1. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

2. SEMCOG 2040 Regional Forecast SEMCOG 2040 Regional Forecast SEMCOG General Assembly March 22, 2012

3. Michigan Is Leading the Recovery Employment Change, 3 rd Quarters, 2009-2011 Data Source: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, UM. Wage and salary employment only. Total Employment High-wage Industries (Average > 57,000 in 2010$) Employment Percent Change

4. Employment and Population Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast Employment Population 2,786,082 4,742,083 2010 2040 1990

5. Change of Population Components Annual Average, Southeast Michigan 2010-2020 2020-20402000-2010 = + - 1990-2000 = + - = + - = + -

6. Michigan Has Less In-Migration 2010 Michigan Has Less In-Migration 2010 Domestic Migration Rates U.S. Inter-State Migration Rates Into Michigan Source: State Demographer's Analysis of 2010 ACS Data Out Migration from Michigan Age

7. A More Diverse Region Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 Hispanic WhiteBlack Asian, Multi-racial, AIAN, and Other Source: Census 2010, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast 20102040

8. Significant Aging Population Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast Increase Decrease

9. Knowledge-based, export-oriented services We Must Grow Jobs in Knowledge-Based and Export-Oriented Industries Jobs by Major Sector, SE Michigan, 1990-2040 Manufacturing Government Retail Health/Social services Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast 2010 2040 1990

10. Total Employment, Baseline, Higher and Lower Alternatives Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast 2,675,296 2,786,082 2,940,935 2010 2,484,251 2000 2,835,170 1990 2,478,460 2010 2040 1990

11. Regional Forecast Summary The region is recovering from a decade- long deep recession.The region is recovering from a decade- long deep recession. The recovery will be longer and slower than in the past.The recovery will be longer and slower than in the past. Growth will be modest, from 2010 to 2040:Growth will be modest, from 2010 to 2040: –Employment up 12% (302,000) –Population up 1% (37,000) –Households up 6% (110,000)

12. Regional Forecast Summary Cont’d An aging population and lack of in- migration willAn aging population and lack of in- migration will –limit labor force in the long run, and –reconfigure services Diversifying economy should continue byDiversifying economy should continue by –developing knowledge-based and export-oriented industries –maintaining a strong presence in our key auto industry

13. SEMCOG 2040 Community Forecast

14. More than 3,000 loss Loss, 501 to 3,000 Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain Gain, 501 to 3,000 More than 3,000 gain Source: Census, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast 2000-2010 2010-2020 Short-term Population Change Change in Population, 2000-2020

15. More than 3,000 loss Loss, 501 to 3,000 Little change, 500 loss to 500 gain Gain, 501 to 3,000 More than 3,000 gain Long-term Population Change Change in Population, 2010-2040 Source: Census, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

16. Less than 10% 10% to 14.9% 15% to 19.9% 20% to 24.9% 25% to 29.9% 30% or more 2010 2040 Senior Population Change Percent of Population Age 65+, 2010 and 2040

17. Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast Continued Household Growth Change in Households, 2010-2040 More than 100 Loss Little Change, -100 to 300 Gain, 301 to 1,000 Large Gain, 1,000 to 3,000 More than 3,000 Gain

18. More than 100 loss Little Change, -100 to 100 Gain, 100 to 1,000 Large Gain, 1,000 to 3,000 More than 3,000 gain Confidential Job Gains Most Everywhere Change in Employment, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

19. More than 50 loss Little Change, -50 to 50 Gain, 51 to 500 Large Gain, 501 to 3,000 More than 3,000 gain Confidential Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast Gain in Knowledge-Based Services Jobs Change in Sector Employment, 2010-2040

20. Little Change -10 to 50 Small Gain, 51 to 500 Moderate Gain, 501 to 2,000 Large Gain, 2,001 to 4,000 More than 4,000 gain Confidential Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast Gain in Private Education & Health Care Change in Sector Employment, 2010-2040

21. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments