1. AO Forum 9 th May 2013 Milton Hill House Hotel, Oxford ‘Future shock’ for AOs – the only constant – change!

2. “Future shock”: “The shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time, the dizzying disorientation brought on by The premature arrival of the future!” Alvin Tofler 1970

3. Aims for this session: Review the current AO environment Brief analysis of core issues Identifying key strengths/opportunities Some predictions! Discussion!

4. Our regulated environment: 176 recognised AOs 10 surrendered recognition in 2012 2 more AOs were in process of surrendering at end of 2012 Robust entry criteria 1 accepted in May 2012 2 more through the first phase of submission

5. Benefits of regulation: Quality assured products – confidence for learners & employers Regulated products meet high standards Listing of all qualifications on the register Enhanced standing of qualifications in potential overseas markets

6. ‘Where are we now?’- PEST/LEID Analysis: Political Economic Social Technology + Legal Environmental International Demographic

7. Politics!

8. Some current issues – impact: QUALIFICATIONS FOR 16-19 RICHARD REVIEW OF APPRENTICESHIPS HESELTINE REVIEW SKILLS FUNDING WHITEHEAD REVIEW

9. Qualifications for 16-19: New programmes from Sept 2013 Funding to follow learner English, Maths, ‘A’ level or ‘substantial’ VQ DfE currently consulting on which VQs will be performance tables (min 150 GLH) 3 types: ‘Academic’, ‘Applied General’ & ‘Occupational’ FAB responding

10. Richard Review of Apprenticeships: HMGs response now out – generally supportive Agreed that: Employers take a primary role Ensure all apprenticeships are rigorous & responsive to employers’ needs Consultation needed on how to turn vision to reality – respond by 22 May FAB draft now out – respond by 17 May

11. Heseltine Report – ‘No stone unturned’: HMG now accepted almost all recommendations LEPs best placed to decide funding priorities for skills Local needs must be paramount for FE Single Local Growth Fund – watch out for the next spending review announcements!

12. Skills Funding: Revised funding proposals – sometimes at short notice Withdrawal of funding for qualifications with low or zero enrolments Common AO interests represented by FAB/JCQ

13. UKCES Whitehead Review of Adult Qualifications in England: “For individuals the aim is that vocational qualifications will be valued as a passport into and through a career; and for employers, the aim is for vocational qualifications to be a recognised brand” Matthew Hancock, MP, Minister for Skills, BIS

14. Whitehead aims: Vision for adult qualifications? How to achieve it? Perceived issues:  Unused/underused qualifications  Links to Labour market  Development times & flexibility of design  Reducing public funding – increasing need for employers to invest directly

15. Whitehead process: April – Consultation and review of data May – Focus groups and on-line survey June – initial report to Minister August – final report published

16. Whitehead AO action: FAB is on the case – watch out for consultation events Important that individual AOs & professional bodies give their feedback Direct to UKCES to Tom.Martin@ukces.org.ukTom.Martin@ukces.org.uk Before the 31 May

17. ECONOMIC Avoiding the triple-dip – just! Services – led Austerity v infrastructure spend?

18. SOCIAL Employment, employment, employment!

19. TECHNOLOGY Vital business enabler ‘lifeblood’ of AO business Regulatory, RITS, ULN Highly significant investment High customer impact Key differentiator

20. ‘The next big thing?’ – MOOCs? ‘Massive On-line Open Courses’ Accessible any time Free Open content HE-led at present High initial volumes Low completion rates – so far Future impact ?

21. MOOCs development stages:

22. LEGAL: AOs operate in highly regulated market – high stakes game! Ofqual sees itself more like an ATC service not the AAIB! Ofqual’s four cornerstones:  Guidance  Sanctions  Monitoring  Entry to the regulated market

23. ENVIRONMENTAL Good business sense! Reduction in adverse foot-print Impact of technology Impact on customers

24. INTERNATIONAL: Opportunities! – e.g.:  Kazakhstan  India  China  Brazil  Worldwide English language tests –. min 2,400 tests pa in at least 40 countries

25. INTERNATIONAL: Key priorities:  Research, research, research!  Use existing supports/resources, eg: British Council/FAB  Within powers & scope?  Single entity?  Joint venture/partnership?  Realistic legal & accounting advice  Ability to manage long distance & long-term investment  CARE!

26. DEMOGRAPHIC Youth priorities Unrealistic expectations Quality of careers advice/LMI Ageing population profile 4 country dynamic

27. Dakota Sioux tribal wisdom: “When you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount”

28. Dealing with dead horses, more common approaches in the UK: Buy a bigger whip Change riders Form a committee to study the dead horse Arrange visits to other sites to see how they do it Spend more on training to improve our riding skills Harness several dead horses together for increased speed Provide additional funding to increase horse performance Hire contractors to ride the horse more cheaply Appoint a consultant! Revisit the performance requirements for dead horses Sell the dead horse to Tesco’s Promote the dead horse

29. Remember FAB! Annual Conference: 11 th & 12 th November 2013 Chesford Grange, near Warwick

30. Thanks for listening! John Mac mobile: 07879 477448 e-mail: jmcna16@aol.com