1. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE co-chairs

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Role of WGNE Working Group on Numerical Experimentation Jointly established by the WCRP and the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Responsibility of fostering the development of atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing and resolving shortcomings. A distillation of the Terms of Reference….. Advice, liaison Co-ordinated experiments Workshops, publications, meetings

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Co-ordinated experiments and projects

4. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose-AMIP GOOD PROGRESS Cloudy-radiance DONE Grey-zone / cold-air outbreak GOOD PROGRESS Verification NWP performance (eg TCs, precipitation) ONGOING Polar (CBS-style; ConcordIASI intercomparsion) NEW Climate metrics GOOD PROGRESS Issues with verification against own analysis NEW Importance of aerosols for weather and climate Discussion WGNE 2012 Quality of monsoon simulations for weather and climate Discussion WGNE 2012

5. Project sessions this week… Project sessions this week Stable boundary layers The diagnosis of cloud and radiation processes in models Weak temperature gradient Grey-zone project Microphysics modelling (KiD) LoCo/SGP Testbed (GLASS project) Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Feedbacks (CGILS) Land-Atmosphere Interactions (GLASS/GABLS joint project) Radiative Processes in Observations and Models Cirrus Tropical Convection observed during CINDY/DYNAMO Polar Clouds (ISDAC) Stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus transition Vertical structure and diabatic heating of the MJO

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Workshops and meetings

7. © Crown copyright Met Office WGNE-THORPEX PDP  Joint expert meeting on “Diagnosis of Forecast Errors” held in Zurich, July 2010  WGNE/PDP/ECMWF Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Models, ECMWF, June 2011  Brought together data assimilation, model physics and ensemble/stochastic physics communities  Stochastic parametrisation paradigm needs further development at the process level and to be incorporated as part of general parametrization development  WGNE/GASS efforts  http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/201106

8. © Crown copyright Met Office JPL workshop

9. © Crown copyright Met Office GOV/WGNE Ocean coupling workshop Washington, USA. 19th-22nd March 2013 Follow on to ECMWF (2008) and Met Office (2009) workshops Focus on coupled modelling for short and medium range Use of short-range coupled to understand issues for longer range (e.g. subseasonal-seasonal) https://www.godae-oceanview.org/outreach/meetings-workshops/coupled-prediction-workshop-gov-wgne /

10. © Crown copyright Met Office 4th WGNE Workshop on Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models Met Office, Exeter, UK. 15th- 19th April 2013 Weather and climate Nature and causes of errors Use of diagnostic techniques, observations, process models and simplified experiments to understand errors http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/conference/wgne2013

11. © Crown copyright Met Office Future directions Continue to look cross-timescale – weather and climate (and air quality/chemistry) communities together Need to keep championing the importance of model development Maintain strong links to many other groups and projects e.g. WWRP, DOAS, GASS, polar, subseasonal-seasonal, WGCM…… THORPEX follow-on activities need to complement rather than duplicate existing groups and activities, and be “management-light”

12. © Crown copyright Met Office Questions?

13. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose-AMIP

14. © Crown copyright Met Office Transpose-AMIP: testing climate models in NWP mode Core experiment is to run 64 hindcasts, each 5 days long, initialised from ECMWF YOTC analysis. Optional experiment to repeat the same set of hindcasts with NASA MERRA re-analysis or own analysis. The hindcasts spread through the annual and diurnal cycles and chosen to tie in with YOTC and coincide with some of the IOPs in: VOCALS (SE Pacific stratocumulus) AMY (Asian monsoon) T-PARC (mid-latitude Pacific) 9 centres committed to submit data MIROC5, HADGEM2, CNRM-CM5 now available to download Data being used (e.g. papers for AR5)

15. www.transpose-amip.info © Crown copyright Met Office Data now being used! Expect at least some papers to make AR5 deadline

16. © Crown copyright Met Office Verification against own analysis

17. green : wrt own analysis pink : wrt ECMWF Blue : wrt radiosondes Red : wrt MO analysis Purple : wrt ECMWF profiles at radiosonde locations Best scores wrt own analysis Similar results wrt ECMWF analysis globally or projected on radiosonde locations: discretisation by radiosonde network sufficient to capture main errors Worse scores wrt radiosondes: difference in scales and quality of analysis Convergence of scores after a few days, depending on the model Issues with verification against own analysis Being taken forward by small group led by Tom Hamill, Laurie Wilson, and Jean-Noel Thepaut

18. © Crown copyright Met Office Grey zone / cold-air outbreak case

19. © Crown copyright Met Office Grey zone Cold air outbreak case WGNE and GASS supported project Model intercomparison (9+ participating groups) GCM LAM Idealized LAM / CRM. How well do models represent convection and the evolution of the boundary layer in a cold air outbreak? Use of high resolution ‘truth’ to investigate parametrization issues for coarser resolution models

20. © Crown copyright Met Office

21. 31 st January 2010 Aircraft obs Radar obs

22. © Crown copyright Met Office CRM case based on ‘Lagrangian’ trajectory from 1.5km UM Expt defines CRM forcing

23. © Crown copyright Met Office CtrlMod BL Obs Mod BL Ctrl Change to inhibit cumulus convection (in favour of turbulent mixing) when layer above LCL sufficiently sheared

24. © Crown copyright Met Office Effect of mixing change on surface SW bias in climate model NEW-OLD OLD Error map New Error map

25. © Crown copyright Met Office Coupled NWP

26. © Crown copyright Met Office Time evolution of coupled model Sea surface temperature errors

27. © Crown copyright Met Office Monsoons

28. Diagnosing Asian Monsoon Errors MO “dry” monsoon and EC “wet” monsoons develop within a few forecast days EC model boundary layer over Arabian Sea implicated in monsoon problem Which process is at fault? Is it really a model problem? How well do we know the ‘truth’? Phase 1 -2012 Compare UKMO and ECMWF analyses and FC (July 2009) – Done Compare forecasts and analyses from other OP NWP centres – TIGGE archive. Phase 2 – MO & EC Lead – 2012-13 Compare physical tendencies from short-range forecasts. Compare analysis increments from DA systems. Phase 3 – Extend Phase 2 to other OP NWP centres.