1. Madan M. Dey Kehar Singh Carole R. Engle Aquaculture/Fisheries Center University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff IMPACT OF MARKETING, TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES ON U.S. CATFISH MARKETS: RESULTS FROM US-Catfish MODEL

2. Why Economic Modeling? U.S. industries have matured Affected by:  Dynamics of global economy  Federal, state policies  International trade Other segments of U.S. agriculture benefit from economic models.

3. Southern Regional Aquaculture Center Funded a project to Develop Economic Models of U.S. catfish & trout

4. Policy ExportImport ProductionConsumption Biological Environment Aquaculture Technology Policy, Institutions & Support Services Producers’ Profile Policy Consumers’ Profile US-Catfish Model: General Framework

5. Imported channel catfish U.S. farm-raised catfish Imported basa and tra US-Catfish Model Different Products

6. Changes in Catfish feed prices Effects of TCI advertising expenditures Effects of various anti-dumping tariff levels Effect of COOL (Country of Origin Labeling) Changes in U.S. per capita income Changes in exchange rates with U.S. $ Policy Options Considered

7. Behavioral Equations/Models

8. Farmers Processors Consumers Exporters/Importers

9. FARM-RAISED CATFISH SUPPLY EQUATION

10. CONSUMER DEMAND (SHARE) EQUATIONS

11. IMPORT DEMAND EQUATIONS

12. PROCESSORS’ SUPPLY EQUATIONS

13. PROCESSORS’ DEMAND OF U.S. FRAM-RAISED CATFISH EQUATION

14. Impact of Policies

15. Effects of Changes in Feed Prices A decrease in feed price would benefit the U.S. farm-raised catfish industry along with marginal gains to imported channel catfish and basa/tra.

16. Effects of Changes in TCI Advertisement Expenditure An increase in TCI expenditures would benefit U.S. farm-raised catfish marginally; however, it would reduce imports significantly.

17. Effects of Changes in Tariff on Basa/Tra Imported channel catfish would benefit more than U.S. farm-raised catfish with an increase in tariff levels on basa/tra imported from Vietnam

18. Effects of COOL COOL has benefited U.S. farm-raised catfish marginally, but has hurt channel catfish imports significantly. COOL has resulted in an increase in U.S. consumers and farmers’ surplus; however, U.S. processors’ surplus have declined marginally.

19. Effects of Changes in U.S. Per Capita Income Increase in U.S. per capita income would have a positive impact on the catfish industry as a whole, with a greater positive impact on imported channel catfish and imported basa/tra.

20. Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates Increased Exchange Rate (VND/USD):  Increase basa/tra imports  Decrease channel catfish import  Marginally expand U.S. farm-raised catfish market

21. Thanks to SRAC for financial support Thank you for your attention Would appreciate your Feedback