1. The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Manpower Survey (2013-14) Dinesh Nagi Presented at ABCD Cardiff 26t h April 2015

2. The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Survey 2014 (1/10/2013-30/9/2014) The Process Postal Survey Sent Mid September 2014 Supportive information obtained – RCP- AAC Unit – RCP- Workforce Survey 2013 – BMJ Careers Unit – JRCPTB

3. The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Survey 2014 (1/10/2013-30/9/2014) Results

4. Consultant Level Appointments 2006-14 Survey Year Number

5. Consultant Level Appointments New vs replacement posts Survey Year Number

6. Make of new appointments 200920102011201220132014 Retired191517162117 Left Posts556202226 New Posts233720171604 Total475743535947

7. Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012 Consultant expansion in specialty vs all specialties United Kingdom 2003–2012 Data upto 2012 (last RCP report available)

8. Number of Head Count and WTE YearHead countWTE 2014880759 2013876755 2012860739 2011849728 2010823701 2009791678 2008763652

9. Mean age at retirement 2009-10 was 62.7 yrs Age of those in post 2010-11 was 62.8 yrs 2011-12 was 62.3 yrs 2012-13 was 62.2 yrs 2013-14 was 62.3 yrs

10. Number of consultants who will reach 65 years of age over the next 10 years – by specialty Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012 RCP Survey Specialty20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Total % of speci alty Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus 14915121521201617193018823.7 All specialties1371591751862102582613043403383842,75222.6% Data upto 2012 (last RCP report available)

11. Annual Total Headcount and WTE CountryPopulationHeadcountHead count per 100,000 WTEWTE per 100,000 England53,170,900 6991.315991.13 Wales 3,074,067 511.66461.50 Scotland 5,313,600 931.75821.54 N Ireland 1,823,634 331.81281.54 UK633822018761.387551.19 2013 2014 CountryPopulationHeadcountHead count per 100,000 WTEWTE per 100,000 England53,865,800 7031.306031.12 Wales3,082400 511.65461.49 Scotland5,327000 931.74821.54 N Ireland1,81,9700 331.81281.54 UK64,105,7008801.377591.18

12. Mean programmed activities (PAs) contracted per week Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012 RCP Survey SpecialtyResponses TotalClinicalAcademicSupportingOther PAs Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus 38510.87.11.12.00.6 All specialties5,14310.67.50.72.00.4 Mean programmed activities (PAs) worked per week SpecialtyResponses TotalClinicalAcademicSupportingOther PAs Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus 37712.07.71.12.70.3 Summary5,07511.88.10.82.70.2

13. Specialist Training and Recruitement 2013-2014

14. NTN numbers (Total enrolled to date) Figures from JRCPTB Trainees are out of the Programme In full time research ?? Total Number in Training = 407

15. CCT numbers (Period 1 st Aug-31 st July) Figures from JRCPTB YearCCT Awarded 2008-0972 2009-1077 2010-1168 2011-12 N/A 2012-1349 2013-1468 YearCCT Predicted 2014-15 82 2015-1676 2016-17 42 2017-18 21 2018-1920

16. Survey Overview (1) The survey appears to continue to give a accurate ascertainment of numbers in post The total numbers of new appointments was lower from last year The number of post in acute medicine with D&E interest is stable over the last 2 years

17. Survey Overview (2) The numbers of expected new CCT holders in the coming years is higher than current vacancies Retirement vacancies do not look likely to vary much in the coming years The rate of creation of new posts will continue to determine the overall balance, but has been the lowest ever for 2013-2014 (Total 4)

18. Highlights Consultant Posts Rate of expansion- i.e new posts is all time low Retirement posts are being replaced and number of people retiring each year is stable The number of CCT awarded annually exceeds the number of available posts. Mismatch between CCT holders and Available posts? Specialist Registrar The Ratio of existing Consultant posts/NTNs is 1.9 Recruitment: Unfilled NTNs (3 rd behind Elderly and AIM) and Geographic Variation

19. Succession Planning - Dr Stella George has been appointed to lead the survey for next 5 years (starting 2015-16) Next Survey (2014-15), will be done jointly with Handover and Mentoring period Changes for 2014-15 survey? – Emphasis on Job Plan and workload – More accurate data on GIM/Diabetes/Endo split – Academic Contribution by consultants and accurate ascertainment of Academic posts – Primary care work

20. Future Hospital: Caring for medical patients

21. Aim of the Future Hospital Commission Identify new way of delivering hospital services: Come to patient Coordinated around patients’ needs (including for multiple conditions) Organised over seven days Reach beyond hospital walls Value patient experience as much as clinical outcome Deliver clear lines of responsibility for patient care

22. Realising the Future Hospital RCP Future Hospital Programme (2014-2017) improve care for patients develop and implement vision - medical care in hospital and community drive real change - recommendation to reality work in partnership with: - patients -individual hospitals and teams -partners across health and social care (FH strategic advisory group) -national stakeholders

23. Realising the Future Hospital Consult Future Hospital partner sites -develop model -understand implications -identify barriers and changes -promote and mentor Promote good practice - Future Hospital Journal Influence - identify levers in new structures Embed in existing RCP work

24. FHC partnership Programme (RCP) Sites Four Chosen out of 20 Application 3 focus on Elderly care 1 on emergency Floor re-organisation First meeting 15 th October Other Sites – Wales (Betsy Cowadalon) – East Lanacashire – Wessex region

25. Elderly Assessment Unit Care Closer to Home Improved Social Services Links More effective use of Intermediate Care/ Community Geriatricians Secondary care advice for primary care Increased usage of existing community services – e.g. iv therapy Improved Care Home Liaison/ Liaison with Community Matrons Vision = Integrated Patient Centred Care for Older People (MYT)

26. Project Time lines Start date: Likely to be late 2014/Early 2015 Total Duration 12-18 Months Initial Planning and start 0-3 month Implementation and delivery 3-12 month Evaluation 12-15 month Write up and dissemination 15-18 month With interim evaluation and project progress assessment as per governance structure

27. First FHC RCP National Meeting (Harrogate) March 2015 Attended by 600 delegates including Trainees Key Speakers from Politicians/Public and experts A huge Success Next Year date. – 15-16 March 2016 – Harrogate

28. Final report will be available after end April 2015 DUK Website: http://www.diabetes.org.uk/Professionals ABCD Website: http://www.diabetologists-abcd.org.uk/mainmenu.html SfE Website http://www.endocrinology.org/clinical/