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Joint Dynamic Engagement Model JDEM 14 August 2008 Henry Neimeier
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Joint Dynamic Engagement Model JDEM Calculate the military impact of OWS options –Loss Exchange ratio –Casualties –Time to objective Real time execution on a PC with free Analytica player Efficient frontier order of alternative funding –When alternative life cycle cost module developed
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JNO Dynamic Engagement Model (JDEM) Player Interface Buttons provide access to the model for users that have downloaded the free Analytica player from www.lumina.com Green: user Inputs Orange: MOE outputs Red: intermediate outputs Blue: Detail Model –Grouped in module sections
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Model Details (Module Influence Diagram & Module Summary) Portfolio: Selects scenario options, calculates TLE, and sets uncertain input variable distributions. Target Movement: Calculates target escape probability from target movement statistics Weapons: Assigns weapons to target classes to maximize effective kills per sortie corrected for target location error TLE, survivable throughput, & escape probability. Calculates execute time Comm Net: Calculate path delay, path survival probability, and survivable throughput for specified network parameters and threat level Kill Thread Delay: Set thread task, sense, fuse, plan, execute times. Compare total time to enemy response time to determine targets at risk. ISR: Assigns ISR platforms to scenario, calculates revisit time, & probability of target classification Terrain Weather: Calculates ISR coverage multiplier to correct for scenario weather and terrain masking. Radar Plots: Displays multi dimensional outputs in radar plot format
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Force Drawdown Modified Lanchester Equation
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Communication Network Baseline All Options
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Kill Thread Delay
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ISR
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Weapons All Options Baseline
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Terrain Weather
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MCO2 Example Results Proportion Of Force Remaining Blue High Intensity Low Intensity Red
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MCO2 Baseline & All Options Performance Versus Threat Level All High Intensity Baseline PeaceLow Intensity
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MOE Dimension Definitions Peace Low High Base All @R-% targets at risk – sufficient time to attack BR -% Blue force Remaining when red ineffective TI-Days till red force ineffective PK-% average kill probability including escape probability and survivable throughput PKc –% PK corrected for classification probability and targets at risk PS-% communications Path Survival probability TH-% Throughput of path ST-% Survivable Throughput (PS*TH) DL-communication path delay (% of minute) SU*-% multiplier of Exchange Ratio for support traffic capability TLE*-% multiplier of PK for degrade of Target Location Error for GPS missiles Note: Values > 100% are truncated at 100%
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Scenario Versus Options Baseline (b), All (a) (Average Kill Probability %, Low Intensity) Baseline All MCO1b41 MCO1a73 MCO2b35 MCO2a84 MCO3b37 MCO3a72 GWOTb69 GWOTa86 AFGAHNb59 AFGAHNa80
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