1. Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University azclimate.asu.edu Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Update to the Arizona Interagency Coordinating Group November 6, 2012

3. WY 2010 to April Precipitation Comparison Colorado River Basin WY 2012 to April WY 2011 to April

4. October 30, 2012 May 1, 2012 National Drought Monitor Comparison (Short-Term) Nov 1, 2011

5. Long Term Drought Status Comparison October 2011 April 2012 October 2012

6. WY 2012 Jan-Apr 2012 Precipitation Oct-Dec 2011

7. Precipitation in Selected Watersheds for Past 19 Years

8. Mohave County: Spring – Dry vegetation, high forage loss, high wildfire danger, low reservoirs, dry springs. Fall – after monsoon significant greening in many areas, but still very dry in many locaitons including the Kingman area. Impacts

9. Pima County – Drying stockponds and dry grasses in pasture land. Stage One Drought continues. Impacts

10. Thank you ! Questions ? Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University 480-965-0580 selover@asu.edu http://azclimate.asu.edu

11. Winter 2012-2013 Outlook Gary Woodall National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ www.weather.gov/phoenix

12. El Nino Winter Impacts

13. La Nina Impacts

14. Arizona Impacts  El Nino winters…  Mild/cool temperatures, usually wetter than normal  La Nina winters…  Warm temperatures, drier than normal  Neutral winters…  Near normal temperatures overall, varying amounts of precip (other factors in play)

15. Sea Surface Temperatures Anomalies: difference between observed and normal temperatures “Nino Regions” used in study and research. Nino 3.4 usually has the strongest signals

16. The El Nino/la Nina Cycle El Nino La Nina

17. The Outlook...

18. Outlook: Jan/Feb/Mar Three-month averages Shading indicates chances of above/below normal Precip outlook consistent with neutral winters Modest odds for above- normal temperatures

19. Outlook: Jun/Jul/Aug 2013 Three-month averages Shading indicates chances of above/below normal “Traditional” warm temperature signal Small-scale features drive summer precip

20. Summary  El Nino and La Nina can be big influences on our winter weather  Guidance suggests a neutral to weak El Nino winter (no La Nina!)  The odds are tilted toward warmer than normal temps, no odds on precip  A look ahead at Summer 2013 shows odds again tilted toward warmer than normal temps, no odds on precip

21. Questions? Contact us! Telephone: 602-275-0073 Home page: www.weather.gov/phoenix Facebook: www.facebook.com, search for “National Weather Service Phoenix” Twitter: www.twitter.com/NWSPhoenix E-mail: gary.woodall@noaa.gov