1. Research Methods Unit II

2. Chapter 2 - Fact or Falsehood 1.Human intuition is remarkably accurate and free from error. False False 2.Most people seem to lack confidence in the accuracy of their beliefs. False False 3.Most people suffer from unrealistically low self-esteem. False False 4.The opinions of 1500 randomly selected people can provide a very accurate picture of the opinions of an entire nation. True True 5.Research suggests that students spend more than 28% of their waking hours in conversation. True True

3. 6.The scientific finding that depressed people tend to have low self-esteem proves that depression causes people to be down on themselves. False False 7.The purpose of the experiment is to re-create behaviors exactly as they occur in everyday life. False False 8.Males and females exhibit similar overall intelligence and well-being. True True 9.Under ethical and legal guidelines, animals used in experiments rarely experience pain. True True 10.As a science, psychology is objective and value-free. False False

4. Let’s Make a Deal! Correct Answer Participants Choice Stay/SwitchWin/Lose ABSWITCHWIN Calculate the percentage of wins from switching. Calculate the percentage of wins from staying.

5. Hindsight bias Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it The “I knew it all along” phenomenon The “I knew it all along” phenomenon EX: After the Packers won on Sunday, people thought, “I knew all along they’d win.” EX: After the Packers won on Sunday, people thought, “I knew all along they’d win.”

6. How long would it take you to figure out these word scrambles? How long would it take you to figure out these word scrambles? wreat water wreat water etrynentry etrynentry grabebarge grabebarge Unscramble this word: Unscramble this word: ochsa ochsa

7. Overconfidence Tendency to think we know more than we do Tendency to think we know more than we do EX: thinking you did better on a quiz than you actually did EX: thinking you did better on a quiz than you actually did

8. Examples of Overconfidence “There is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their home.”~Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977 “There is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their home.”~Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977 “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” ~Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, 1895 “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” ~Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, 1895 “Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.”~Lee Deforest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957 “Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances.”~Lee Deforest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957 “Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.”~Alex Lewyt, manufacturer of vacuum cleaners, 1955 “Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.”~Alex Lewyt, manufacturer of vacuum cleaners, 1955

9. Assignment Answer the following questions in complete sentences. You will be adding more to this later. Answer the following questions in complete sentences. You will be adding more to this later. 1.Give an example of hindsight bias from your own life. 2.Give an example of overconfidence from your own life.

10. Astrology E = Aries (March 21 – April 19) E = Aries (March 21 – April 19) B = Taurus (April 20 – May 20) B = Taurus (April 20 – May 20) C = Gemini (May 21 – June 21) C = Gemini (May 21 – June 21) A = Cancer (June 22 – July 22) A = Cancer (June 22 – July 22) F = Leo (July 23 – Aug 22) F = Leo (July 23 – Aug 22) D = Virgo (Aug 23 – Sept 22) D = Virgo (Aug 23 – Sept 22) K = Libra (Sept 23 – Oct 22) H = Scorpio (Oct 23 – Nov 21) I = Sagittarius (Nov 22 – Dec 21) L = Capricorn (Dec 22 – Jan 19) J = Aquarius (Jan 20 – Feb 18) G = Pisces (Feb 19 – March 20)

11. Testing hypotheses with descriptive methods Case study - studies one person in depth in hopes of revealing universal principles Case study - studies one person in depth in hopes of revealing universal principles EX: studying a patient with a specific mental disorder EX: studying a patient with a specific mental disorder Survey - uses a representative sample of people to estimate attitudes or reported behaviors of a whole population Survey - uses a representative sample of people to estimate attitudes or reported behaviors of a whole population Population - all the cases in a group being studied from which samples may be drawn Population - all the cases in a group being studied from which samples may be drawn Random sample - every member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion Random sample - every member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion

13. Examples of Poorly Worded Questions “Does Michigan spend too much, too little or the right amount on prisons and corrections?” “Does Michigan spend too much, too little or the right amount on prisons and corrections?” 38.4% said too much; 35.4% said not enough 38.4% said too much; 35.4% said not enough When asked whether spending $1.3 billion on prisons and corrections was too much, too little or the right amount, 54.9% said too much, 14% said not enough When asked whether spending $1.3 billion on prisons and corrections was too much, too little or the right amount, 54.9% said too much, 14% said not enough American Museum of Natural History survey found: American Museum of Natural History survey found: 77% of people were interested in plants and trees but only 39% were interested in botany 77% of people were interested in plants and trees but only 39% were interested in botany 48% were interested in fossils but only 39% were interested in paleontology 48% were interested in fossils but only 39% were interested in paleontology 42% were interested in rocks and minerals, but 53%were interested in geology 42% were interested in rocks and minerals, but 53%were interested in geology

14. “The problems faced by Blacks were brought on by Blacks themselves.” “The problems faced by Blacks were brought on by Blacks themselves.” When interviewed by Whites, 62% of White respondents agreed When interviewed by Whites, 62% of White respondents agreed When interviewed by Blacks, 46% agreed When interviewed by Blacks, 46% agreed When a New York Times/CBS News poll asked people if the favored an amendment “prohibiting abortions”, a majority opposed it When a New York Times/CBS News poll asked people if the favored an amendment “prohibiting abortions”, a majority opposed it When asked whether they favored “protecting the life of the unborn child,” 20% switched sides When asked whether they favored “protecting the life of the unborn child,” 20% switched sides

15. The worst poll question of all time (1937 British Gallup Poll question): The worst poll question of all time (1937 British Gallup Poll question): “Are you in favor of direct retaliatory measures against Franco’s piracy?” “Are you in favor of direct retaliatory measures against Franco’s piracy?” Problems: Problems: It is not balanced. It is not balanced. It assumes knowledge. It assumes knowledge. It does not use every day language. It does not use every day language. It employs a pejorative (a word/phrase that has negative connotation). It employs a pejorative (a word/phrase that has negative connotation). It is vague. It is vague.

16. Naturalistic observation - observing and recording behavior in a natural environment Naturalistic observation - observing and recording behavior in a natural environment Studying gorillas in the wild Studying gorillas in the wild

17. Assignment –cont- 3.Give an example of a study when researchers might use a case study. 4.Give an example of an experiment when researchers might use a survey. How could they ensure a random sampling of the population? Why is a random sampling important?

18. Correlation Measures how closely two things vary together and thus how well either one predicts the other Measures how closely two things vary together and thus how well either one predicts the other Graphed on a scatterplot and measured with a correlation coefficient Graphed on a scatterplot and measured with a correlation coefficient Positive = two sets of scores rise or fall together Positive = two sets of scores rise or fall together Negative = two sets of scores relate inversely Negative = two sets of scores relate inversely zero = weak correlation zero = weak correlation CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION EX: Self-esteem and depression are negatively correlated. Which is causation? Is a third factor (heredity, age) to blame? EX: Self-esteem and depression are negatively correlated. Which is causation? Is a third factor (heredity, age) to blame?

20. Correlation examples - which are positive and which are negative? The more your children watch TV, the less they read. The more your children watch TV, the less they read. Negative correlation Negative correlation The more sexual content teens see on TV, the more likely they are to have sex. The more sexual content teens see on TV, the more likely they are to have sex. Positive correlation Positive correlation The longer children are breast-fed, the greater their later academic achievement. The longer children are breast-fed, the greater their later academic achievement. Positive correlation Positive correlation The more often adolescents eat breakfast, the lower their body mass. The more often adolescents eat breakfast, the lower their body mass. Negative correlation Negative correlation

21. Illusory correlation The perception of a relationship where none exists The perception of a relationship where none exists EX: It always rains after you wash your car. EX: It always rains after you wash your car.

22. Assignment –cont- 5.Give an example from your life of an illusory correlation. 6.What can you conclude from this statement: Eating saturated fat and the likelihood of contracting cancer are positively correlated.

23. BlueBrownGreenOrangeRedYellow Predicted % Observed Frequency 25%9%20%21%12%13% Actual 24%13%16%20%13%14%

24. Experimentation In psychology, a study where variables are manipulated to determine a casual outcome In psychology, a study where variables are manipulated to determine a casual outcome Random assignment - assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance Random assignment - assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance Double blind procedure - neither the research participants nor the research staff know whether participants have received the treatment or a placebo Double blind procedure - neither the research participants nor the research staff know whether participants have received the treatment or a placebo Placebo effect - experimental results caused by expectations alone Placebo effect - experimental results caused by expectations alone EX: A drug/treatment works simply because the participant believes it will EX: A drug/treatment works simply because the participant believes it will

25. Experimentation –cont- Experiment example: Determine whether breast fed babies are more intelligent than bottle fed babies Experiment example: Determine whether breast fed babies are more intelligent than bottle fed babies Experimental group - group exposed to treatment Experimental group - group exposed to treatment Babies who are breastfed Babies who are breastfed Control group - group not exposed to treatment Control group - group not exposed to treatment Babies who are bottle fed Babies who are bottle fed

26. Experimentation –cont- Independent variable (IV) - experimental factor that is manipulated Independent variable (IV) - experimental factor that is manipulated Breast fed or bottle fed Breast fed or bottle fed Confounding variable - factor other than the IV that might produce an effect in an experiment Confounding variable - factor other than the IV that might produce an effect in an experiment Environment, diet, wealth Environment, diet, wealth Dependent variable - outcome factor; variable that may change in response to manipulations of the IV Dependent variable - outcome factor; variable that may change in response to manipulations of the IV Intelligence Intelligence

27. Statistical significance - observed difference is likely not due to chance variation between the samples Statistical significance - observed difference is likely not due to chance variation between the samples

28. Practice Experiment: To test the effect of perceived ethnicity on the availability of a rental house, Adrian Carpusor and William Loges (2006) sent identically worded e-mail inquiries to 1115 Los Angeles-area landlords. The researchers varied the ethnic connotation of the sender’s name and tracked the percentage of positive replies. “Patrick McDougall,” “Said Al-Rahman,” and “Tyrell Jackson” received, respectively, 89%, 66% and 56% invitations. Experiment: To test the effect of perceived ethnicity on the availability of a rental house, Adrian Carpusor and William Loges (2006) sent identically worded e-mail inquiries to 1115 Los Angeles-area landlords. The researchers varied the ethnic connotation of the sender’s name and tracked the percentage of positive replies. “Patrick McDougall,” “Said Al-Rahman,” and “Tyrell Jackson” received, respectively, 89%, 66% and 56% invitations. What is the independent variable? What is the independent variable? Ethnicity related names Ethnicity related names What is the dependent variable? What is the dependent variable? Positive response rate Positive response rate

29. How could these proverbs be tested? It takes four hours to come down from your last cup of coffee. It takes four hours to come down from your last cup of coffee. Wearing dark clothes on the bottom and light clothes on the top is usually more visually appealing than the reverse. Wearing dark clothes on the bottom and light clothes on the top is usually more visually appealing than the reverse. As family income rises, the ratio of women’s shoes to men’s shoes increases accordingly. As family income rises, the ratio of women’s shoes to men’s shoes increases accordingly. Don’t change your first guess on a multiple choice test. Don’t change your first guess on a multiple choice test.

30. Assignment –cont- 7.Develop a hypothesis and an experiment to test the hypothesis. Indicate the experimental and control groups, and independent, dependent and confounding variables. 8.Why, when testing a new drug to control blood pressure, would we learn more about its effectiveness from giving it to half the participants in a group of 1,000 than to all 1,000 participants? 9.Someone participating in a study on the effects of alcohol on perception is told by the experimenter that he has been assigned to the high dose group. Why was this not a good idea?