1. An Application of Text Mining in Strategic Technical Planning Paul Frey – Search Technology, Inc. Nils Newman – Intelligent Information Services Corp. Robert Watts – U.S. Army TACOM Alan Porter – Georgia Institute of Technology Symposium on Technical Intelligence Division of Chemical Information American Chemical Society National Meeting San Diego California, April 4, 2001

2. Preliminary Comments A word of caution … –I am one of those people that previous speakers warned you about, because … –I make and sell “hammers.” –a.k.a. software tools to assist (not replace!) a skilled Technical Intelligence analyst Work reported occurred in late 1996 –Using an earlier prototype of VantagePoint –Screen-shots in this presentation are re-creations –But the story is true

3. Statement of the Problem Domain: U.S. Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command (TACOM) Replacement of high-cost, out-of-tolerance engine components is expensive Potential Solution: Recondition worn-out components using thermal-spray coatings Institutional Barrier: Related R&D program in early 1980’s was “too early”

4. Innovation Forecasting Search on basic topical terms in multiple data sources Examine results to refine query and re-do search Plot major trends and model the life cycle Identify qualitative categories for assessment of technology life cycle (e.g., academic and corporate research) Slice data by time and compare Identify and analyze special areas (e.g., gap analysis)

5. Initial Query EI Compendex “Ceramic” NEAR “Engine” (and variants) ~800 records

6. Examine Publication Trend by Industry Segment (Overview) 1.Import the raw data (Import Filters/Editor) 2.Extract Year of Publication from a coded field (Thesaurus) 3.Clean up “Corporate Source” field 4.Assign industry segment in “Corporate Source” field (Thesaurus  Groups) 5.Create a co-occurrence matrix 6.Plot the trend (VBScript  MS Excel)

7. Extract Publication Year Capture raw dataApply a thesaurus to condense the raw data User-managed thesauri are based on “Regular Expressions”

8. Clean-up Corporate Source Field Automatic with Manual confirmation –Optional, but recommended Save and/or merge clean-up operations into a thesaurus for re- use

9. Categorize Corporate Sources Create groups using a thesaurus –Corporation –Laboratory –University

10. Cumulative Publication Trends Co-occurrence matrix Plot in Excel using VBScript

11. So … It looks like something significant happened in the mid-80’s to radically increase the publication rate. It also looks like things have slowed down in (then) recent years (early- to mid-90’s). Has the technology has matured? Is it ready to transition?

12. Analyze Selected Areas

13. U.S. Patents – Ceramic Coating (cumulative) Forecasting – Counting Patents Plot Model (Coeff. Det. > 0.95) Predict “significant technology growth in the next 9 years” Monitor (Leap to today)

14. Look for existing forecasts Create groups of records using a thesaurus (e.g. “forecast” “projection” “future” “market study”) Made “leap” to electronics industry Identified expert The rest is history PIEZOELECTRIC DEVICES - Manufacture

15. Results 1997 –Prepared case for new effort on reconditioning engine components using thermal-spray coatings –U.S. Army invested $2M in 5-year R&D program Today –Installing reconditioning equipment at Red River Army Depot for production use –Expected Near-term payback ~ $5.5M

16. References and Contact Information “Innovation Forecasting” by Robert J. Watts and Alan L. Porter, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 56, 25-47 (1997). Paul Frey, Search Technology, Inc., Atlanta, GA –PaulF@searchtech.com –770.441.1457 Web Sites –www.searchtech.com –www.TheVantagePoint.com