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Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis EIA and NASEO National Association of State Energy Officials February.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis EIA and NASEO National Association of State Energy Officials February."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis EIA and NASEO National Association of State Energy Officials February 6, 2014 | Washington, DC By Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator Energy Information Administration Many shared interests

2 Current winter situation Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 2

3 Nationally, heating degree days are well above last winter, but near NOAA’s 30-year norms. Recently, the Midwest has been very cold Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 3 ----- February 2 – 8 -----Observed seasonal accumulations thru Feb 1 Census divisionTotal Deviation from normal Deviation from last yearTotal Deviation from normal Deviation from last year Deviation from normal (percent) Deviation from last year (percent) New England260-18-30380153373111 Middle Atlantic2601-17342236412114 East North Central35470624027212584617 West North Central403110153421385536215 South Atlantic101-37-271728-1824917 East South Central18412412399144400620 West South Central189701321640124394832 Mountain24244762843-28483-93 Pacific13923241524-310-91-17-6 United States223263826861314013 Note: Normal reflects average over 1981-2010 Source: National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Climate Prediction Center

4 NOAA forecast calls for below normal temperatures across much of the Midwest through February 15; somewhat improved after Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 4 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, made February 5 6-10 day outlook 8-14 day outlook

5 Regional share of all U.S. households by primary heating fuel Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey National share of homes by primary space heating fuel Regional share of homes by primary space heating fuel (across Census Regions) propane 4.5% heating oil 5.5% natural gas 48.2%

6 Conway (KS) price premium over Mt. Belvieu (TX) grew rapidly in late January, but has since narrowed Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 6 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters, data through February 5 propane and propylene spot prices dollars per gallon

7 State-reported residential retail prices for states in the Midwest Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 7 1/6/141/13/141/20/141/27/142/3/14 Residential retail price (dollars per gallon, excluding taxes) Indiana2.8062.8492.9394.2154.265 Iowa1.9601.9972.5844.7093.590 Kentucky2.5172.5402.5773.7853.852 Michigan2.5322.5752.6383.6113.766 Minnesota2.3222.3302.4394.6103.967 Missouri2.2512.2652.4333.9973.672 Nebraska1.9111.9202.0054.0733.357 North Dakota2.2632.2732.3224.5693.839 Ohio2.8902.9502.9993.7313.908 South Dakota2.0652.0812.0884.1073.664 Wisconsin2.1942.2412.2764.4903.945 Note: Illinois, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee do not report information Source: EIA, State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through February 5 http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/

8 Rapidly changing energy outlook Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 8

9 Key results from the AEO2014 Reference case 9 Growing domestic production of natural gas and oil continues to reshape the U.S. energy economy, with crude oil approaching the 1970 all-time high of 9.6 million barrels per day Light-duty vehicle energy use declines sharply reflecting slowing growth in vehicle miles traveled and accelerated improvement in vehicle efficiency With continued growth in shale gas production, natural gas becomes the largest source of U.S. electric power generation, surpassing coal by 2035, and boosting production and natural gas consumption in manufacturing Strong growth in domestic natural gas production supports increased exports of both pipeline and liquefied natural gas With strong growth in domestic oil and gas production, U.S. dependence on imported fuels falls sharply Improved efficiency of energy use and a shift away from carbon-intensive fuels keep U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions below their 2005 level through 2040 Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

10 Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high 10 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Tight oil Alaska Other lower 48 onshore Lower 48 offshore ProjectionsHistory 2012 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

11 Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market 11 transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release ProjectionsHistory 2012 59% Motor gasoline Jet fuel CNG/LNG 12% 13% 3% 44% 31% 3% 4% Other* Diesel 22% 2030 47% 13% 3% 30% 1% 2040 Ethanol 4% 5% *Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

12 U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future 12 U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release ProjectionsHistory 2012 Consumption Domestic supply Net exports 100 75 50 25 0 -25 billion cubic feet per day Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

13 13 U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release ProjectionsHistory Industrial* Electric power Commercial Residential Transportation ** 11.2 4.1 1.7 11.0 3.6 9.1 4.2 0.7 8.5 2.9 *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

14 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year Alaska LNG exports Pipeline exports to Mexico Pipeline exports to Canada Lower 48 states LNG exports Pipeline imports from Canada LNG imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release 14 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 billion cubic feet per day 5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day) 2.0 tcf of imports (5.4 bcf/day) U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025 ProjectionsHistory 2012 2025 Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

15 Energy-related CO 2 emissions remain below the 2005 level over the projection period 15 carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Projections History 2012 2005 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 9% below the 2005 level in 2020 and 7% below the 2005 level in 2040. Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

16 Expanded coverage of state-level data and wood Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 16

17 17 U.S. States Energy Portal Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

18 18 U.S. States Energy Portal Home Page (www.eia.gov/state/) Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

19 19 Pennsylvania Page (http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=PA) Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

20 20

21 21 Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

22 Wood energy data: collaboration to expand coverage Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 22 Improving EIA’s data series will require collaborative efforts with: –states through NASEO –Department of Agriculture/Forest Service –various parts of the wood industry Potential improvements include –covering more forms of wood consumption –standardizing pricing and Btu estimation –surveying wholesale and retail prices of wood products

23 Why wood matters Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014 23 Over 13 million homes use wood, including almost 3 million as the primary heating fuel Residential wood consumption is now close to fuel oil (between 500-600 trillion Btu) and expected to surpass fuel oil in our projections Collecting better wood data presents challenges –market lacks standardization –regulation of cordwood retailers varies by location –heat content varies by type of wood, dryness –some transactions may not involve a price

24 For more information 24 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.govwww.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steowww.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeowww.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieowww.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/merwww.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergywww.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/statewww.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drillingwww.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

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