1. DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases Setting priorities for GHG emissions’ reduction George Mavrotas NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS Skopje - 22.3.2002

2. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION Analysis of the current situation – Recognize priorities Indicative measures and policies Evaluation of the measures Priorities according to local experts Concluding remarks

3. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in the EU

4. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Distribution of CO 2 emissions CO 2 – eq emisions for 2000 (estimates) 14036 kt CO 2 Energy sector 10787 kt CO 2 First priority: Measures that affect electricity production

5. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Power generation Electric efficiency: 40% CO 2 emission factor:0.98 tCO 2 /MWh Power generation 2000 6441 GWh GREECE Power generation 2000 52200 GWh Electric efficiency: 35% CO 2 emission factor:0.95 tCO 2 /MWh

6. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Measures and Policies for Electricity Generation High Priority: Reduce solids - increase renewables (hydro, wind) and natural gas in power generation mix Improve efficiency “Clean” technologies (hydro, NG) for base load Minimize transmission losses  The goal is to improve energy efficiency of the existing infrastructure and to gradually upgrade the whole sector by adding cleaner and more efficient technologies.

7. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Measures and Policies for the Demand Sectors The aim should be 3-fold:  To increase energy efficiency through minimisation of energy losses  To upgrade existing infrastructure with new appliances/equipment  To introduce cleaner fuels and renewables

8. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Measures and Policies for the Residential & Tertiary Sector Improved maintenance of central heating systems Reduction of thermal losses in existing buildings (insulation + double glazing) Updating building specifications for new buildings Buildings shading Use of low energy lamps Use of efficient domestic appliances Automatisation in lighting Solar water heating systems Further penetration of natural gas District heating with biomass CHP in large buildings (hotels, hospitals, etc)

9. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Measures and Policies for the Industrial Sector Improved maintenance of energy equipment Energy conservation (reduction of losses) Substitution of solids and oil with natural gas Cogeneration with natural gas Exploitation of biomass (agricultural residues)

10. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Measures and Policies for the Transport Sector Improved maintenance of private cars, trucks and buses Improvement of road network Improvement in traffic lighting Promotion of public transport Increased natural gas in public transport

11. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Evaluation of measures Cost estimation  Cost per ton of CO 2 saved (specific cost)  Contribution to CO 2 emissions’ abatement  Marginal abatement cost curve Additional criteria  Ease of implementation (missing infrastructures, administrative-legislative barriers)  Environmental synergies  Impact on employment and regional development

12. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Cost per ton of CO 2 saved Comparison with the relative baseline scenario option  Specify the reference unit (e.g. 1 household) and the reference time period (e.g. 1year)  Cost and CO 2 emissions estimation for the baseline scenario option (without the measure)  Cost and CO 2 emissions estimation with the measure implementation  Cost of measure per ton of CO 2 saved:

13. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 CO 2 abatement estimation Specify the target year Assume a penetration rate of the measure at target year Estimate the CO 2 abatement at target year:  CO2ab=(CO2 b -CO2 m ) ref_unit  units targ_year  penetration_rate

14. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Greek case: ranking according to the specific cost of measures

15. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Greek case: ranking according to the CO 2 abatement in 2010

16. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Greek case: Marginal abatement cost curve for 2010

17. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Example: Economy lamps Baseline scenario: Incandescent lamps Base of calculations: 1 typical household (100 m 2 ) Reference time period: 1 year Incandescent lamps Economy lamps Lighting power420 W105 W Annual consumption294 kWh73 kWh Price of 1 lamp (60W  15W) 0.88 €14.67 € Lifetime~ 1 year~ 8 years

18. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Example: Economy lamps (2) Annualized cost per lamp:  Incandescent: 0.88 €  Economy lamp:CRF(4%, 8 years)  14.67 =0.149  14.67 = 2.19 € Annualized cost per household:  Incandescent:7.1 lamps/household  0.88 €/lamp = 6.22 €  Economy lamps: 7.1 lamps/household  2.19 €/lamp = 15.40 € Annual electricity cost (~ 0.062 €/kWh):  Incandescent:0.062 €/kWh  294 kWh = 18.11 €  Economy lamps: 0.062 €/kWh  73 kWh = 4.53 €

19. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Example: Economy lamps (3) Total annual cost per household:  Incandescent:6.22 € + 18.11 € = 24.33 €  Economy lamps:15.40 € + 4.53 € = 19.93 € Power generation data  Transmission losses: 10%  Average emission factor (2010): 0.987 kg CO 2 /kWh Power generation CO 2 emissions per household  Incandescent:0.987  294/(1- 0.1) = 322 kg CO 2  Economy lamps:0.987  73/(1- 0.1) = 81 kg CO 2

20. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Example: Economy lamps (4) Abatement cost:  (19.93€ – 24.33€) / (322 kgCO 2 – 81 kgCO 2 ) = -18.22 €/ tCO 2 Number of households in 2010: ~ 600.000 Penetration of the measure until 2010: ~ 50% CO 2 abatement in 2010:  600.000  (322 kgCO 2 – 81 kgCO 2 )  0.5 = 72.3 kt CO 2

21. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Priorities according to local experts (Oct. 2001)

22. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Questionnaire results (2)

23. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Questionnaire results (3)

24. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Questionnaire results (4)

25. DAC Project / Skopje, 22.3.2002 Concluding remarks First priority: Power generation sector Criteria for the evaluation of measures  Cost per ton of CO 2 saved  CO 2 abatement for target year  Applicability, synergies, employment Current phase in Task 3 of DAC project: quantification of the measures