1. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Project Design Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Risks

2. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA LF Matrix: Assumptions The important events, pre-conditions, or decisions necessary for the achievement of the goals, objectives, outputs or activities. Link to statement of risks, for risk management.

3. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Assumptions Factors important for fulfilment of goals or objectives, but outside the project’s scope A project does not exist in a social, economic and political vacuum. For its success it is dependent on norms, laws, ordinances, policies, political will and commitment, allocation of funds, and perhaps many other things.

4. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA If you started with a Problem Tree Return to the problem tree Identify all the “other” contributing root causes of the problem being addressed; How much of the achievement of the objective or goal depends on addressing these other problems? = a clue on assumptions.

5. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Problem Tree / Cause + Effect Ground water pollution Industrial area spill Mechanic shop spill Agricultural Chemical use Landfill leaching Illegal dumping High dumping fees Poor access to landfill No collection service Poor landfill construction Poor waste management Higher cost of treatment Loss of aquifer Increased cost of finding & developing new aquifer Deflection of funds from other sector Nitrite poisoning Disease Loss of productivity Higher health costs

6. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA If you started with a Vision Identify other preconditions, constraints and hindrances; Do any of these constitute assumptions?

7. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Risks Refer to the probability and effect on the project of an assumption failing to be true.

8. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Risk Analysis and Risk Management Analysis of the risks affecting the project’s objectives and plans to avoid these risks. The persons / the project group that are responsible for the project must identify, analyse and assess different factors, which, in different ways, affect the possibilities available to the project to achieve its objectives.

9. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA External factors / risks: These are risks that exist outside the framework of the project (for example political developments, natural disasters, corruption etc.) It is most often the case that the project group cannot exert an influence on these risks.

10. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Internal factors / risks These are risks of the type that are possible for the project to exercise control over. They can be practical matters such as delays in deliveries, personnel turnover etc. In most cases project management can minimise the effects of these internal risks.

11. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA

12. Assumption Decision Tree

13. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Risk decision tree

14. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA For Today Check the assumptions, pre-conditions and risks associated with your project: –Internal: what are you going to do about them? –External: how serious are they? Use the decision tree(s) to determine whether or not you must redesign your project, or just have contingency plans ready.

15. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Quality Assurance Measuring progress – Indicators & Means of Verification

16. Quality assurance, monitoring and evaluation – indicators Describe how the level of performance or achievement action in the left-hand column will be measured. Specific in terms of unit of measure, time; target group & location if appropriate. May include quantified targets. Remember progress reports – even as activities! Make indicators SMART – specific, meaningful, available, reliable, time-related

17. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Indicators indicators It is important to think about the following when establishing indicators of the fulfilment of objectives and results: What shall the project achieve in the terms of quality? What shall the project achieve in terms of quantity? During which period of time? When shall the fulfilment of objectives have taken place? Which group is the target group? Which geographical region or sector is affected by the project?

18. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA Indicators & Verification An indicator shall be objectively verifiable. In other words, anybody shall be able to measure the results. Means of Verification: –How should the information be collected? –What source is most appropriate? –Who should do it? –When and how often? –What format are required?

19. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA

20. Reference Points In order to see if the situation has improved as a result of the project, it is necessary to know the basic facts about the situation prior to project start. Hence, it may be necessary to make a so- called baseline study. A specific target may also provide a reference.

21. A DVANCED I NTERNATIONAL C OURSE I N L OCAL E NVIRONMENTAL M ANAGEMENT I N U RBAN A REAS 2010 A FRICA For Today Review your project’s internal and external assumptions If possible determine their importance & probability of assumptions failing (risk) Review your indicators & means of verification Decide if you need a baseline survey Include programme in activities for monitoring indicators where appropriate.