1. Ch. 12 Urbanization and Population

2. Population by the Numbers  About 2,000 years ago the world’s population was around 300 million  Little changed until the Industrial Revolution  At the onset of the Industrial Revolution population began to grow  1800 - first billion  1930 - second billion  1962 - 3 billion  1974 - 4 billion  1987 - 5 billion  1999 - 6 billion  2009 - 6.8 billion  2011 – 7 billion

3. World Population, 1700–2050

4. Causes of Population Increase  Demography - study of size, composition, growth, and distribution of human population  Fertility - incidence of childbearing in a country’s population  One measure of a society’s fertility is the crude birth rate - number of live births in a given year for every thousand people in a population

5. Demography: Explaining Population Increase  The crude birth rate is seen as a crude indicator of the birth rate because it includes in the calculation the entire population not just women that give birth  Higher the fertility = the faster the growth

6. Demography: Explaining Population Increase  One measure of death is the crude death rate, number of deaths in a given year for every thousand people in a population  Everything being equal: the lower the mortality, the higher the growth  In sum, we are seeing in some parts of the world high fertility with falling mortality

7. Three Population Statistics for World Regions

8. Demography: Explaining Population Increase  Infant mortality as a measure of a society’s quality of life  Infant mortality rate - number of deaths among children under one year of age for each thousand live births  World’s infant mortality rate is 49  U.S. infant mortality rate is 6.6  Low-income countries vary from a high of 163 to a low of 29

9. The Low-Growth North  North America and Western Europe  Zero population growth-level of reproduction that maintains population at a steady state  High cost of raising children  Contraceptives  Delayed marriage  Both partners in labor force  High income countries losing population

10. The High-Growth South  Population growth is a major problem for poor nations High birth rates and declining death rates Account for 80% of the planet’s people Culture and the status of women

11. Explaining Population Growth  The pessimists: the New Malthusians Exponential growth curve  The optimists: the Anti-Malthusians Demographic transition Population shrinkage

12. Explaining Population Increase: Malthusian Theory  Robert Malthus (1798-1834) – English economist, clergyman and pioneer demographer  Populations grow in a geometric pattern  Food supplies grow in an arithmetic pattern  Population growth would exceed the available supply of food, the result being starvation and war

13. A More Recent Approach: Demographic Transition Theory  Thesis linking demographic change to a society’s level of technological development  Population is affected by four levels of technological development

14. A More Recent Approach: Demographic Transition Theory  Stage 1 – Pre-industrial society is associated with high birth rates and high death rates, very little or no growth  Stage 2 – Early industrial society is associated with the onset of demographic transition, high births and declining deaths  Stage 3 – Mature industrial society is associated with decline in births and deaths and a slow down in growth  Stage 4 – Postindustrial society is associated with low births and deaths with little or no growth

16. Sitting on the shoulders of the New Malthusians  Land taken through urban sprawl represents less food production, further sealing the fate of the world’s malnourished Sitting on the shoulders of the Anti- Malthusians  We are in no danger of running out of farmland Despite the billions of people who have been added to the earth’s population, more food is available per person now than in the past. The Scope of the Problem

19. Symbolic interactionism  Why do the poor have so many children?  Taking the role of the other Seeing things from another person’s perspective –In Least Industrialized Nations, people’s identities center on their children. –Most live in small communities with shared identity and culture. –Children are economic assets Looking at the Problem Theoretically

20.  Functionalism Catastrophes are functional Modern medicine and public health: latent dysfunctions Population pyramids Doubling times Latent dysfunctions: unintended consequences

21.  Conflict theory Focus on the global distribution of power and resources Power and profits Food politics: controlling food production to control food prices

22.  Problems in forecasting population growth  Demographers’ predictions Changes in the U.S. Birthrate Immigrants offset low birthrates Do immigrants pay their way?  The Anti-Malthusians Country will have enough space, industry, and food to meet needs  The New Malthusians U.S. does have a population problem  The Anti-Malthusians Americans do contribute to the Earth  Objective conditions versus viewpoints Clashing views of Malthusians highlight relevance of symbolic interactionism Does the United States Have a Population Problem?

23. The New Malthusian viewpoint  The pessimistic view: exhausting the world’s resources is inevitable High food prices More famines Riots, revolutions, and repression The Anti-Malthusian viewpoint  The optimistic view: the future is what we make it Technology and abundance –Biotech society –Designer animals The fourth stage of the demographic transition: the coming population shrinkage Unbalanced stages and global upheaval Pronatalist policies: unlikely social policies can have more than a short-term effect on a country’s fertility The role of immigrants Which will it be? Appears that the world has potential to meet nutritional needs, but requires that Most Industrialized Nations cooperate to meet the challenge Perhaps they will rise to the occasion The Future of the Problem