1. Corn Industry Trends Tom Lilja tom@ndcorn.org December 18, 2013

2. Ag Revolutions Mechanical – 1794 Cotton Gin Chemical – Post World War II Financial – 1980’s collapse Biotechnology – mid 1990’s Protein Revolution today?? Or Logistical?? Fundamental Demand Changes Occurring

3. 3 World Population Millions

4. 4 Chinese Domestic Corn Feed Demand MMT

5. 5 Per Capita GDP Rates in SE Asia ChinaIndia

6. 6 Delta in World Meat Demand

7. Doubting Thomas Malthusian Theory – population is inclined to increase more rapidly than the supply of food that such growth necessitates Can we disprove Malthus?

8. Yield Enhancement Drought Tolerance

9. More Corn Per Acre

10. North Dakota Yield Variability 28% 1975-1995

11. North Dakota Yield Stability 15% 1997-2010

12. What Helped Stabilize Yield? Corn Borer trait (Bt) introduction 1997 Southeast North Dakota NK 3030 115 bushels / acre NK 3030BT 141 bushels / acre Roundup Ready technology in corn and soybeans has not stunted plant growth as with traditional chemicals Corn Rootworm Traits Stacking of Traits

13. Supply Side Economics ?? 90 bushels / acre – mid 1990’s 115 bushels / acre – 2012 25 extra bushels across 3.5 million acres Or Bonanza?? 87.5 million more bushels x $6.67 USDA $584 million more to ND economy $2.47 Billion (2004-2008) CAPTS, NDSU $9.7 Billion (2008-2012) CAPTS, NDSU

14. Land Use Amount of land to produce one bushel of corn Soil Loss Soil loss per bushel, above a tolerable level Irrigation Irrigation water use per bushel Energy Energy used to produce one bushel Climate Emissions per bushel Corn’s Impacts, 1987-2007 37% 69% 27% 37% 30%

15. Pesticide Use Trends Increasing adoption of hybrids with insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant traits have greatly reduced the need for synthetic applications of herbicides and insecticides. Insecticide Pounds Per AcreHerbicide Pounds Per Acre Source: USDA 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1990199219941996199820002002 2005 1990 1995 2000 2005

16. Actual Corn Growers Become More Efficient With Nitrogen COMMERCIAL NITROGEN APPLIED PER BUSHEL OF CORN PRODUCED 1980 - 2006 ACTUAL & TREND TO 2030 Pounds per Bushel 1.80 1.60 Trend 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20202015 2025 2030 Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates, Inc. Source: Blue, Johnson & Assoc. Inc.

17. Enjoy the Value Added Summit Contact Info Tom Lilja – tom@ndcorn.orgtom@ndcorn.org Greg LaPlante – greg@ndcorn.orggreg@ndcorn.org