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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Ilham Bachtiar, Kyle Castner, Michael Haberkorn, Yichen Sun Presented March 31, 2015
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Today’s Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Industry Analysis UNP Business Overview Stock Market Performance Financial Analysis Valuation Recommendation
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Quarter to Quarter GDP Growth Macroeconomic Overview Steady GDP performance in the past year with growth predicting to increase in 2015
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Macroeconomic Overview The rail road industry is based on trade Source: IBIS World
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Macroeconomic Overview Over 95% of rail road revenue is generated from bulk freight and intermodal services. Source: IBIS World
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Macroeconomic Overview Mexico total expected freight traffic expected to increase at 4.1% CAGR thru 2020 Percent Change in Value of U.S.-Mexico Freight Flows (Feb 2013-Feb2014) Source: U.S. Department of Transportation Mexico & OECD GDP Growth
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Rail Transportation Industry Outlook Growing o Higher Demand Macro recovery Organic growth o Strategic partnership with transportation providers o Higher profit margins due to upgrades o Continuing capital investments Source: IBIS World
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Industry Porter’s Five Forces Threat of New Entrants: Low Very capital intensive Threat of Substitutes: High Trucks: low oil price Barges, pipelines Rivalry Among Existing Firms: Medium Highly concentrated Buyers Power : Low - Lack of alternatives - Favorable margin Suppliers Power: High A few suppliers of locomotives & rail
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Chairman, CEO and CFO Chairman: Jack Koraleski o Worked within UNP since 1972 (Marketing and Finance) CEO: Lance Fritz o Worked with UNP since 2000 (Operations and Management) CFO: Robert Knight o Worked within UNP since 2000 (Finance, focus in automotive group)
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Compensation Charts Chairman CEO CFO
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Other Management Numbers
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Company Overview Vision : o Building America Values : o Focus on Performance o Ensure High Ethical Standards o Work as a Team
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SWOT Analysis StrengthsWeaknesses -Diversified Markets -Strong ROIC -Invest in Technology (PTC) -Transport Hazardous Materials -Labor Upheavals -Commodity volatility -Underfunded Pension OpportunitiesThreats -Increasing U.S. Population Base -Growing GDP -Increasing Environmental Consciousness -Governmental Regulations (STB) -Weather Related -RR security and safety -Low oil prices: truck, coal Source: IBIS World
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Business Division Freight revenues increased during 2014 compared to 2013 driven by 7% volume growth and core pricing gains of 2.5% In terms of Q (units) sold, Freight Sales increased by 3.2% Source: UNP 10-K
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Current Stock Information Source: Yahoo Finance MetricValue Current Stock Price $110.10 Trailing P/E19.15 Forward P/E14.8 Dividend Yield2.00% Market Cap 97.21 ($ billions) Est. PEG Ratio1.20 5 Year Dividend Growth 30.00% Current Holding: Apr-25-13 (2 for 1 Jun-9-14) 200 @ $74.10 Current Gain: $7198, 49%
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Stock Performance
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Financial Analysis Source: Bloomberg
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Cost of Capital
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Revenue Projection
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DCF
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Comp Set (Product Segmentation)
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Comp Ratios and Info
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Comparable Valuation
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Recommendation Current price below 20 and 200 Day MA. 20 Day MA above 200 Day MA Momentum Steady growth projections Growth DCF Valuation $74.71 Comparable Analysis Valuation $106.27 Current Stock Price $110.10 SELL 100 Shares Limit $108 Currently owned: 200 shares Current Gain $7,198, 49% Current Holding
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