1. Management of technology and development Exercise 1 Sanja Marinkovic

2. Scientific forecasting Two approaches in development of scientific forecasting: Trend extrapolation from the past and application to the future Consideration of cause-effect relationships

3. Forecasting model Input  data  intuition Output Predictions Quantitative data Qualitative data Time Probability

4. Output of forecasting Quantitative data Qualitative data Time Probability

5. F orecasting methods Exploratory methods Normative methods

6. Important criteria in selecting the method Accuracy of methods Available data Time horizon Costs Simplicity in application

7. Delphi Method Exploratory and intuitive method Uses advantages of group opinion Overcomes obstacles which appear in group work

8. Some facts NAME: Oracle of Ancient Greece FIRST USED: in 1950s by RAND Corporation in the USA COLD WAR APPLICATION (Question related to likely number of USSR nuclear missiles)

9. Delphi Method Qualitative research method with quantitative elements Relies on the judgment of a panel of experts Iterative process, taking place over a number of ‘rounds’

10. Delphi Method Key features Anonymity of individuals Iterative process, ‘rounds’ with controlled feedback Statistical calculation Questionnaire

11. Application of Delphi method is adequate when we need: Subjective assessment The experts of different profiles Heterogeneous participants Large groups … when we need: Subjective assessment The experts of different profiles Heterogeneous participants Large groups … if there are : Difficulties when working face to face High travel costs Difficulties due to different value systems Limited Time Language barriers Problems related to domination Disagreements... if there are : Difficulties when working face to face High travel costs Difficulties due to different value systems Limited Time Language barriers Problems related to domination Disagreements...

12. Steps in conducting Delphi Method 1. Determine the coordination group 2. Determine the expert group 3. Composing the questionnaire FIRST ROUND SECOND ROUNDTHIRD ROUND.... ROUND: Sending questionnaires Filling in the questionnaires Statistical calculation and feedback to expert group

13. Presentation of results Statistical measures Graphical presentation Verbal description

14. Questions in Delphi TIME NEEDS POSSIBILITIES EFFECTS CONDITIONS

15. Variations in answers o (optimistic) m (expected) p (pessimistic) x 1 answer3 answers

16. In how many years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Year 20072008 200 9 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 Question Predictions 1 2 3 4 5 6 Example of Questionnaire Expert no.____ Round no.____

17. In how many years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Year 20072008 200 9 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 Expert Predictions 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x Question no.___ _____ Round

18. Statistical calculation (1 answer) t n - average time of occurrence f i - frequency Dispersion Dispersion Standard deviation Standard deviation

19. In how many years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Year 2007 200 8 2009 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 1 420 1 520 1 6 Expert Predictions 1 o mp 2 m 3 omp 4 o mp 5 m 6 omp 7 m

20. Statistical calculation (3 answers) r 1, r 2 i r 3 are given by PERT method r 1 =1, r 2 =4 i r 3 =1 r 4 =36

21. Overall expected time of occurrence and dispersion are calculated by equations :

22. Probability of occurrence

23. Assignment Select the industry/organization adequate for conducting Delphi forecasting Prepare a list of 10 questions for Delphi questionnaire relevant for forecasting future developments in the environment that could affect organizations in selected industry