1. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Karl Henriksson Ulf Jonsson Swedish Defence Research Agency Construction of a tool for economic analysis of force structures, and its use in the transformation of the Swedish Armed Forces

2. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Agenda Context of the tool The tool it self Cross-road issue Basis of the tool Lessons Learned Conclusions

3. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Now + 10 years + 20 years Step 1 Armed Forces Structures Step 2 Legacy structure Future Concepts and vision Method - Long Term Planning

4. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se EBV - The Tool EBV - Swedish acronym for “Economical Calculation Tool” Spread sheet model Big data base Economical calculations of complete future Force Structures –Economical possibilities of implementation within the timeframe –Highlighting the important decisions during the period 2005-2007 –Operational use –Entire national infrastructure –Modelling of different manning provision solutions Quick answers to big questions

5. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Cross-road issue Conscription Professional forces Full time employed soldiers

6. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Basis of the tool Quick economic calculation of different Force Structures over time The base for calculation is the land, sea and air units Modelling different manning provisions Modelling different infrastructure for training Calculation of “phasing in” and “phasing out” units and equipment

7. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Year 1-3 Year 4-6Year 10-14Year 15-19 Levelling the use of appropriation Year 7-9 £ Alt 1 Roughly levelling the use of appropriations OperationProcurement Phasing out Development Alt 2 £ Level of appropriation OperationProcurement Phasing out Development

8. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Lessons Learned - Pros General One single computer model = Consistent calculations MS Excel is flexible –“Common knowledge”. –Easy to make changes in the tool EBV The tool is well suited for its purpose The tool has been easy to use Created wider awareness in the SwAF HQ of economical thinking

9. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Lessons Learned - Cons General When constructing a model it is important to first find out –which data is readily available –what types of results are desired by decision-makers and the way to deliver the results. Decide on the level of generalisation of the model and try to stick to it. Organisational inexperience of conceptual modelling => poor acceptance Don’t use the model outside its area of validity EBV Risk of Force Structures design directly in the tool Paradox: initial doubts => great enthusiasm => disapproval –Wrong expectations of the level of detail in the results of the tool

10. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Conclusions A very useful tool Figure out what types of results are desired by decision-makers Use already existing data when constructing a model Communicate what the model can and cannot be used for and don’t let it be used for anything else.

11. SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Questions? karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se