2. 12 - 1 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FISCAL POLICY 12 C H A P T E R

3. 12 - 2 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show LEGISLATIVE MANDATES Employment Act of 1946 Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) Joint Economic Committee (JEC)

4. 12 - 3 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FISCAL POLICY AND THE AD-AS MODEL Two Options Discretionary Fiscal Policy Non-Discretionary Fiscal Policy Expansionary Fiscal Policy Increase Government Spending Tax Reductions Combinations of the Two

5. 12 - 4 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show Price level Real GDP (billions) EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY Full $20 billion increase in aggregate demand AD 2 AD 1 $5 billion initial increase in spending the multiplier at work... P1P1 $485 $505

6. 12 - 5 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show Price level Real GDP (billions) CONTRACTIONARY FISCAL POLICY the multiplier at work... P3P3 $515 Full $20 billion decrease in aggregate demand AD 4 AD 3 $5 billion initial decrease in spending P4P4

7. 12 - 6 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FINANCING OF DEFICITS AND DISPOSING OF SURPLUSES Borrowing vs. New Money Borrowing From The Public Money Creation Debt Retirement vs. Idle Surplus Debt Reduction Impounding Which Policy Option? G or T?

8. 12 - 7 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show BUILT-IN STABILITY Net tax revenues vary directly with GDP Transfer payments behave the opposite way as tax collections Automatic or Built-In Stabilizers Economic Importance

9. 12 - 8 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show BUILT-IN STABILITY GDP 1 GDP 2 GDP 3 Real Domestic Output, GDP Government Expenditures, G, and Tax Revenues, T Deficit Surplus T G

10. 12 - 9 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show BUILT-IN STABILITY Tax Progressivity Progressive Tax System Proportional Tax System Regressive Tax System The more progressive the tax system, the greater the economy’s built-in stability

11. 12 - 10 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show EVALUATING FISCAL POLICY Full-Employment Budget Cyclical Deficit Recent U.S. Deficits & Surpluses Year Actual Deficit or Surplus Full-Employment Deficit or Surplus 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -3.9% -4.5 -4.7 -3.9 -2.9 -2.2 -1.4 -0.3 +0.8 +1.4 +2.4 -2.1% -2.6 -3.0 -2.6 -2.0 -1.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.4 +0.3 +1.1

12. 12 - 11 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FULL-EMPLOYMENT DEFICITS GDP 2 GDP 1 Real Domestic Output, GDP Government Expenditures, G, and Tax Revenues, T (billions) G T1T1 Year 1Year 2 a b c $500 475 450 425 No Change in Fiscal Policy

13. 12 - 12 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FULL-EMPLOYMENT DEFICITS GDP 4 GDP 3 Real Domestic Output, GDP Government Expenditures, G, and Tax Revenues, T (billions) T2T2 G T1T1 Year 3Year 4 d e f $500 475 450 425 Discretionary Fiscal Policy Tax Decrease h g

14. 12 - 13 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 Denmark Canada Sweden United Kingdom United States Germany Italy France Czech Republic Hungary Japan GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE BUDGET DEFICITS OR SURPLUSES AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 1999 Source: Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation

15. 12 - 14 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show PROBLEMS, CRITICISMS, AND COMPLICATIONS Problems of Timing Recognition Lag Administrative Lag Operational Lag A Political Business Cycle? Offsetting State & Local Finance Crowding-Out Effect

16. 12 - 15 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FISCAL POLICY, AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND INFLATION Price level Real GDP (billions) AS AD 2 $495$515 P1P1 AD 1 Fiscal Policy: Pure & Simple

17. 12 - 16 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FISCAL POLICY, AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND INFLATION Price level Real GDP (billions) AS AD’ 2 $495$515 P1P1 AD 1 Fiscal Policy and the Crowding-Out Effect or the Net Export Effect $505 AD 2

18. 12 - 17 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FISCAL POLICY, AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND INFLATION Price level Real GDP (billions) AS AD 2 $495$515 P1P1 AD 1 Fiscal Policy And Inflation $505

19. 12 - 18 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show FISCAL POLICY IN THE OPEN ECONOMY Shocks Originating from Abroad Net Export Effect

20. 12 - 19 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show SUPPLY-SIDE FISCAL POLICY Emphasis on Expansionary Tax Cuts Impact upon... Saving and Investment Work Incentives Risk Taking

21. 12 - 20 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show SUPPLY-SIDE FISCAL POLICY 0 Price level Real domestic output, GDP AD 1 AD 2 AS 1 AS 2 P1P1 P2P2 P3P3 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3

22. 12 - 21 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show Forecasting the Future The Leading Indicators Average Workweek Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance New Orders for Consumer Goods Vendor Performance New Orders for Capital Goods Building Permits for Houses Stock Prices Money Supply Interest-Rate Spread Consumer Expectations

23. 12 - 22 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show Forecasting the Future The Leading Indicators Average Workweek Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance New Orders for Consumer Goods Vendor Performance New Orders for Capital Goods Building Permits for Houses Stock Prices Money Supply Interest-Rate Spread Consumer Expectations Chapter Conclusions

24. ENDBACK fiscal policy Employment Act of 1946 Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) expansionary fiscal policy budget deficit contractionary fiscal policy budget surplus built-in stabilizer progressive tax system proportional tax system regressive tax system full-employment budget cyclical deficit political business cycle crowding-out effect net export effect supply-side fiscal policy Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002

25. 12 - 24 Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Legislative Mandate Fiscal Policy and the AD-AS Model Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy Financing of Deficits and Disposing of Surpluses Built-In Stability Evaluating Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy in the Open Economy Supply-Side Fiscal Policy Forecasting the Future Key Terms Previous Slide Next Slide End Show Chapter 13 Money and Banking Next...