1. V. Ryabinin Polar Thorpex Workshop, Oslo, 6-8 October 2010 Polar Research within the World Climate Research Programme (Vladimir Ryabinin, Joint Planning Staff for WCRP) Objectives: ♦ To determine the predictability of climate ♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate

2. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 22 April 1866 Courtesy IABP 1553-1977 Launch of ICESat Arctic Climate System Study 1994–2003

3. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 WGNE WGCM WGSIP WOAP TFRCD Seasonal Decadal ACC AC&C Monsoons Extremes SLR IPY Regional JSC JPS (CAS/WCRP) with WGOMD

4. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Current climate prediction experiments Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX (Courtesy TFRCD) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment 5 – CMIP5 (Courtesy WGCM)

5. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Stratosphere and Polar Climate Effects of stratospheric ozone hole and expected ozone layer recovery (CCMVal + WMO/UNEP Assessment 2010, also for AR5) Sudden stratospheric warmings and coolings Predictability of the polar vortex, DYNVAR, gravity wave initiative Polar Observations (e.g. Vorcore) Polar Data (e.g. SPARC-IPY)

6. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 CEOP/CliC Cold Regions Study

7. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Interactions between the Ocean, Atmosphere, Sea Ice and Snow-pack in Polar regions Determine the importance of OASIS chemical, physical and biological exchange processes on tropospheric chemistry, the cryosphere, and the marine environment, and their feedback mechanisms in the context of a changing climate. AICI: Air Ice Chemical Interactions (IGAC, SOLAS, CliC)

8. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 CliC SSG-6, Valdivia, Chile, 6- 9.02. 2010 Ice sheets and SLR Marine Cryosphere Terrestrial Cryosphere Global Prediction of Cryosphere Cryospheric inputs to the Arctic and Southern Ocean Freshwater Budgets Ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics and impacts on SLR Regional Climate Modelling Initiatives that integrate CliC themes Carbon and Permafrost Changes and feedbacks in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice ☼ Lead theme ☼ ☼ ☼ ☼ ☼

9. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Major CliC Initiatives Koni Steffen

10. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Observed Rate of Loss Faster Than GCM Predicted Stroeve et al., 2007 Bitz., in press

11. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 SEARCH Sea-Ice Outlook 19 Sep, NSIDC 12 Sep, NSIDC CliC Sea-Ice Activities WCRP White Paper “Rapid Loss Sea-Ice in the Arctic” - ARctic HIndcast, Modelling and PrEdiction StuDiES (ARCHIMEDES) - CMIP5 Diagnostic Proejct - Sea-Ice Algorithms Intercomparison – workshop soon CliC – IARC Workshop on Arctic Ice Loss (Fairbanks, USA, 6-8 October 2010) Arctic Sea-Ice Working Group Antarctic Sea-Ice Processes and Climate (ASPeCt) (with SCAR) Southern Ocean Physical Oceanography and Cryosphere Linkages (SOPHOCLES)

12. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Major CliC Initiatives Total C Mass in the Atmosphere ~ 800 Gt Carbon and Permafrost = CAPER (C. Le Queré et al., 2009) (C. Tarnocai et al., 2008)

13. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 3950 582 713 1075 2986 1670 ? scaled from Carmack rapid retreat of glaciers: Alaska ~1/2 of global loss Eurasian discharge increased at ~2 km3/yr, 1936-99 Arctic precipitation +8% over last 100 yr 1979 2002 melt area on Greenland ice sheet increased ~16%, 1979-2002 CHANGES IN THE FRESHWATER BUDGET COMPONENTS e.g., from ACIA: Walsh et al., 2005

14. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Arctic System Reanalysis  Regional Reanalysis of the Arctic Atmosphere/Ocean/Land System  High Resolution in Time (3 hours) and Space (15 km, 71 levels) – will consider 10 km resolution Time – 2000 to 2010 Satellite Radiance Assimilation Supported by NSF as an IPY Project Courtesy: Dave Bromwich

15. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 SWIPA Chapters under national review Predictions using WCRP CMIP3

16. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008

17. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 The Report Preface Foreword Executive Summary 1. The Cryosphere Theme 2. Applications of Cryospheric Data 3. Terrestrial Snow 4. Sea Ice 5. Lake and River Ice 6. Ice Sheets 7. Glaciers and Ice Caps 8. Surface Temperature and Albedo 9. Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground 10. Solid Precipitation 11. An Integrated and Coordinated Observing System 12. Implementation App. A. References App. B. Observational Capabilities and Requirements App. C. Satellite Missions in Support of the Theme App. D. Acronyms App. E. Contributors Contributions from ~80 people in 17 countries throughout the development phase. http://igos-cryosphere.org

18. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Climate at forefront thru > 20 WCRP-Affiliated Projects International Polar Year

19. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Main observing initiatives contributing to the creation of an IPY Legacy: Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON), Integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System (iAOOS), and Arctic-HYCOS as parts of SAON, Pan-Antarctic Observing System (PAntOS), Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) as part of PAntOS, The WMO Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW), Polar Satellite Constellation (PSC), Polar Regional Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF)

20. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Scoping document accepted by WMO Executive Council in June 2009. The Council requested the preparation of a GCW implementation strategy for consideration by the WMO Congress in 2011. Global Cryosphere Watch-a WMO Initiative A legacy of WCRP/CliC in the area of observations A contribution to GCOS & GEOSS

21. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Principal Goal: To assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system. WCRP’s Climate and Cryosphere Project Co-sponsored by SCAR and IASC Enabling prediction of the Arctic climate system; Enabling prediction of the Antarctic climate system; Enabling prediction of terrestrial cryosphere; and Enabling improved assessment of the past, current and future sea-level variability and change. New

22. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Topics : Atmospheric effects of sea-ice changes and vice versa Ice sheets and ice shelves effects on ocean circulation, other cryospheric effects Major processes in and predictability of the polar oceans Land surface effects such as ones of snow cover, soil moisture, etc. Northern river run-off effects and freshwater balance Sudden stratospheric warmings Effects of atmospheric constituents, e.g. O3, GHG, aerosols, BC, CH4 Volcanic effects Solar cycle effects QBO effects ENSO effects and teleconnections with lower latitudes Large-scale modes of climate variability (AMO, PDO, AO/NAO, SAM) and long- living anomalies in the ocean heat content and its transport Dynamic effects – planetary and gravity waves, polar night jet, etc. Then: Road Map to Arctic Climate Prediction Gap analysis: Pacific, Southern Ocean, surface fluxes? Technological and programmatic solutions; e.g. implementing a seamless system, cooperation, e.g. with TAWEPI; experience, e.g. one of NCEP “Seasonal to Multi-decadal Predictability of Polar Climate” Dates: 25-29 October 2010 Venue: Bergen Workshop

23. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Ocean ReAnalyses & OSs Arctic Ocean

24. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Rapid change is affecting traditional way of life, health and safety; threatens land- based, freshwater and marine species CLIPS in Polar Regions There is a need for consistent, useful, operational climate information, products and services for high latitudes: Industry including land and marine transportation, mining, oil and gas exploration and energy production must consider climate variability and change in planning and operations

25. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 International Polar Decade (?) Developments in studies of real predictability (ocean reanalysis), observations of polar regions, polar and cryospheric reanalyses, modelling and data assimilation, and etc., could be integrated in an IPD and result in significant progress in polar climate prediction at a variety of scales.

26. IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 IPY 2007 2008 Cooperation