1. Overview – GKSS Institute for Coastal Research Hans von Storch (Speaker) 10. November 2009, CAS YIC, Yantai

2. Institute for Coastal Research of GKSS Research Center Key research questions addressed by the GKSS coastal research program are How is global change affecting the coastal system? What is the present state and present change of the coastal zone? How can we reliably and cost-effectively monitor coastal processes?

3. Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS cooperates with ZMAW and AWI Mission The GKSS Research program advances fundamental coastal science and provides a scientific basis for rational coastal management. Our approach integrates basic research on climate, ecosystem diversity, and ecological chemistry in the coastal zone with innovative applied perspectives, including regional impacts of Global Change. Coastal Change: long term trends and extreme events Observation and Information for Coastal Management Coastal Diversity: key species and food webs Chemical Interactions: ecological functions and effects Research Topics

4. Observational systems Stand alone systems: wave rider buoys, wave radar and pole systems Operational measuring systems on board of ships (FerryBox) Measures and systems for remote sensing Research vessels “Ludwig Prandtl” and “Storch” Laboratories equipped with: GC-MSD, LC-MS/MS, GC-MS/MS … DKRZ (German Climate Computing Centre) Various environmental system models: regional atmospheric models CLM and REMO hydrodynamic model TRIM wave models HYPA-S, k-model, WAM atmospheric transport and transformation model CMAQ ^ BALTEX Secretariat Climate Office LOICZ - IPO Infrastructure of Institute for Coastal Research

5. Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS : part of North German coastal science network DKRZ climate, physics coastal applications Climate, ecosystems, monitoring

6. Two key projects ICON / COSYNA – development of a pre- operational system for monitoring coastal seas. CoastDat – description of long term variability and construction of scenarios of possible futures states. Additional other important but somewhat smaller projects

7. Human Dimension in the Coastal Zones KSO Overview – Institut for Coastal Research - System Analysis and Modelling Hans von Storch Director

8. Division “Coastal Climate” Reconstruction of past and ongoing climate change in the coastal and shelf sea areas (wind, waves, storm surges, sea level, temperature, …) Scenarios of possible future developments Areas: Mainly North Sea, first studies also on Baltic Sea, polar and tropical areas Maintenance of coastDat

9. Applications: past and future marine weather in N Europe Globale development (NCEP) Dynamical Downscaling REMO or CLM Simulation with barotropic model of North Sea Cooperation with a variety of governmental agencies and with a number of private companies downscaling cascade for constructing variable regional and local marine weather statistics

10. Baroclinic storms in N Europe Problem for synoptic systems solved by CoastDat@GKSS in N Europe, using RCM spectrally nudged to NCEP - retrospective analysis 1958-2005 - good skill with respect to statistics, but not all details are recovered. Weisse, R., H. von Storch and F. Feser, 2005: Northeast Atlantic and North Sea storminess as simulated by a regional climate model 1958-2001 and comparison with observations. J. Climate 18, 465-479

11.  Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years)  Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe  “Standard” model systems (“frozen”)  Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances.  Data freely available. Applications  many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts  economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and risks) and shipbuilding company  Public information www.coastdat.de

12. Scenarios for Northern Germany

13. Scenarios 2030, 2085 Only the effect of changing weather conditions is considered, not the effect of water works such as dredging the shipping channel.

14. 21 October - Zahn, M., and H. von Storch, 2009: A longterm climatology of North Atlantic Polar Lows. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press A dynamical downscaling of the 6-hourly 1948-2006 NCEP/NCAR re-analyses for the subarctic region of the North Atlantic has been used to derive a climatology of polar lows by means of a tracking algorithm based on the simulated bandpass filtered MSLP-fields. This climatology is consistent with the limited observational evidence in terms of frequency and spatial distribution. The climatology exhibits strong year-to-year variability but weak decadal variability and a negligible trend. A Canonical Correlation Analysis describes the conditioning of the formation of polar lows by characteristic meridional seasonal mean flow regimes, which favor cold air outbreaks and upper air troughs.

15. Division “Regional Atmospheric Modelling and Statistics” Major research areas –Further developing of the regional atmospheric climate model CCLM (COSMO-CLM) –Detection and attribution on the regional scale –Wind over land –Transferability of regional atmospheric climate models –Dynamical Downscaling

16. 4 May - Bhend, J., and H. von Storch, 2009: Consistency of observed temperature trends in the Baltic Sea catchment area with anthropogenic climate change scenarios, Boreal Environment Research, accepted Abstract: When investigating a human contribution to the observed climate change, often detection and attribution studies are sought after. However, for regional scale climate change, a human influence is often not detectable due to the increasing variability with decreasing spatial aggregation and limitations in modelling regional scale climate. Nevertheless, one can investigate if anthropogenic forcing is a plausible explanation for the observed changes. Therefore, we compare the most recent trends in surface temperature over land with anthropogenic climate change projections from regional climate model simulations. We analyze patterns of change with different spatiotemporal resolution. The observed annual area mean changes in daily mean temperature are consistent with the anthropogenic climate change signal. In contrast, we find little consistency in both the seasonal cycle and the spatial variability of the modelled and projected changes.

17. Regional JJA temperatures Bhend, J., and H. von Storch, 2007:, Climate Dynamics,

18. Δ=0.05% Regional DJF precipitation Bhend, J., and H. von Storch, 2007:, Climate Dynamics,

19. Division “Modelling for the Assessment of Coastal Systems“ Model supported interpretation of long-term monitoring data: - biological long-term observations at Helgoland and other station - monitoring of oil-contaminated beached birds Transport processes, long term simulations: - Water exchange between tidal basins and the North Sea - planned: Sediment transport in the Elbe estuary Model developments: - Nested model for the North Sea and coastal regions, including thermodynamics (TRIM) - With BAW: Interface between the morphodynamic model SediMorph and TRIM → Application to the Sylt-Rømø Bight. - PELETS: Toolbox for the evaluation of Lagrangian ensemble simulations (transport rates and times, residence times…),

20. Example: Melanitta nigra 9. September - Alena Chrastansky, Ulrich Callies and David M. Fleet: Estimation of the impact of prevailing weather conditions on the occurrence of oil-contaminated dead birds on the German North Sea coast. accepted for publication in Environmental Pollution Issue: chronical pollution of North sea with oil Method: modell-based reconstruction of the drift of oil- and oil-contaminated bird corpsess, using CoastDat wind and current data Result: (1) Interannual variability compares with empircal data about finding of dead, oil-polluted birds along the beaches. (2) Main cause of inter-annual variability likely due to weather variations not to regulation of shipping.

21. Division „Environmental Chemistry“ Issues: - chemistry of harmful substances in the coastal and marine environment, e.g.: persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic chemical compounds (pbt - substances or „POPs“) - occurrence, input sources and distribution pathways of pbt‘s on different temporal and spatial scales - importance and variability of PAH emissions (from ship- and land-based sources) for the deposition into the North and Baltic Seas - experimental data on the occurrence, input sources and distribution pathways for substances of emerging concern, such as polyfluorinated compounds, brominated flame retardants,... Scientific tools: modern analytical instrumentation (HPLC-MS/MS; GC-MS/MS) and a state- of-the-art chemistry and transport model (CMAQ)

22. sum in 2000 (in tons) Example: Deposition of Benzo(a)Pyrene into the Baltic Sea 0 2 ng L - 1 3 4 1 Ocean Data View Chemistry Transport Modelling Analytical work POPs in the Coastal Marine Environment Example: Sum concentration of polyfluorinated in the German Bight and a part of the Baltic Sea

23. Division “Model Supported Monitoring and Forecasting Systems” Use numerical modelling to (1) optimise the integration of observing systems. (2) extend (synthetic) data coverage (3) provide consistent information (including state estimates and forecasts) (4) improve sampling strategies COSYNA (Coastal Observation System for Northern and Arctic Seas); Synergy between observations and modelling. Model development ocean wave (sea state) models: WAM, k-model suspended matter transport models

24. Division Human dimensions of coastal zones changes Reconstruction of the regional cultural context on a historical, functional and perceptional basis Analysis of social values, problem perceptions, institutional networks and communication in the context of coastal management and the development of offshore wind energy in the German north Sea pilot study on risk perception and hazard management in the European Wadden Sea Compilation and analysis of results of Survey of the Perceptions on Climate Scientists About Global Warming

25. The International BALTEX Secretariat at GKSS Major tasks of the Secretariat: to support the BALTEX Science Steering Group and all Working Groups and Panels in their activities, and to provide preliminary reviews of their work, to maintain connections with all participating research groups and with all operational data and numerical modelling and data centres within BALTEX, to prepare for international BALTEX Conferences and Workshops and provide assistance for reports to the GEWEX and CEOP Science Steering Groups, and other relevant international groups, to prepare BALTEX related publications and posters, including the International BALTEX Secretariat Report and the BALTEX Newsletter, to maintain a dedicated BALTEX web site www.baltex-research.eu. GKSS hosts and finances the International BALTEX Secretariat. Staff: Dr. Hans-Jörg Isemer (head), Dr. Marcus Reckermann, Silke Köppen e-mail: baltex@gkss.de

26. BACC = BALTEX Assessment for Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region has been compiled in 2005 to2007 with organizational guidance of the international BALTEX secretariat at GKSS and coordinated with the Helsinki Commission HELCOM. The book has been published in January 2008 A second review is planned to be published in 2012. http://www.baltex-research.eu/BACC/Introduction1.html

27. North German Climate Office@GKSS An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning

28. Downscaling SE Asian marine weather We have implemented the dynamical downscaling approach for SE Asian marine weather. The key question is – will we master the description of typhoons? Done: Case studies and seasons – formation of typhoons induced by large scale dynamics and NOT by initial values. Presently under examination: Continuous 6-decade simulations constrained by NCEP global re-analyses. Feser, F.,and H. von Storch, 2008: Regional modelling of the western Pacific typhoon season 2004, Meteor. Z. 17 (3), 1-10. DOI: 10.1127/0941- 2948/2008/0282 Feser, F., and H. von Storch, 2008: A dynamical downscaling case study for typhoons in SE Asia using a regional climate model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 1806-1815

29. A case study: Simulating tropical storm Winnie (August 1997) with regional atmospheric model CLM

30. 12 TCs in Seaso n 2004 only 10 were found in CLM simulation Following Zhang et al., 2007. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.

32. Complete simulation of 1948-2007 using CLM with 0.5º grid resolution and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis Spectral nudging of scales larges than about 800 km. Results are new; thus may be subject to future revisions!

33. Criteria have subjectively been selected so that the mean number of TCs detected in the simulation is about equal to the mean number given in the best track data.

34. Conclusions (Some) typhoons can be described by regional atmospheric models run in the climate mode. But, downscaled (simulated) TCs are too weak in terms of core pressure, maximum pressure fall and maximum sustained wind. We need better data for validation. Preliminary results concerning change -Strong year-to-year variability -Little decadal variability -No overall trend in numbers -Slight upward trends in minimum pressure and max wind since 1990s.

35. Next workshop: 11+12 March 2009, Taipei or Tainan, Taiwan