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Alyson JK Bailes, University of Iceland Summer School, 3 July 2014
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What do you think I mean by a ‘strategy’ in this context? Who or what do you know of that has such a strategy? Why and when would people decide to create such a strategy?
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Aiming at SURVIVAL – in what sense? – but also: (external) ◦ Fixing identity: who are we, what do we stand for? Freedom of manouevre, room to grow Influence: to defend own interests; to move world in right direction ‘Doing good’?? What are the internal aims??
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What does the strategy need to cover? Probably, as a minimum: ‘Traditional’, territorial security Economic aspects of survival and competition (in globalized setting) Non-military (‘societal’) security: ‘new’ (non-state) threats, accidents/disasters, ‘softer’ risks (natural, social etc) Also if wished: ‘Export’ of security + preferably: norms/principles; main tools and procedures for execution, inc. review process
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Limited tools of power (military, financial) Narrowly based + highly dependent economy Smaller, less expert elites (inc diplomats) Less influence, more reliant on rules of the game BUT ALSO: Chance of non-threatening image ‘pure’ when giving advice/assistance, credible mediator Can try to shift environment through good ideas (‘norm entrepreneur’), flexibility, innovation Be ‘all things to all men’, or play off larger actors against each other??
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How long have you been a state? How did you become one? Where are you in terms of geography, climate, economic + social development? Where are you in terms of conflict, internal order, social and cultural diversity? Where are you in terms of your political neighbourhood? What sort and size of states? What regional institutions? Do they work?? Other ‘powers’ in your region?? (and how do you relate to them?)
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Seek a protector state - In same region or outside - Explicit security pact or ‘bandwaggoning’ - Military/strategic and/or economic help NB COSTS, visible+invisible – loss of freedom+ ’innocence’, agenda importing/mimicking, poss. conflict with values + identity-building Also balancing: can overlap, or in form of ‘ganging up’ with small/medium neighbours
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UN + its agencies as general protector of the small: may be enough if few security threats Regional institutions (NATO, EU, OSCE, CBSS, Nordic Cooperation, Arctic Council – and non-European equivalents) Post-colonial networks (for aid and identity) Functional networks eg small island states, ‘war’ or ‘peace’ coalitions, specialized security statuses eg NNA, NWFZ….
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Who decides on strategy? Who is or should be consulted? Who executes it? (NB non-state roles??) Who deals with non-national partners?
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- And are these things equally likely, more likely, or less likely to go wrong in a small state??
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