1. EP06: Energy and Climate Change Dr Jean-Francois Mercure, jm801@cam.ac.ukjm801@cam.ac.uk Lectures 1, 4-8 Pablo Salas, pas80@cam.ac.ukpas80@cam.ac.uk Lectures 2-3 Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research 21 Silver Street www.4cmr.group.cam.ac.uk

2. EP06: Structure of the course Lecture 1: Introduction to energy and climate change - International framing, - Climate science - Energy use, by sector, region, resource/product Lecture 2-3: Global energy resources and technologies - History of energy consumption - Energy technologies: non-renewables - Energy technologies: renewables - Quantitative approach to energy resources: non-renewables - Quantitative approach to energy resources: renewables Lecture 4: Energy economics - Understanding GDP versus energy consumption - Resource intensity, carbon intensity, emissions - Energy demand and economic development - Energy access and energy poverty Lectures 5-6: Innovation and technological change - Historical trends of technology diffusion - Learning-by-doing and increasing returns - Innovation-diffusion theory - Overview of evolutionary economics - Technological change and economic growth - Modelling technological change

3. EP06: Structure of the course Lectures 7-8: Energy and climate policy - Energy policy instruments - Innovation policy and R&D support, innovation systems - Practical exercise: scenarios of future climate policy - Economic growth, development versus climate policy, the various views - Co-benefits: health, synergies across sectors Practical exercise: Practical team work to submit at the last lecture March 8! 30% of the final mark Policy analysis using a computational tool, teams of 4-5 Tutorials with explanations on Fridays at 12-2pm on Jan 30, Feb 13, 20 and 27 Final Test: 70% of the final mark Written exam on everything in these lectures + the practical exercise Recommendations for the course: Be present at every lecture or you may fail Download/read/print notes before the lecture Read texts given at lectures, subject of exam Do not free-ride on the practical exercise, this could impact your exam

4. Lecture 1 - Introduction to energy and climate change Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Which gases? -How much? International Energy Agency -Where from? – Sectors – IPCC WGIII -Where from? – Countries – IPCC WGIII -Where is it leading us? – Representative Concentration Pathways – IPCC -Climate Science -From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion -From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle -From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect -From radiative forcing to global warming – greenhouse effect -Impacts of climate change

5. Lecture 1 - Introduction to energy and climate change Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Primary energy use globally -Fossil fuels – Oil, gas, coal -Nuclear -Renewables -Who uses what? Sectors -Who uses what? Countries -Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? -Back to GHG emissions – future projections

6. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Which gases? -CO 2 : carbon dioxide -CH 4 : methane -N 2 O -F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p11 (2014)

7. -CO 2 : carbon dioxide: fuel combustion – long-lived ( >> 100 years ) 57% (IPCC2007) E.g.Petrol for transport: C 8 H 18 + 8 O 2 -> 9 H 2 O + 8 CO 2 + Heat Natural gas: CH 4 + O 2 -> 2H 2 O + CO 2 + Heat Coal: C n H 2n+2 + (3n+1)/2 O 2 → (n+1) H 2 O + n CO 2 + Heat -CO 2 : Agriculture, forestry and land use 17% Deforestation, decay, peat and fires -CH 4 : methane: oil + gas extraction, agriculture – short-lived (10 Years -> CO 2 ) 14% Oil + gas industry: drilling, leaks, flaring Agriculture: cattle farming Waste -N 2 O: (130 years) 8% Agriculture and fossil fuel combustion -F-gases 1% HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Which gases? Gases with high global warming potentials IPCC AR4 WGIII Ch1 p103 (2007)

8. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Which gases? Global warming potentials: http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php

9. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -How much? Emissions from fuel combustion, from the International Energy Agency IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014 38% 5% 21% 22% 10% Electricity sector dominated, followed by transport and industry

10. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Where from? – Sectors – IPCC WGIII IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p14 (2014)

11. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Where from? – Countries – IPCC WGIII Europe + North America: ~ flat emissions Developing economies: fast rising emissions IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p13 (2014)

12. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -What are GHG emissions? -Where is it leading us? – Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) – IPCC RCPs are common assumptions about future emissions in order to evaluate on a common basis impacts of emissions and climate change. Named according to their forcing in W/m 2. But what is the 2 deg target, what is the impact? 8.5 – Business as usual (BAU) 6.0 – Highly unlikely to meet the 2 deg target 4.5 – 50% chance meeting the 2 deg target 2.6 – Highly likely to meet the 2 deg target IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary p13 (2014) IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Structure: WGI – The physical sciences – Climatology WGII – Impacts and Adaptation – Geography, agriculture, land use, social sciences WGIII – Mitigation – Economics, energy, engineering, agriculture

13. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006)

14. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From Fuels to GHG emissions – fuel combustion IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006) -Fuels have a fairly well-defined carbon content (e.g. petrol, kerosene, natural gas, anthracite, lignite etc) -IPCC convention: Emissions are calculated from fuel use at the point of use (e.g. coal use in plant, fuels sold at pump) -Emissions reported, otherwise estimated -Must avoid double-counting -IPCC 2006 provides complete methodology

15. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle IPCC AR5 WGI Ch6 p471 (2013)

16. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From GHG emissions to concentrations – carbon cycle IPCC AR4 WGIII TS p42 (2007) Mercure et al Energy Policy 73 686-700 (2014) -CO 2 Emissions (Gt/y) -> CO 2 concentration (ppm) Requires modelling the carbon cycle Where does the CO 2 go? Ocean? Biomass? etc -Uncertainty is important!

17. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From concentrations to radiative forcing and warming – greenhouse effect -Earth’s energy balance: radiation influx, radiation outflux, absorption -3 types of models: (1) simple energy balance, (2) intermediate complexity (3) General circulation model (e.g. on supercomputers at Hadley centre)

18. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect IPCC AR4 WGIII ch3 p 199, TS p42 (2007) Mercure et al Energy Policy 73 686-700 (2014)

19. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From concentrations to global warming – greenhouse effect IPCC AR5 WGI TS p 104 (2014) -Perhaps the most important/insightful AR5 chart -Very simple relationship between cumulative emissions – warming -Remember: cumulative emissions cannot go backwards -Enables to define carbon budgets

20. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -From radiative forcing to global warming – greenhouse effect IPCC AR5 WGI TS p94 (2014) IPCC AR5 WGI TS p89 (2014) Back to RCPs: different levels of warming at stabilisation times, which are in the very long term

21. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -Impacts of climate change

22. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -Impacts of climate change IPCC AR5 WGI TS p49 (2014) Contributions to sea level rise: - Melting glaciers - Thermal expansion

23. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -Impacts of climate change IPCC AR4 WGII Summary for Policymakers (2007) Areas at risk of flooding due to sea level rise

24. Lecture 1-H1: Introduction to energy and climate change -Climate Science -Impacts of climate change IPCC AR4 WGII TS p37 (2007) What does warming mean for the planet? Here’s a nice summary from AR4

25. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Primary energy use globally -Energy sources – Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables -Nuclear -Renewables -Who uses what? Sectors -Who uses what? Countries -Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? -Back to GHG emissions – future projections

26. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Primary energy use globally -Total primary energy production: 560 EJ/y -Fossil fuels: 461 EJ/y -Oil: 176 EJ/y -Coal: 166 EJ/y -Gas: 119 EJ/y -Nuclear: 27 EJ/y -Renewables: 74 EJ/y -Hydro: 13 EJ/y -Biomass: 54 EJ/y -Wind: 1.9 EJ/y -Solar: 1.3 EJ/y -Geothermal: 2.7 EJ/y -Total primary energy use: 560 EJ/y -Energy industry + transf.: 176 EJ/y -Industry: 106 EJ/y -Transport: 105 EJ/y -Buildings: 130 EJ/y -Non-energy 34 EJ/y IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

27. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Energy sources – Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables -Coal: -Primarily in electricity generation 58% -Oil -Primarily in transport 55% (of production) 65% (of final use) -Gas -Electricity (39%), industry (21%), buildings (21%) -Biomass -84% for heating and cooking in developing countries -Nuclear + renewables: -Near to 100% into electricity 2012, Units: TJ IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

28. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Nuclear -Notes -Forms ‘Exclusive nuclear club’ -Europe largest (mainly france, 80% of French Electricity) -Followed by USA -Japan + Korea large -Fukushima accident: Japan nuclear uncertain, Germany phase out IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

29. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Renewables -Notes -Renewables are evenly distributed around the world (natural processes) -Renewables are local resources, mostly not exportable (e.g. wind, solar) -Dominated by hydro and biomass -Hydro is the ‘most convenient’ renewable resource for electricity -Biomass for heating and cooking, mostly in developing countries -Renewables comparatively small, very small when excluding hydro IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

30. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Who uses what? Sectors 2012 Total energy use, Units: TJ IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

31. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Who uses what? Countries -Main features: -EU, USA, other developed nations: large but flat energy consumption -BRIC countries: large and very fast rising energy consumption -Middle East and rest of the world: large and rising -World: more than doubled since 1970 IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

32. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Who uses what? Countries IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014 -Main features: -Industry important in BRIC countries -Transport important in USA -Buildings/homes important in Africa, EU -Energy industry important in the Middle-East -China largest energy user -USA similar to EU

33. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Who uses what? Countries IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014

34. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us? 2008 TPED = 514 EJ (IEA WEO 2010) 2100 TPED = 600 – 1200 EJ  1.1 – 2.3 higher than today Fossil fuels: 425 EJ (82%) (IEA WEO 2010) Edenhofer et al. The economics of low stabilisation, Energy Journal, 2010, special issue

35. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Projections of future energy use – where does it lead us ? – Electricity Mercure et al. Energy Policy 2014

36. Lecture 1-H2: Introduction to energy and climate change -Energy -Back to GHG emissions – future projections – IPCC 100 80 60 40 20 0 GtCO 2 /y CO 2 : O – C – O Mass C: 12 atomic units Mass O: 16 atomic units Mass CO 2 : (12+16+16) = 44 Atomic units => Conversion factor C -> CO 2 = 3.666

37. Lecture 1: Further reading -Following this lecture, please read: -IPCC AR5 WGIII Technical Summary (TS) 2014 – go the IPCC website and download the report! -IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2014 – free IEA publication http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/ key-world-energy-statistics-2014.html (Type Key World Energy Statistics 2014 in google!) http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/ key-world-energy-statistics-2014.html -Have a scan through IPCC AR5 WGI Technical Summary 2013 (Not in the exam! But know your IPCC!) -Questions in the exam: could be on anything in this presentation, including in the readings! Practical work (essay) to be submitted on March 8 th (at the last lecture, 30% final grade) -We will be using an electricity sector policy simulation software -We will form teams of 4 -For each team: find a computer with Matlab/Install Matlab on your computer -Please read the model and scenario descriptions: Mercure (2012) Energy Policy 48 799-811 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.201206.025http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.201206.025 Mercure et al. (2014) Energy Policy 73 696-700 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.029http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.029 -The essay will be about creating scenarios of electricity policy -The model is available at http://www.4cmr.group.cam.ac.uk/research/FTT/fttviewerhttp://www.4cmr.group.cam.ac.uk/research/FTT/fttviewer

38. Lecture 1: References Edenhofer et al. The economics of low stabilisation, Energy Journal, 2010, special issue https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/sustainable- solutions/flagshipspld/MitigationScenarios/adam https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/sustainable- solutions/flagshipspld/MitigationScenarios/adam IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 2014, IEA Extended World Energy Balances 2014 Access IEA databases through http://ukdataservice.ac.uk/get-data/key-data/international-macro-databanks.aspx http://ukdataservice.ac.uk/get-data/key-data/international-macro-databanks.aspx IPCC AR5 WGI (2013), IPCC AR5 WGIII (2014) Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group 1: The physical sciences basis (2013), http://www.ipcc.ch Work Group 3: Mitigation of Climate Change (2014)http://www.ipcc.ch IPCC AR4 WGII (2007), IPCC AR4 WGIII (2007) Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/ http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/ IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories (2006) http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/ http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/ Mercure, J.-F., Salas, P., Foley, A., Chewpreecha, U., Pollitt, H., Holden, P. B., & Edwards, N. R. (2014). The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector. Energy Policy, 73, 686–700. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.029 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.029