1. IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) An Integrated Assessment Model for Fine Particulate Matter in Europe Markus Amann, M. Johannson, A. Lükewille, W. Schöpp (IIASA) H. ApSimon, T. Gonzales (Imperial College, London, UK L. Tarrason, S. Tsyro (Norweg. Met. Institute, Oslo, Norway)

2. IIASA A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

3. IIASA The new RAINS structure to model particles Economic activities Emission control policies Agriculture NO x emissions SO 2 emissions Solvents, fuels, industry Energy use NH 3 dispersion S dispersion VOC emissions NH 3 emissions Transport Critical loads f. acidification Critical loads f. eutrophication NO x dispersion O 3 formation NH 3 control & costs NO x /VOC control&costs VOC control & costs Emission control costs Critical levels for ozone Environmental targets Primary PM dispersion Other activities PM control & costs Primary PM emissions Secondary aerosols PM Population exposure SO 2 control & costs NO x control & costs O 3 Population exposure

4. IIASA Approach to PM Assessment Health impact theories still controversial (PM mass, size, number, carbonaceous, etc.) Integrated assessment for all impact theories (as far as possible) to determine set of robust measures First step: PM mass, distinguish PM size classes Future work: other PM properties (carbonaceous, metals, alkaline, etc.)

5. IIASA PM10 or coarse/fine particles?

6. IIASA Initial Projections of Primary PM EU-15Non-EU

7. IIASA PM fine 1990 total particulate matterprimary particulate matter

8. IIASA PM coarse 1990 total particulate matterprimary particulate matter

9. IIASA PM control options considered in RAINS Stationary Sources: Cyclones Fabric filters Electrostatic precipitators (ESP) – 1 field – 2/3 fields – 3+ fields Improved combustion techniques for small sources Mobile Sources: EURO-II EURO-III EURO-IV EURO-V

10. IIASA Primary and secondary aerosol precursor emissions in Europe

11. IIASA Estimated contributions to PM concentrations EMEP cell 20/16 (Dutch/German border)

12. IIASA Conclusions If PM mass is health-relevant... Rural background PM concentrations –dominated by long-range transport –primary PM emissions only minor share In urban areas coarse fraction more important –more local sources –combustion and ‘mechanical’ origin are important If other PM properties are relevant... –more analysis needed

13. IIASA Conclusions Health impacts of fine particulate matter are strongly linked with emissions of ‘traditional’ pollutants Cost-effective strategies need to balance controls for primary PM emissions and secondary aerosols PM2.5 transported over large distances, coarse particles more local Uncertainties will prevail, RAINS can offer tool for systematic search for robust strategies