1. Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Wilfried Winiwarter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Frantisek Gyarfas, Imrich Bertok Draft Baseline Scenarios for CAFE 3 rd Stakeholder Consultation Brussels, April 30, 2004

2. Integrated assessment in CAFE Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Health and environmental impacts Costs Environmental targets OPTIMIZATION Driving forces BASELINE PROJECTION

3. Preparation of input data

4. Bilateral consultations Main issues Energy projections: Discrepancies of year 2000 energy statistics Comments on PRIMES projections –Obvious discrepancies –Differences in expectations Emission calculations: Review of year 2000 emission inventory Penetration rates of control measures Emission control potential for SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM10/2.5

5. Bilateral consultations (1) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr. scen Denmark-- 16 Jan 04 -YY Latvia-- 08 Oct 03 --Y EUROPIA2-3 Oct 03205 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04- EURELECTRIC30-31 Oct 034 - - Hungary14 Nov 031 - --- Germany20-21 Nov 034 19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04 Y-- Czech Republic25 Nov 033 19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 Y-Y ACEA12 Dec 0310 - - Italy15-16 Dec 032 19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 YY- France8-9 Jan 045 31 Mar 04 - 2-15 Apr 04 YY- Sweden22-23 Jan 043 29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 YYY UK26-28 Jan 048 19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04 Y-Y Spain4-5 Feb 045 30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 04 Y-- Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

6. Bilateral consultations (2) Country or organization Consultation meeting date No of experts Comments receivedComments PRIMES Energy scenario Agr.. scen Portugal12-13 Feb 045 27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 YYY Belgium16-17 Feb 047 08 Mar - 2-13 Apr, 06 Apr 04 YY- Austria23 Feb 0411 24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 --Y Ireland4-5/19 Mar 042 12,19 Mar 04 Y-Y ESVOC8 Mar 043 - -- Finland8-9 Mar 043 19,25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 04 Y(Y)- Lithuania10 Mar 042 24 Mar 04 Y-- Estonia12 Mar 042 17 Mar 04 --- Slovakia15 Mar 043 22 Mar 04 Y-- Poland17-18 Mar 042 17,18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04 --- Slovenia22 Mar 042 24,29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04 -YY Netherlands25-26 Mar 044 16 Mar 04 - 02,08,18 Apr 04 Y-Y 19 + 4942114710 Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

7. Bilateral consultations No contacts: Cyprus, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta. Despite time pressure, very constructive attitude at the meetings! Thorough, well prepared input from national experts! Prompt response to follow-up questions! THANK YOU!

8. Next steps June 2004 Incorporation of national scenarios Feedbacks on the 2 draft emission scenarios Revised PRIMES scenario (with climate) taking into account country comments September 2004 First set of policy scenarios

10. Janusz Cofala Approach to energy-related projections

11. CAFE energy baseline projections Two draft baseline projections – available –include PRIMES numbers plus additional assumptions from national submissions (e.g., share of LDTs in freight transport, fuel use by off-road vehicles and maritime activities, corrections for fuel used outside EMEP area) National projections will be implemented by June –Currently available for eight countries, some of them need to be completed or re-formatted Revised PRIMES projection by June

12. Approach for baseline emission projections Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 –Problem: for some countries important differences between subsequent submissions (e.g., to CLRTAP, NEC, new national total different by > 10%) –Values reported to CLRTAP plus changes documented during consultations taken into account Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020 –Takes international and national legislation into account –Done together with national teams to also include “current practices”

13. Problems encountered Tight schedule and thus late delivery of national data - not all comments could be included Insufficient time for iterations with national experts –Problem with interpretation of national numbers (format, coverage) –Inclusion of suggested changes would have created large inconsistencies with national inventories Consultations helped a lot in mutual understanding!

14. Transport emissions - approach (1) Exhaust emissions – fuel use from PRIMES Non-exhaust emissions – veh-km (derived from fuel use) Turnover of fleet taken from national estimates National emission factors applied where available (Auto/Oil estimates modified during consultations) Efficiencies of EURO-stages based on Auto/Oil info plus other sources (TREMOD, Austrian model, RICARDO - for EURO 5/6)

15. Transport emissions - approach (2) Impact of cycle-beating for trucks on NO x considered (ARTEMIS Project, report by TU Graz, 2003), generates inconsistencies with some national 2000 emission inventories Other findings of ARTEMIS not included Data for off-road sources from EGTEI Consistency with TREMOVE not yet established Further calibration and updates is needed when new data become available

17. Zbigniew Klimont Comments on the agricultural projections

18. Available projections No-CAP reform projection is implemented National projections will be implemented by June 2004 CAP-reform scenario: implementation depends on availability of data

19. Approach for baseline emission projections Capture major characteristics of national agricultural systems, including implementation of measures Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020

20. Problems encountered Only limited response to the RAINS data sets Only few countries commented on control strategies A number of “consistency” issues encountered, i.e., –What are laying hens? –Which horses emit ammonia and why not all of them? –How to deal with changing production efficiency and its feedback on “unit” ammonia emissions? In some cases late delivery of national data Insufficient time for iterations with national experts

21. Comments on the projections of VOC related activities

22. Available projections Baseline projection: based on PRIMES (no climate policy) value added growth rates Additional information from national experts was used, especially for sectors that were only poorly correlated with the PRIMES broad sector categories National projections will be implemented by June 2004

23. Approach for baseline emission projections Attempt to reproduce national implied emission factors including implementation of VOC control measures between 1990 and 2000 Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000 Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020

24. Problems encountered Late completion of RAINS for the non-energy sectors Limited response to the energy related data sets Several countries pointed out that data required by RAINS (although aggregated) is hardly or not available in national inventory systems Difficulty in defining national control strategies and future penetration rates Insufficient time for iterations with national experts

26. Draft baseline emission projections

27. Energy projections

28. By now: –2 Europe-wide projections implemented: DG-TREN Baseline (no further climate measures) With climate measures By end of June: –National projections –Revised PRIMES projection with climate measures, taking into account stakeholder comments

29. Energy use per fuel EU-15 [PJ] No further climate measures With climate measures Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasRenewableNuclearDifference to "no further climate measures"

30. Energy use per fuel New Member States [PJ] No further climate measures With climate measures Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasRenewableNuclearDifference to "no further climate measures"

31. Energy use per sector EU-15 [PJ] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportNon-energy No further climate measures With climate measures Difference to "no further climate measures"

32. Energy use per sector New Member States [PJ] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportNon-energy No further climate measures With climate measures Difference to "no further climate measures"

33. Agricultural projections

34. Animal numbers (pre-CAP reform), relative to 2000 CattlePigsChickenOther animals EU-15 New Member States

35. SO 2 emissions

36. Comparison of 2000 SO 2 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

37. SO 2 emissions Measures: –Large Combustion Plant Directive –S Content of Liquid Fuels Directive –Directives on quality of petrol and diesel fuels –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

38. SO 2 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] 200520102015 Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x--------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

39. SO 2 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] 200520102015 Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x---------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

40. SO 2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x---------------- NEC Ceiling 3850 kt x---------------- Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

41. SO 2 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 2693 kt x---------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

42. Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

43. Projected SO 2 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

44. NO x emissions

45. Comparison of 2000 NO x inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

46. NO x emissions Assumed measures: –LCP Directive –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Standards for motorcycles and mopeds –Legislation on non-road mobile machinery –Implementation failure of EURO-II and III for HDT –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

47. NO x emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] 200520102015 Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- x---------------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

48. NO x emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] 200520102015 Solid fuelsLiquid fuelsNatural gasProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x----------------x---------------- NEC Ceiling 1800 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

49. NO x emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] x--------------- Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt No further climate measures With climate measures

50. NO x emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissions"Climate bonus" x---------------- NEC Ceiling 1800 ktx---------------- No further climate measures With climate measures

51. Projected NO x emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

52. Projected NO x emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

53. Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions]

54. VOC emissions

55. Comparison of 2000 VOC inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

56. VOC emissions Assumed measures: –Stage I Directive –Directive 91/441 (carbon canisters) –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Fuel Directive (RVP of fuels) –Solvents Directive –Product Directive (paints) –National legislation, e.g., Stage II

57. VOC emissions EU-15 [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 6510kt 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 20002005201020152020 Stationary combustionMobile sourcesFuel extraction+distributionIndustrial processesSolvents

58. VOC emissions New Member States [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 1640 kt

59. Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

60. Projected VOC emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

61. NH 3 emissions

62. Comparison of 2000 NH 3 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

63. NH 3 emissions Assumed measures: –No EU-wide legislation –National legislations –Current practice

64. NH 3 emissions EU-15 [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 3310 kt

65. NH 3 emissions New Member States [kt] x--------------- NEC Ceiling 866 kt

66. Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

67. Projected NH 3 emissions in 2010 compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

68. PM10 emissions

69. Comparison of 2000 PM10 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

70. PM10 emissions Assumed measures: –LCP Directive –Auto/Oil EURO standards –Standards for motorcycles and mopeds –Legislation on non-road mobile machinery –IPPC legislation on process sources –National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

71. Primary PM10 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

72. Primary PM10 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

73. Primary PM10 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

74. Primary PM10 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 20002005201020152020 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 20002005201020152020

75. PM2.5 emissions

76. Comparison of 2000 PM2.5 inventories RAINS vs. national estimates

77. Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

78. Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt] Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther"Climate bonus" No further climate measures With climate measures

79. Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

80. Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector New Member States [kt] Power generationIndustryHouseholdsTransportProcess emissionsWaste+agriculture No further climate measures With climate measures

81. Draft conclusions General downwards trend in emissions caused by –Legislation on transport emissions –Further penetration of natural gas –Large Combustion Plant Directive Larger improvements in New Member States Caveats: –National energy projections might differ from PRIMES –Further validation of emission estimates necessary –More information on effects of transport emission legislation required

83. Air quality impacts

84. PM2.5 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, biogenic, etc.) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

85. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2000 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000 Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

86. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2020, no further climate measures, Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

87. Inter-annual meteorological variability Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 1999 average 2003 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000

88. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2010 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2010 Baseline, no further climate measures Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

89. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2020 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2020 Baseline, no further climate measures Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

90. PM10 Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc.) included! Rural concentrations Annual mean Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

91. Anthropogenic contribution to PM10 2000 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2000 Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

92. Anthropogenic contribution to PM10 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

93. Anthropogenic contribution to PM10 2010 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2010 Baseline, no further climate measures Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

94. Anthropogenic contribution to PM10 2020 Rural concentrations annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for 2020 Baseline, no further climate measures Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003 EMEP Eulerian model

95. Ozone AOT40 Six months (April-September) Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

96. AOT40 2000 AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2000 Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

97. AOT40 2000 2010 2020 Six months AOT40 (forests) [ppm.hours] Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

98. AOT40 2010 AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2010 no further climate measures Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

99. AOT40 2020 AOT40 (ppm.hours) Emissions for 2020 no further climate measures Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W

100. Acidification of forest soils Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

101. Excess of forest critical loads 2000, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Emissions for 2000 Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W & CCE

102. Excess of forest critical loads 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

103. Excess of forest critical loads 2010, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Emissions for 2010 no further climate measures Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W & CCE

104. Excess of forest critical loads 2020, Provisional estimates! Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads Emissions for 2020 no further climate measures Using ecosystem-specific deposition! Based on preliminary critical loads data! Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology EMEP/MSC-W & CCE