1. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 1 October 20, 2004 Overview of 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ed Szoke* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory Forecast Research Division LAPS Group Boulder, Colorado *Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

2. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 2 October 20, 2004 Outline ● Overview of the very active Atlantic hurricane season of 2004 ● Long IR loop and other interesting images found here here ● Examination of Jeanne on the AWIPS workstation with a localization to the Melbourne, Florida WFO ● KMA typhoons

3. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 3 October 20, 2004 Montage of the 4 storms that hit Florida

4. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 4 October 20, 2004 3 storms crossing near the same point in central Florida

5. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 5 October 20, 2004 Tracks of Atlantic 2004 named storms (16 total)

6. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 6 October 20, 2004 Saffir Simpson Scale and color code used in tracks

7. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 7 October 20, 2004 16 named storms and 6 major hurricanes in 2004 was way above normal

8. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 8 October 20, 2004 Names and strength of 2004 Atlantic storms

9. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 9 October 20, 2004 Track of Bonnie (At landfall 35 knots/1005 mb) 35 1005

10. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 10 October 20, 2004 Track of Charley (At landfall 120 knots/941 mb/Category 4) 35 1005

11. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 11 October 20, 2004 Track of Frances (At landfall 90 knots/951 mb/Category 2) 35 1005

12. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 12 October 20, 2004 Track of Ivan (At landfall 115 knots/943 mb/Category 4) At this site is some great high resolution visible imagery of Ivanthis site 35 1005

13. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 13 October 20, 2004 Track of Jeanne (At landfall 105 knots/953 mb/Category 3) 35 1005

14. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 14 October 20, 2004 Floridians tried to keep a sense of humor through all this....

15. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 15 October 20, 2004

16. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 16 October 20, 2004

17. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 17 October 20, 2004

18. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 18 October 20, 2004 Hurricane forecasting in the U.S.: Who does what? ● National scale hurricane watches and warnings are done by the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami, Florida ● Local offices incorporate these into their forecasts ● Map of Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)

19. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 19 October 20, 2004 TPC Forecasts ● Four times per day main products issued (every 6 h) ● 3 day graphic of hurricane track ● 5 day graphic of hurricane track ● Strike probability graphic and statement ● Public statement ● Forecast advisory (text) ● Technical discussion ● With updates in between ● Updates to Public statement

20. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 20 October 20, 2004 TPC Forecasts - Example of 3-day graphic

21. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 21 October 20, 2004 TPC Forecasts - Example of 5-day graphic

22. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 22 October 20, 2004 TPC Forecasts - Example of strike probability graphic

23. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 23 October 20, 2004 WFO Forecasts – Example of GFE created graphic

24. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 24 October 20, 2004 WFO Forecasts – Example of GFE created graphic

25. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 25 October 20, 2004 WFO Forecasts – Example of GFE created graphic-Wind threat

26. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 26 October 20, 2004 Why was Florida hit so much? Is it a “message” for our next election?

27. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 27 October 20, 2004 Was Japan the “Florida” of the West Pacific?

28. Hurricane lecture for KMA Ed Szoke 28 October 20, 2004 Now let's look at AWIPS and Jeanne