformity n Requires new source review on new major industrial sources and major modifications on existing sources

6. Nonattainment Boundaries n Evaluate which monitors are violating n Determine appropriate boundaries n Conduct public meetings n Coordinate with other agencies impacted by nonattainment designations (NCDOT and NCDOC, Local Government)

7. State Implementation Plan (SIP) n States are required to develop a strategy or implementation plan to demonstrate attainment of any criteria pollutant violating the NAAQS n NC moved forward with 8-hour ozone SIP planning despite legal issues with the actual 8-hour ozone standard n Recognition that most of NC would not attain the 8-hour ozone standard when designations finally occur

8. Goals of NC SIP Development n To identify the appropriate emission controls necessary to attain the 8-hour ozone standard statewide n To define any additional emission controls necessary to address the 1- hour ozone violations in Charlotte n To demonstrate a robust attainment strategy that will maintain compliance in the face of future year growth

9. Why Use a Photochemical Grid Modeling System? n More complex than trajectory style analysis or source dispersion modeling because of detailed chemistry and multiple emission sources (point, mobile, and area) n Ability to establish a base/control case that is verified with known data and the ability to vary the emission inputs of this base to assess control strategies n Detailed process analysis can be performed to follow every chemical process back to originating point(s)

10. Photochemical Grid Modeling System Meteorological Model Emissions Processor Photochemical Model Temporally and Spatially Gridded Air Quality Output Data MM5 SMOKE MAQSIP Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Multiscale Air Quality SImulation Platform

11. Current Modeling Projects n Early Action Compact (EAC) modeling Addresses 8-hour ozone Fayetteville, Triad, Unifour, Mountain (total: 19 counties) n VISTAS modeling Addresses regional haze Given the one-atmosphere modeling approach, this will be used for PM2.5 and Ozone to the extent possible

12. Early Action Compact nOn June 19, 2002, EPA Region 6 endorsed Texas Protocol for an Early Action Compact nProtocol deals with attainment of the 8- hr National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone nCalls for early SIPs and associated controls coupled with a deferral of the effective date of future EPA ozone nonattainment (NA) designations.

13. Who is Eligible to Participate? Area may apply for Early Action 8-hr Compact if… Currently designated attainment of the 1- hour ozone standard Air quality monitors show attainment of the 1-hour standard Air quality approaches or exceeds the 8- hour standard

14. Compact Requirements - Milestones and Reporting ä Completion of emissions inventories and modeling ä Adoption of control strategies that demonstrate attainment ä Completion and adoption of the early action SIP revision ä Attainment not later than December 31, 2007 ä Post-attainment demonstration and plan updates

15. EAC Timeline n December 31, 2002 - Compact signed by all parties in MSA (local officials, state air quality agency, and EPA Region) n June 16, 2003 - Submit list of local control measures being considered n March 31, 2004 - Local plan submitted to the state n April 2004 – EPA designates Compact Areas as nonattainment, but defers effective date for these areas

16. EAC Timeline (continued) n December 31, 2004 - State adopts control measures into SIP & submits to EPA for approval n 2005 – Areas implement control measures n June 30, 2006 - Progress assessment and report to EPA n December 2007 – Areas attain 8-hr ozone NAAQS

17. VISTAS w Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast w Regional Planning Organization established under the 1999 Regional Haze Rule w Collaborative effort of States and Tribes to support management of regional haze and related air quality issues in the Southeastern US. w No independent regulatory authority and no authority to direct or establish State or Tribal law or policy.

18. VISTAS NCDAQ is a technical leader in VISTAS Shelia Holman, Technical Analysis Workgroup Chair Brock Nicholson, Planning Workgroup Co-Chair Mike Abraczinskas, Technical Lead for Meteorological Modeling George Bridgers, Technical Lead for Characterizing Meteorology and Conceptual Descriptions Laura Boothe, Technical Lead for Emissions

19. Modeling Application Process n Select areas or domains of interest n Select representative ozone episodes n Prepare and refine meteorological simulations n Prepare and refine emission model inputs n Apply photochemical modeling system n Performance evaluation on episodes n Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Re-apply photochemical modeling system n Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

20. Modeling Application Process n Select areas or domains of interest n Select representative ozone episodes n Prepare and refine meteorological simulations n Prepare and refine emission model inputs n Apply photochemical modeling system n Performance evaluation on episodes n Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Re-apply photochemical modeling system n Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

21. North Carolina 1995 MAQSIP Domain

22. North Carolina 1996 MAQSIP Domain

23. North Carolina 1997 MAQSIP Domain

24. Grid Structure

25. Grid Structure, 4km grid spacing

26. Modeling Application Process Select areas or domains of interest n Select representative ozone episodes n Prepare and refine meteorological simulations n Prepare and refine emission model inputs n Apply photochemical modeling system n Performance evaluation on episodes n Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Re-apply photochemical modeling system n Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

27. Episode Selection For EAC Modeling n Draft USEPA guidance suggests: n Variety of meteorological scenarios when 8-hr maxima exceed 84 ppb n Choose episodes containing days with observed 8- hr maxima close to (+/- 10 ppb) the design value straddling the period from which the episode was drawn Minimum of 3 days Final guidance may suggest much longer periods. Would apply to non EAC ozone modeling.

28. Episode Selection For EAC Modeling n Four unique ozone episodes selected July 10-15, 1995 June 20-30, 1996 (Broken into two episodes) July 10-15, 1997 n Regional 1 and 8-hour ozone exceedences during all four episodes n Each episode spread across multiple days n Variety of meteorological scenarios (Stagnate High Pressure, Pre/Post Frontal Passage, Tropical Wx Influence) n 8-hour ozone maximums were representative of the design values at the monitoring sites throughout NC

29. Looking ahead… Episode Selection For 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 n 8-hour ozone modeling analyses will likely include an entire ozone season May – September 2002 n PM2.5 modeling analyses will be done for the entire year of 2002

30. Modeling Application Process Select areas or domains of interest Select representative ozone episodes n Prepare and refine meteorological simulations n Prepare and refine emission model inputs n Apply photochemical modeling system n Performance evaluation on episodes n Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Re-apply photochemical modeling system n Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

31. Meteorological Modeling n Gridded and hourly variables are needed to simulate advection, diffusion, deposition, chemical transformation, etc. Wind Temperature Water-vapor concentration Pressure Vertical diffusivity (effective mixing height) Cloud cover Rainfall rate

32. Meteorological Modeling n Several iterations may be needed to simulate the meteorological mechanisms that are important to high ozone events n Consider NCs diverse geographical landscapes Physical parameterizations that may work well in the NC Mountains may not work in the NC Coastal Plain n Compromise, compromise, compromise

33. Meteorological Model

34. Meteorological Model Performance (Example from EAC modeling)

36. Meteorological Model Performance (Example from VISTAS modeling)

38. Modeling Application Process Select areas or domains of interest Select representative ozone episodes Prepare and refine meteorological simulations n Prepare and refine emission model inputs n Apply photochemical modeling system n Performance evaluation on episodes n Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Re-apply photochemical modeling system n Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

39. Emissions Requirements n Hourly, gridded, speciated emissions are needed Point sources:Point sources: utilities, refineries, industrial sources, etc. Area sources:Area sources: gas stations, dry cleaners, fires, etc. Motor vehicles:Motor vehicles: cars, trucks, buses, etc. Nonroad mobile sources:Nonroad mobile sources: agricultural equipment, recreational marine, lawn mowers, construction equipment, etc. Biogenic:Biogenic: trees, vegetation, crops

40. Emission Processing GriddingSpeciationTemporalEmission Inventory SMOKE Emission Model Photochemical Model

41. Gridding n Allocates emissions to the cells of the grid Created for each grid modeled Based on 1990 census data (for EAC modeling) 2000 census data for VISTAS modeling n Added gridding surrogates for mobile Travel Demand Areas - created surrogates based on TDM link data for all 12 road types (for EAC modeling) Rest of NC - created surrogates based on NCDOT digitized data for top 6 road types (for EAC modeling)

42. Speciation n Converts Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) into carbon bond IV species n Updated default profiles to reflect default changes made EPAs SPECIATE model n Created new speciation profiles for wood furniture finishing based on NC source specific data

43. Temporal n Adjusts the emissions to the month of the year, day of the week and to the hour of the day n Adjusted highway mobile source profiles to reflect weekly and hourly profiles provided by NCDOT

44. Old EPA default weekday diurnal profile for Mobile sources

45. Weekday diurnal profile for Mobile Based on data from NCDOT Used in EAC modeling

46. Weekend diurnal profile for Mobile Used in EAC modeling

47. Emission Inventory n 5 Basic Source Categories Point Sources Area Sources Nonroad Mobile Sources Highway Mobile Sources Biogenics n 4 Types of Inventories Base Case or Episodic Current Year Future Year Control Strategy Sensitivities can be done on any existing inventory

48. Point Sources Episodic Base Case EAC n North Carolina Started with 95 Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) inventory Adjusted large NOx and VOC non-utility source emissions to match NCDAQs Air Quality Emission Inventory (AQEI) Utility source emissions are Continuous Emissions Monitoring (CEM) data for actual episode days n Other States SIP Call 95 base inventory for non-utility CEM data for most utilities

49. Area Sources Episodic Base Case EAC n North Carolina Calculated based on NC State specific data (i.e., employment data, population, etc.) Backcasted the 2000 EI to episode periods using BEA data. n Other States SIP Call 95 base inventory

50. Nonroad Mobile Sources Episodic Base Case EAC n Railroad Locomotives & Aircraft Engines NC - Based on State specific data (i.e., diesel fuel consumed, landing/take off data) Other States - SIP Call 95 base inventory n Other Nonroad Equipment Based on draft version of EPAs NONROAD 2002 mobile model

51. Highway Mobile Sources Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Episodic Base Case EAC n North Carolina NCDOT VMT for areas without Travel Demand Models (TDM) TDM VMT for Durham, Forsyth, Guilford, Mecklenburg, Orange, & Wake Counties and partial Davidson & Randolph Counties Neighboring States data supplied by State Air Agencies or State DOTs n Other States OTAG 95 VMT data

52. Highway Mobile Sources MOBILE6 default changes n Area speed studies used adjust morning & afternoon peak speeds n Inspection & Maintenance fractions calculated based on accident data n Correction to vehicle mix to represent increase Sports Utility Vehicles n State/Area specific vehicle age distribution

53. Biogenic Sources n Estimated using BEIS3 model n Uses gridded land use data n 10 meter temperatures

54. Modeling Application Process Select areas or domains of interest Select representative ozone episodes Prepare and refine meteorological simulations Prepare and refine emission model inputs n Apply photochemical modeling system n Performance evaluation on episodes n Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Re-apply photochemical modeling system n Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

55. Photochemical Model n Mathematically simulates the following processes: Emission of chemical precursors (anthropogenic and biogenic) Advection and diffusion (transport) Photochemistry Deposition

56. Application of MAQSIP n Meteorological and emissions inputs developed n MM5, SMOKE, and MAQSIP models applied for all four base episodes n Rigorous model performance evaluation resulting in multiple reapplications of the models

59. Model Performance

60. Model Performance Example: 1-hr ozone time series at Enochville (Rowan County)

61. Model Performance Example: 8-hr ozone time series at Enochville (Rowan County)

62. Model Performance Example: 1997 episode Triad monitors Performance goals (NOT CRITERIA): Bias = < +/- 20% Norm Gross Error = 30-35%

63. Modeling Application Process Select areas or domains of interest Select representative ozone episodes Prepare and refine meteorological simulations Prepare and refine emission model inputs Apply photochemical modeling system Performance evaluation on episodes n Prepare current andfuture year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Re-apply photochemical modeling system n Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

64. Current Year Inventories 2000 for EAC modeling n Point Sources Pseudo 2000 for NC 1999 NEI for other states Used episodic utility emissions n Area Sources NC 2000 inventory Used 1999 NEI for other states

65. Current Year Inventories 2000 for EAC modeling n Nonroad Mobile Sources NONROAD 2002 model NC 2000 railroad and airport estimates Other from NEI 1999 n Onroad Mobile Sources Travel Demand Model (TDM) VMT where available NCDOT universe file VMT elsewhere Speed data provided by NCDOT. Vehicle Age Distribution provided by NCDOT

66. Future Year Inventories 2007 for EAC modeling n Point Sources Non-utility projected based on USEPAs EGAS model growth factors –Some state specific data was used (Furniture and Textile industries) NC utility future emissions provided by Duke Energy and Progress Energy Other State utility emissions based on USEPAs Clear Skies modeling n Area Sources Projected based on EGAS growth factors –Some state specific data was used

67. Future Year Inventories 2007 for EAC modeling n Nonroad Mobile Sources EPAs NONROAD 2002 model Railroad locomotive emissions projected with EGAS growth factors NCs Aircraft engine emissions projected with airport specific growth factors (FAA data)

68. Future Year Inventories 2007 for EAC modeling n Highway Mobile Sources In TDM areas, VMT is provided. For other years that are needed a linear interpolation is performed. VMT in other areas is projected using a growth rate from a linear regression completed on the last 10 years of data. The source of this data is NCDOTs universe file. Speed data provided by NCDOT. Vehicle Age Distribution provided by NCDOT –The same age distribution is used for the current year and future years… Mobile6 automatically ages the fleet.

69. Future Years Modeled n 2007 EAC Attainment Year (control measures listed on next 2 slides) n 2012 Maintenance Year n 2017 Maintenance Year

70. Future Control Measures Modeled n Highway Mobile Tier 2 Standards (2004) Low Sulfur Gasoline (2006) Heavy Duty Engine Standard (2007) Clean Diesel Fuel (2007) NCs NOx I/M Program (2002-2006) n Off-Road Mobile Nonroad Diesel Engine Tier 2 Standards (2001 - 2006) Nonroad Diesel Engine Tier 3 Standards (2006 - 2008) Nonroad Spark Engine Phase I Standards (2001-2007) Heavy Duty Engine Standard (2007)

71. Future Control Measures Modeled n Point NOx SIP Call (2004-2006) NC Clean Smokestacks Act (2007-2013) RACT, MACT, etc controls n Area Open Burning Rules (no burning on Ozone Action Days, 2004) Federal Standards –Consumer solvents, architectural coatings, etc.

73. North Carolina NOx Emissions EAC Modeling

74. NC Statewide NOx Emissions 2000 NOx Emissions 2007 NOx Emissions

75. North Carolina Mobile Emissions EAC Modeling

76. 2000 Urban Mobile NOx Emissions

77. 2007 Urban Mobile NOx Emissions

78. Mobile variables and data n Vehicle Miles Traveled n Vehicle age distribution n Vehicle type mix n Road type n Speeds n Fuel RVP n Temperatures n Year being modeled n I/M program OBDII, tailpipe test –Stringency, Compliance, Waiver Rates n I/M Fractions Derived from accident data n Temporal profiles n Gridding surrogates

79. Mobile variables and data Example mobile input file

80. Mobile QA procedures INPUTS n Check it twice! n File parameters are checked by someone other than the person that developed the file OUTPUTS n Check model logs for errors n Comparisons to previous model runs (when multiple iterations are necessary) n Reality checks n Spatial consistency/completeness n Trends 2017<2012<2007

81. Mobile QA procedures 2007 NC NOx

83. Mobile QA procedures 2017 < 2012 < 2007 < 2000

84. Mobile QA procedures 2007 NC NOx

86. Mobile QA procedures 2012 minus 2007 NC NOx

87. Modeling Application Process Select areas or domains of interest Select representative ozone episodes Prepare and refine meteorological simulations Prepare and refine emission model inputs Apply photochemical modeling system Performance evaluation on episodes Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) n Re-apply photochemical modeling system n Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

88. Interpreting Model Results relative change n Focus on relative change between the current year (2000) in the upper left and the future years (2007, 2012, 2017) in the other 3 panels. n Do not n Do not focus on absolute values.

89. 1996 Episode Episode Max Current Year Results (2000) Attainment Year Results (2007) 5-Year Maintenance Results (2012) 10-Year Maintenance Results (2017)

90. 1997 Episode Episode Max Current Year Results (2000) Attainment Year Results (2007) 5-Year Maintenance Results (2012) 10-Year Maintenance Results (2017)

91. Modeling Application Process Select areas or domains of interest Select representative ozone episodes Prepare and refine meteorological simulations Prepare and refine emission model inputs Apply photochemical modeling system Performance evaluation on episodes Prepare current and future year emissions (Projected and Potential Control Strategies) Re-apply photochemical modeling system Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies n Apply the attainment test

92. Relative vs. Absolute n Why use model estimates in a relative rather than absolute sense? The form of the 8-hr standard (4th highest averaged over 3 years) makes it difficult to tell whether or not a modeled exceedance obtained on one or more days selected from a limited sample of days is consistent with meeting the NAAQS Problems with model performance are reduced (although good model performance remains a prerequisite for use of a model in an attainment demonstration)

93. Attainment Test DVF = RRF * DVC DVF = Future Design Value RRF = Relative Reduction Factor DVC = Current Design Value DVC is based on observed data RRF is based on modeled data Future modeled values Current modeled values If DVF is 84 ppb, the test is passed.

95. Attainment Test Step 1: Compute a current site-specific design value (DVC) from monitored data… If DVC > 75 ppb, then proceed to step 2 Step 2: Use air quality modeling results to estimate a site- specific relative reduction factor (RRF) Step 3: Multiply the relative reduction factor obtained in step 2 times the site-specific design value in step 1… The result is a predicted site-specific future design value (DVF)… If DVF is 84 ppb, the test is passed. DVF = RRF * DVC

96. EAC Modeling Results updated 9/29/04 n Summary of results By 2007… All EAC areas show attainment n While the EAC modeling can not be used for the Charlotte, Triangle, RMT, GSMNP attainment demonstrations, one can get an idea of the range of ozone concentrations that we might be dealing with in the future years of 2007, 2012, 2017.

97. EAC Modeling Results updated 9/29/04 Average Ozone Design Value Reduction (ppb) n Hickory n Triad n Triangle n Charlotte n Asheville (ridges) n Fayetteville n Down East n Asheville (valleys) n Others 2007 14 13 12 10 9 2012 19 18 19 18 17 15 14 12 2017 21 22 21 19 16 15

98. NCs Planning Schedule n Aug 2004 – Begin PM2.5 and 8-hr ozone base year modeling through VISTAS n Nov 2004 – Begin modeling PM2.5 and 8-hr ozone future years n Dec 2004 – Submit SIP to USEPA for EAC areas n All of 2005 – Complete PM2.5 and 8-hr ozone modeling with control strategies n Jan 2006 – Start rule making process for CLT area (RFP 15% VOC requirements) n Jun 2007 – Submit SIP to USEPA for 8-hr ozone n Jan/Feb 2008 – SIP due to USEPA for PM2.5 nonattainment areas (NCDAQ will likely submit this with 8-hr ozone SIP)

99. For More Information: n Visit our web site: http://ncair.org n Technical web site: http://www.cep.unc.edu/empd/projects2/NCDAQ/PGM/results/ n VISTAS information: http://www.vistas-sesarm.org/