1. POPULATION AND REPRODUCTION  Robert McNamara, former President of the World Bank: “Short of thermonuclear war itself, population growth is the gravest issue the world faces over the decades ahead.”

2. THE POPULATION ISSUE  How its studied:  Demography = the analysis of population changes and characteristics.  Population = births (levels of fertility) - deaths (mortality rates) + in-migration - out-migration

3. THE NUMBERS GAME  Historical and Contemporary Trends in Population Growth  1 billion in 1804  2 billion in 1927 (123 years later)  3 billion in 1960 (33 years later)  4 billion in 1974 (14 years later)  5 billion in 1987 (13 years later)  6 billion in 1999 (12 years later)  9 billion in 2050 (US Census Bureau est.)

4. PERSPECTIVES ON THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION CHANGE  Thomas Malthus: Essay on the Principle of Population  The Core Principles Food is necessary for human existence. Human population tends to grow faster than food production

5. Humans tend not to limit their population size voluntarily (Malthus: "preventive checks") Population reduction through "positive" checks of famine, disease, poverty and war.  http://www.igc.org/desip/malthus/principles. html http://www.igc.org/desip/malthus/principles. html

6. Paul Ehrlich -- The Population Bomb (1968)  Neo-Malthusian: Overpopulation > environmental degradation  warns of the dangers of energy consumption, urban sprawl, air and water pollution, and disappearing farmland as developing countries race to achieve their economic aspirations

7. International Efforts to Reduce Population Growth  1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest: how to slow population growth in developing world?  1984 International Population Conference in Mexico City: Pressure from Religious orgs.  1994 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo: demographic transition and empowering women

8. The Good News:  Global fertility has fallen from 5 births per woman in the 1950s to 2.7 births per woman. The net increase in decline since 1989, when annual growth topped out at more than 86 million.  American Demographics, June 1999

9. The Bad News:  Population Momentum: One billion teenagers are just entering their reproductive years - The largest "youthquake" ever. The world is growing by more than 76 million people a year (1.33% annually). Doubling in 50 years http://www.overpopulation.org/faq.html

10. ‘Third World’ and global population trends Contemporary population trend 90% of the world's births occurred in LDCs in 1998. 96-99% of global natural increase -- the difference between numbers of births and deaths -- occurs in the developing world

11. Jean-Marie Le Pen (Leader, National Front and French Presidential candidate, 2002)  The Economist, November 16, 2002 “The greatest challenge is demographic. The countries of the north – the world of the white man, or let’s say the non-black world – have an ageing population. They are rich, and they are facing a third world of 5 billion people, maybe more tomorrow, who are very young and dynamic. This dynamism will be translated into immigration.”

12. Explaining ‘Third World’ population trend  1) High rates of fertility Why?  Lower rates of literacy  Earlier marriage  fewer opportunities for women  lower life expectancy

13. Life expectancies at birth, 1998 (in years) Western Europe 78 North America 76 Latin America and the Caribbean 69 Asia 65 Sub-Saharan Africa 49

14. Explaining ‘Third World’ population trend  2) Failed modernization = failed demographic transition

16. Third World population trend: Seeking solutions  Empowering Third World women = low population growth  Policy initiatives: family planning programs Increased Use of Female Contraception, Sterilization and Abortion Spread in Use of Condoms Recent changes with focus on male practices

17. The politics of empowerment Solutions largely top-down, high-tech, many aimed at controlling female fertility, mainly aimed at LDCs Third Women critical of the neo-imperialist tendencies of the global reproduction rights movement

18. Global reproduction rights movement: North-South Divide  Views from the Global South international forums e.g, UN’s International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, emphasis on sexual issues reflecting the experience of women in the core Narrow definition of women’s reproduction rights (need to be situated within broader social, economic and political context)

19. Rapid industrialization  Rapid industrialization=demographic transition  Often cited example: South Korea Holds the distinction of having undergone the demographic transition due to rapid industrialization process

20. South Korea  South Korea’s demographic transition (the fastest demographic transition in history)  Some numbers: 1960 birth rate 41 1980 birth rate 20

21. Sources of S. Korea’s successful demographic transition  Historical development nature of Japanese colonialism (establishment of an industrial base, land reforms) Expanded land reforms (during the American military rule in the late 1940s) Educational reforms: Mass access to formal schooling (1945- 64% children attended primary school; 1960- 95.3%

22.  Post-1960 rapid industrialization (support from the post-1945 international liberal order due to east-west tensions  the nature of the S. Korean state (development state)

23.  Colonial restructuring of class structure, industrialization, and education reforms =fertility decline in all regions and across classes in South Korea.  Critical issues: paying attention to historical realities

24. Third World population growth and Globalization III  Empowering women: Globalization III  What are the prospects? Reduced social spending implications for women (economic, health, education)

25.  Rapid industrialization limited prospects  emphasis on increasing exports  industrialization trend (with the exception of China) -off shore production sites with no linkage to local industrialization processes

26. Beyond neo-liberalism:  Is Third World industrialization possible given the current environmental crisis?

27. World Pop-clock  http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclo ck.html http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclo ck.html