1. Poverty, Participation and Panchayats Anirudh Krishna, Duke University

2. SELECTED FROM RESEARCH ON  Panchayats and Collective Action Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan  Democratic Participation Andhra, M.P, Rajasthan  Poverty, Education and Social Mobility Andhra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka

3. Poverty: A Dynamic Property Escaped Poverty Became Poor Net Poverty Reduction Rajasthan (35 villages) 11%8%3% Gujarat (36 villages) 9%6%3% Andhra (36 villages) 14%12%2%

4. Escape and Descent are parallel and concurrent Reasons for Escape differ from Reasons for Descent Separate policies are needed – to prevent descent, and to promote escape The News about Poverty

5. Major Reasons for Descent  Health and health-related expenses (59% in Rajasthan; 88% in Gujarat; 75% in Andhra)  Social expenses: death feasts, marriages ( 37% in Rajasthan; 49% in Gujarat; 69% Andhra )  High-interest private debt ( 86% in Rajasthan; 52% in Gujarat; 60% in Andhra )  Other location-specific reasons (24% in Andhra: non-delivering irrigation schemes in particular villages)

6. Major Reasons for Escape  Diversification of Income Sources (45% Gujarat, 70% Rajasthan, 51% Andhra)  Irrigation and farm improvement (29% Gujarat, 27% Rajasthan, 25% Andhra)  Jobs (many fewer)  Government assistance programs (paltry: 6% Gujarat, 7% Rajasthan, 6% Andhra)

7. Poverty Reduction Panchayats can make critical impacts by Improving Healthcare Promoting Upward Mobility… (also specific local causes…)

8. The Good News: Rapid Rise in Education Achievement Percentage with 5 or more years of formal education Age61+31-4021-2511-15 GenderFMFMFMFM Rajasthan11794623735475 Karnataka4272243517492 Source: Original data collected in 2006 from 20 Rajasthan and 20 Karnataka villages

9. Rising Functional Literacy (11-15-year-olds by caste group and gender) Caste groupOBCSCSTGeneral Gender FMFMFMFM Rajasthan 6279647624478784 Karnataka 94 86928682-- Source: Original data collected in 2006 from 20 Rajasthan and 20 Karnataka villages

10. Highest levels reached in 71 Rajasthan villages (last 10 years) Accountant (2)Lineman (7) Advocate (4)Panchayat Secy. (4) Computer Operator (4)Patwari (11) Constable (8)Peon (6) Clerk Typist (10)Sub-Inspector (4) Doctor (1)Schoolteacher (50) Driver (4)Soldier (Jawan) (32) Civil Engineer (2)Software Engineer (1) But severely limited upward mobility…

11. Highest levels reached in 20 Karnataka villages (last 10 years) Accountant (3)Lineman (2) Advocate (3)Panchayat Secy. (2) Computer Operator (4)Patwari (3) Constable (11)Peon (6) Clerk Typist (6)Nursing Asst. (1) Doctor (1)Schoolteacher (21) Driver (2)Soldier (Jawan) (8) Engineer (3)Veterinary Asst. (2)

12. Sharp Drop after Elementary Education Karnataka villages: Only 5.5 percent have more than 11 years of education Rajasthan villages: Only 3.1 percent have more than 11 years of education (These percentages nearly the same among 21-25 year-olds) Source: Original data

13. EDUCATION AND ASPIRATIONS 1. Rapidly rising demand for education, but 2. A sharp drop-off occurs soon after elementary school, and 3. Achievements and aspirations are both severely limited

14. Stated Career Aspirations ( Percent of 556 villagers, 14-22 years old and attending school) RAJASTHANKARNATAKA BETTER-PAID POSITIONS13%12% Accountant>1% Business Manager>1% Doctor2% Engineer3%4% Lawyer2%1% Senior Government3%1% Other well-paid1%2% LOW-PAID POSITIONS87%88% School Teacher43%39% Army or Police recruit24%17% Other low-level govt.15%22% Other low-paid private5%11%

15. PARALLEL STUDY: WHO BECOMES A SOFTWARE PROFESSIONAL? Detailed interviews with 150 newly recruited software engineers (random selection from three Bangalore-based firms) and HRD managers of these and other firms THREE SIGNIFICANT GAPS Rural Gap Wealth Gap Generational Education Gap – most significant Only between 4% and 7% of Indians qualify

16. Upward Mobility Panchayats’ roles?  Employment exchanges?  Secure transportation to high schools?  Teaching quality and quantity  Promoting role models (most promising)

17. Nj Health Nj Higher Education Nj Upward Mobility www.pubpol.duke.edu/krishna

18. What do you expect: If you were to make contact with a government official or political leader, will you get a response or will you be ignored? RajasthanAndhra 1: Will get a response: 41%46% 2: Will be ignored: 59%54% Access is a key issue…

19. Access is a problem, but faith in democracy remains strong: Question: Suppose a political leader arranges to increase your income by 50 percent forever but also asks to stay in power forever: no more elections will be held. Will you support this leader? Support or Strongly Support Very Poor (stages 1-3) 20% Poor (stages 4-5) 19% Middle (stages 6-8) 17% Better Off (stages 9+) 16%

20. Strong party identification, but parties do not solve the Access Problem for ordinary citizens:  91% of 2,291 respondents strongly identified themselves with one or another political party  Increase in party identification over seven years  But parties are centralized, top-down organizations, with no permanent presence at the grassroots  Rarely enable access upward

21. Who helps with Access in the following situations? (Rajasthan, 1997-98 data) Similar result in Andhra: more than 60% rely upon Naya Netas. Party Reps. Panchayat Leaders Caste Leaders Naya Netas Dealing with police or tahsil 6%5%20%62% Getting a bank loan 5%7%8%63% Replacing a non- performing teacher 4%18%11%64% Getting wage employment 4%11%8%70%