1. Montgomery County Travel Forecasting Model Validation — Status Report — Status Report Presented To: TPB Travel Forecasting Subcommittee By: Montgomery County Department of Park and Planning M-NCPPC March 18, 2005 Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC

2. Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC

3. Montgomery County Demographic Facts Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Year 2000 HH Pop.Total Pop. Population: 863,910873,341 Adj. Emp. (a) Total Emp. Employment: 475,020 479,800 Note: (a) Applied MWCOG Employment Adjustment Factor: 0.99

6. Montgomery County’s TRAVEL/2 Model Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC 4-Step Model EMME/2 PM Peak only Validation Year: 1998

7. Why Adopt MWCOG’s Model? Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Cost savings and more sharing of resources – Cost savings and more sharing of resources – As the MPO of the region, MWCOG is federally funded and has the ability to devote more resources (staff and funds) in support of travel forecasting than Montgomery County. Consistency with the regional process – Consistency with the regional process – Direct access to regional networks and data prepared for other jurisdictions in the region. More input to MWCOG’s process – More input to MWCOG’s process – More of an opportunity to develop and review inputs to the MWCOG process.

8. Why Adopt MWCOG’s Model? (Continue) Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Credibility – Credibility – MWCOG goes through a very rigorous peer-review process and must meet federal requirement for travel modeling. Better integration with GIS – Better integration with GIS – TP+ has ability to read ArcGIS shape files. MWCOG has developed numerous tools & databases to support data exchange between travel model and GIS. Tech & Knowledge Sharing Tech & Knowledge Sharing – Base of local users, including MWCOG, BMC and several local jurisdictions would permit the sharing of techniques and knowledge.

9. Converting MWCOG’s V2.1D Model 2000 Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Zones Zones – – 318 TAZ vs. MWCOG’s 308 TAZ in Montgomery Co. – – Additional zones due to Takoma Park annexation in 1997 (Montgomery and Prince George’s county boundary change); more details around Metro stations Demographic Data Demographic Data – – Cooperative Forecasting Round 6.4A by 318 TAZ, with jurisdictional employment adjustment factor (0.99 for Montgomery County)

10. Converting MWCOG’s V2.1D Model 2000 (Continue) Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Network Network – Highway: – Highway: more links & attributes in Montgomery County; and some updates/corrections outside of the county – Transit: – Transit: Modifications required to accommodate highway network changes

11. Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Montgomery County TAZ and Highway Network 2000 by Facility Type

12. Model Validation Adjustments Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Adjustments Adjustments (1) Trip Generation Adjustment Factors – HBW (at Census Tract level) (2) Trip Distribution K-factors – HBW (at “Super District” Level, 12 in Montgomery Co.) (3) Trip Generation Factors – HBS, HBO, NHB (4) Highway Network Coding – US29, etc.

13. Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC

14. Model Validation Data Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Data: Data: CTPP 2000 & Screenline Counts * Census Adjustment Factors to convert workers to trips (based on Metro Area Pop. 500K-1000K)

15. CTPP 2000 Data Worker to Trips Conversion Based on Determine modal composition of workers (CTPP) Determine metro area size Choose appropriate factors   Absenteeism   Mode Shift   Multiple Trips Assume trip chaining factor = 2.0 (daily model) Calculate composite conversion factors

16. Model Validation Tests Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Other Tests on Adjustments: Other Tests on Adjustments:   Trip Generation Factors – HBW P’s Tried only adjust Productions using trip distribution table and decided to adjust both P’s and A’s using TG tables   Trip Distribution K-factors – HBS, HBO, NHB Tried and decided not to adjust non-work purposes

17. Model Validation Findings/Results Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Corrected general underestimation of commuter travel Corrected general underestimation of commuter travel   Within County   To/from Prince Georges and Frederick   From DC Non-work travel?? Non-work travel??

18. Model Validation Findings/Results Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Changes in trip purpose mix (graphics to follow) Changes in trip purpose mix (graphics to follow)

19. Model Validation Findings/Results Commuters Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Comparison of CTPP 2000 and Estimated Travel Montgomery County

20. Model Validation Measure - TLF Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Commuter Trip Length Frequency - shorter Commuter Trip Length Frequency - shorter

21. Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC

22. Next Steps Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Mode Choice Model Validation Mode Choice Model Validation Traffic Assignment Validation Traffic Assignment Validation Comparison with TRAVEL/2 PM Peak Model Comparison with TRAVEL/2 PM Peak Model

23. Challenges/Lessons Learned Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC Data, Data, Data! Data, Data, Data! Network, Network, Network! Network, Network, Network!

24. Acknowledgements Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC MWCOG MWCOG – data files, discussion, & technical support – data files, discussion, & technical support Consultant Michael Baker Jr.,Inc. Consultant Michael Baker Jr.,Inc. – technical guidance, data, & model validation – technical guidance, data, & model validation M-NCPPC Prince George’s County Staff M-NCPPC Prince George’s County Staff – sharing ideas and data, & comments – sharing ideas and data, & comments M-NCPPC Montgomery County Modeling Staff M-NCPPC Montgomery County Modeling Staff – Yetta McDaniel and Ronald Vaughn – Yetta McDaniel and Ronald Vaughn (Network/GIS/Counts)

25. Questions? Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC ?