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Greenbrier Hotel, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia June 17, 2011 Situation and Outlook for Corn and Soybeans Presented to: National Chicken Council Board of Directors
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U.S. Corn Supply and Demand May 11, 2011 2
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U.S. Corn Yield 1960-10 trend 1990-10 trend 158.7 May WASDE forecast based on expected planting progress as of May 15 th May 11, 2011 4
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Planting Progress, July Temps, and Corn Yields 2009, 2010, & 2011P Units 200920102011P Mid-May planting progress Percent planted 509266 Avg. July temperature Deg. f. 70.076.874.6 Final Yield Bu./ac. 164.7152.8158.7 Deviation from 1990-10 trend Bu./ac. + 7.7 - 6.6- 3.0 May 11, 2011 7
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U.S. Corn Supply and Demand June 9, 2011 8
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Planting Progress and Changes in Acreage Model results indicate changes from intended acreage: Declines totaling 1.95 million acres in following States: Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin Increases totaling 0.45 million acres in following States: Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska Illinois unchanged Net decline in planted area 1.5 million acres June 9, 2011 10
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Flood Events May flooding along the lower Ohio and Mississippi River valleys Early information suggests corn acreage losses from 100,000 to 150,000 acres June flooding in Missouri River valley Emergency discharges by Army Corps of Engineers through summer Early information suggests corn acreage losses of 250,000-300,000 acres Additional reduction in harvested area projected at 400,000 acres June 9, 2011 11
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Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, June 8, 2011, http://omaha.com/assets/images/OW599664.JPG http://omaha.com/assets/images/OW599664.JPG Forecast Missouri River Flood Zone June 9, 2011 12
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Renewable Fuel Standard Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. 13
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U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). 8.9 bil. gal. 14
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U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity Source: Production capacity from Renewable Fuels Association. RFS from Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. 2007 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 15
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Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs / Spot prices Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices. - 15 cents / gal. (6/10/11) 16
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Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) Ethanol $0.23 17
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Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Spreads Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. 45-cent blender credit (Ethanol – RBOB) Blending incentive (6/13/11) = $0.68 18
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U.S. Weekly Gasoline Production All Finished Blends and Ethanol Blends Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration. 19
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U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 9, 2011. 20
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U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand June 9, 2011 21
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Wheat (SRW) vs. Corn Futures CBOT July 2011 Contracts Source: USDA-AMS. Wheat =Corn lb. for lb. (1.07 price ratio) 22
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U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand June 9, 2011 23
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China Soybean Imports Million Tons 24
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U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand June 9, 2011 25
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U.S. Meat Production 26
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U.S. Protein Consumption Million Short Tons 27
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Soybean Meal Prices Dollars/Ton 28
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Soybean Meal – Corn Price Ratio Ratio 29
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U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand June 9, 2011 30
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U.S. Biodiesel Production 31
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Soybean Oil Price and Stocks-to-Use Cents per lb Percent 32
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U.S. Meat Production and Prices June 9, 2011 33
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U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds June 9, 2011 34
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End of Presentation June 9, 2011
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