1. Joint Dynamic Engagement Model JDEM 14 August 2008 Henry Neimeier

2. Joint Dynamic Engagement Model JDEM Calculate the military impact of OWS options –Loss Exchange ratio –Casualties –Time to objective Real time execution on a PC with free Analytica player Efficient frontier order of alternative funding –When alternative life cycle cost module developed

3. JNO Dynamic Engagement Model (JDEM) Player Interface Buttons provide access to the model for users that have downloaded the free Analytica player from www.lumina.com Green: user Inputs Orange: MOE outputs Red: intermediate outputs Blue: Detail Model –Grouped in module sections

4. Model Details (Module Influence Diagram & Module Summary) Portfolio: Selects scenario options, calculates TLE, and sets uncertain input variable distributions. Target Movement: Calculates target escape probability from target movement statistics Weapons: Assigns weapons to target classes to maximize effective kills per sortie corrected for target location error TLE, survivable throughput, & escape probability. Calculates execute time Comm Net: Calculate path delay, path survival probability, and survivable throughput for specified network parameters and threat level Kill Thread Delay: Set thread task, sense, fuse, plan, execute times. Compare total time to enemy response time to determine targets at risk. ISR: Assigns ISR platforms to scenario, calculates revisit time, & probability of target classification Terrain Weather: Calculates ISR coverage multiplier to correct for scenario weather and terrain masking. Radar Plots: Displays multi dimensional outputs in radar plot format

5. Force Drawdown Modified Lanchester Equation

6. Communication Network Baseline All Options

7. Kill Thread Delay

8. ISR

9. Weapons All Options Baseline

10. Terrain Weather

11. MCO2 Example Results Proportion Of Force Remaining Blue High Intensity Low Intensity Red

12. MCO2 Baseline & All Options Performance Versus Threat Level All High Intensity Baseline PeaceLow Intensity

13. MOE Dimension Definitions Peace Low High Base All @R-% targets at risk – sufficient time to attack BR -% Blue force Remaining when red ineffective TI-Days till red force ineffective PK-% average kill probability including escape probability and survivable throughput PKc –% PK corrected for classification probability and targets at risk PS-% communications Path Survival probability TH-% Throughput of path ST-% Survivable Throughput (PS*TH) DL-communication path delay (% of minute) SU*-% multiplier of Exchange Ratio for support traffic capability TLE*-% multiplier of PK for degrade of Target Location Error for GPS missiles Note: Values > 100% are truncated at 100%

14. Scenario Versus Options Baseline (b), All (a) (Average Kill Probability %, Low Intensity) Baseline All MCO1b41 MCO1a73 MCO2b35 MCO2a84 MCO3b37 MCO3a72 GWOTb69 GWOTa86 AFGAHNb59 AFGAHNa80