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Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University azclimate.asu.edu Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Update to the Arizona Interagency Coordinating Group November 6, 2012
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WY 2010 to April Precipitation Comparison Colorado River Basin WY 2012 to April WY 2011 to April
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October 30, 2012 May 1, 2012 National Drought Monitor Comparison (Short-Term) Nov 1, 2011
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Long Term Drought Status Comparison October 2011 April 2012 October 2012
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WY 2012 Jan-Apr 2012 Precipitation Oct-Dec 2011
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Precipitation in Selected Watersheds for Past 19 Years
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Mohave County: Spring – Dry vegetation, high forage loss, high wildfire danger, low reservoirs, dry springs. Fall – after monsoon significant greening in many areas, but still very dry in many locaitons including the Kingman area. Impacts
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Pima County – Drying stockponds and dry grasses in pasture land. Stage One Drought continues. Impacts
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Thank you ! Questions ? Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University 480-965-0580 selover@asu.edu http://azclimate.asu.edu
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Winter 2012-2013 Outlook Gary Woodall National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ www.weather.gov/phoenix
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El Nino Winter Impacts
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La Nina Impacts
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Arizona Impacts El Nino winters… Mild/cool temperatures, usually wetter than normal La Nina winters… Warm temperatures, drier than normal Neutral winters… Near normal temperatures overall, varying amounts of precip (other factors in play)
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Sea Surface Temperatures Anomalies: difference between observed and normal temperatures “Nino Regions” used in study and research. Nino 3.4 usually has the strongest signals
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The El Nino/la Nina Cycle El Nino La Nina
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The Outlook...
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Outlook: Jan/Feb/Mar Three-month averages Shading indicates chances of above/below normal Precip outlook consistent with neutral winters Modest odds for above- normal temperatures
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Outlook: Jun/Jul/Aug 2013 Three-month averages Shading indicates chances of above/below normal “Traditional” warm temperature signal Small-scale features drive summer precip
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Summary El Nino and La Nina can be big influences on our winter weather Guidance suggests a neutral to weak El Nino winter (no La Nina!) The odds are tilted toward warmer than normal temps, no odds on precip A look ahead at Summer 2013 shows odds again tilted toward warmer than normal temps, no odds on precip
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Questions? Contact us! Telephone: 602-275-0073 Home page: www.weather.gov/phoenix Facebook: www.facebook.com, search for “National Weather Service Phoenix” Twitter: www.twitter.com/NWSPhoenix E-mail: gary.woodall@noaa.gov
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