2. Data Analytics and the Illinois Supreme Court Kane County Bar Association Appellate Practice Committee July 10, 2015 Kirk C. Jenkins Sedgwick LLP

3. The Value of Data Analytics Distinguishing Appellate Law from Trial Law Persuading a Panel, not a Single Decision-Maker The Science of Group Decision-Making Statistical Analysis of Judicial Behavior: Jurimetrics – dates back to 1941 Game Theory Microeconomic Theory Psychological Group Theories Restraints on Voting Individual Preferences Logistic Regression Models of Court Decision-Making

4. The Value of Data Analytics II Bringing Precision to Conventional Wisdom “The Supreme Court Doesn’t Grant to Affirm” “The Supreme Court Never Reviews Rule 23 Orders or Unanimous Decisions” “The Court Doesn’t Care What District the Decision Comes From” “Appellate decisions are getting longer” This pair or that pair of Justices “always votes together” Oral argument tells you nothing about the decision – the Justices are playing devil’s advocate, or talking to each other

5. The Value of Data Analytics III Lee Epstein, William M. Landes & Judge Richard A. Posner, The Behavior of Federal Judges: A Theoretical and Empirical Study of Rational Choice, (Cambridge: Harvard Univ. Press, 2013). “The better that judges are understood, the more effective lawyers will be both in litigating cases and, as important, in predicting the outcome of cases, thus enabling litigation to be avoided or cases settled at an early stage.”

6. The Supreme Court Data Library 629 civil cases, 2000-2014 More than 36,000 data points in the library Case Identifiers: Case Name Docket Number Before the Lower Courts: Appellate Court Basis for Appellate Jurisdiction Appeal Taken from Summary Judgment (Y/N) Area of the Law

7. The Supreme Court Data Library II Philosophical Coding of Appellate Court decision (C/L) Dissent before Appellate Court (Y/N) Appellate Court decision published (Y/N) Circuit Court or Board of original jurisdiction Trial Judge The Decision Process Before the Supreme Court: Date of Oral Argument Date of Decision Days under Submission Amici Result & Vote

8. The Supreme Court Data Library III The Opinions Length of Majority Opinion Length of Special Concurrences Length of Dissents Justice-by-Justice Data Vote Opinion (M/SC/D/joined SC or D) Philosophical Coding of Vote Recused (Y/N)

9. The Supreme Court Data Library IV Oral Arguments All Counsel Presenting Argument Justice-by-Justice, First Question (Appellant/Appellee/Rebuttal) Justice-by-Justice, Number and Order of Questions

10. Where the Docket Comes From

11. Which Circuit Courts? 1 1 2 2 5 5 7 7 4 4 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 3 3

12. Are Summary Judgments Easier?

13. Do Dissents Help?

14. Time Under Submission Lag Time between Argument and Decision 2010 129.6 2014 100.7 2010 129.6 2014 100.7 UNANIMOUS DECISIONS 2010 203.9 2014 193.8 2010 203.9 2014 193.8 DIVIDED DECISIONS  coming more quickly 100.7

15. Frequency of Unanimous Decisions

16. Are Dissents Sharper?

17. Reversal Rates by Appellate District

18. What Kinds of Cases are Granted?

19. Differing Reversal Rates?

20. Voting Dynamics – The Court’s Center Agreement Rates (Non-Unanimous Civil Cases, 2014)

21. Voting Dynamics – Counting to 4 The Fourth Vote

22. Oral Argument - Which Side Gets More Questions?

23. Hot & Cold Courts Fewest questions in a single argument (both sides represented) Russell v. SNFA, 2013 Fewest questions in a single argument (both sides represented) Russell v. SNFA, 2013 Most questions in a single civil argument In re Sophia G.L., 2008 Most questions in a single civil argument In re Sophia G.L., 2008 Most questions to an appellant In re Sophia G.L. (Reversed) Most questions to an appellant In re Sophia G.L. (Reversed) Most questions to an appellee Secura Insurance Company v. Illinois Farmers Insurance Co., 2009 (Reversed) Most questions to an appellee Secura Insurance Company v. Illinois Farmers Insurance Co., 2009 (Reversed) 81 57 44 8 8

24. Are More Questions a Bad Sign? – Avg. Questions per Argument

25. Does It Matter if the Court is Split?

26. Does It Matter if the Court is Closely Split?

27. Is the First Question the Majority Author?

28. Who Asks the Most Questions?

29. Average Questions per Argument

30. How Often is each Justice the First Questioner?

31. Does the Result Matter?

32. Justice Burke’s Question Patterns

33. Justice Burke & the First Question

34. Chief Justice Garman’s Question Patterns

35. Chief Justice Garman & the First Question

36. Justice Freeman & the First Question

37. Justice Kilbride’s Question Patterns

38. Justice Kilbride & the First Question

39. Justice Thomas’s Question Patterns

40. Justice Thomas & the First Question

41. Justice Karmeier’s Question Patterns

42. Justice Karmeier & the First Question

43. Justice Theis’s Question Patterns

44. Justice Theis & the First Question

45. Applying Our Conclusions In re Pension Reform Litigation, 2015

46. Result... Justice Karmeier for the Court 7-0 Affirmance 7-0 Affirmance

47. Applying Our Conclusions II Leetaru v. The Board of Trustees of Univ. of Illinois, 2015 – 210 days under submission

48. Result... Justice Karmeier for the Court Justice Burke dissenting 4-3 Reversal 4-3 Reversal

49. Applying Our Conclusions III Skokie Castings v. Illinois Insurance Guar. Fund, 2013 – 332 days under submission

50. Result … Justice Karmeier for the Court Justice Thomas dissenting Justice Kilbride dissenting 5-2 Affirmance 5-2 Affirmance

51. Lessons from the Data A side asked significantly more questions is in trouble – both overall, and with each Justice The first questioner may be writing the majority Chief Justice Garman, Justices Burke, Karmeier, Theis and to a degree Thomas – more active if writing, more likely to be the first question Treating Questions as a Tentative Opinion

52. Kirk C. Jenkins, Chair (also California) Agelo L. Reppas Kirk C. Jenkins, Chair (also California) Agelo L. Reppas Sedgwick’s Appellate Task Force Hall R. Marston Douglas L. Collodel Michael M. Walsh Matthew A. Reed Hall R. Marston Douglas L. Collodel Michael M. Walsh Matthew A. Reed S. Vance Wittie Robert C. Weill Erin E. Dardis Robert C. Weill Erin E. Dardis Aaron F. Mandel Peter C. Condron

53. Questions? Kirk C. Jenkins One N. Wacker Drive, #4200 Chicago, IL 60606 Tel: (312) 641-9050 Kirk.Jenkins@SedgwickLaw.com Google Plus: https://plus.google.com/+KirkJenkins/posts https://plus.google.com/+KirkJenkins/posts LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kirkcjenkins https://www.linkedin.com/in/kirkcjenkins Twitter:@KirkCJenkins @ISCReview Blogs: Appellate Strategist Illinois Supreme Court Review