1. Climate Prediction Center Update Briefing for OFCM – Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services Jim Laver, CPC May 3, 2005 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

2. Outline NOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, Matrix NOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, Matrix CPC Services, Products, Partnerships CPC Services, Products, Partnerships The Climate Test Bed The Climate Test Bed Reanalysis Reanalysis

3. CPC NOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, Matrix

4. Climate Forcing Climate & Ecosystems Observations & Analysis Regional Decision Support Predictions & Projections (includes CPC) Programs Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond OUTCOMES 1.A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions 2.Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and Relationship to its 2005 Strategic Plan

5. CPC: Climate Services Mission: Assess and Predict short-term climate variabilityMission: Assess and Predict short-term climate variability “short-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year; “short-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year; consider the longer term context consider the longer term context Responsibilities/Scope: Deliver and improve - operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions; national and “global”, with an historical contextResponsibilities/Scope: Deliver and improve - operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions; national and “global”, with an historical context Vision: Climate predictions as reliable and applicable as weather predictionsVision: Climate predictions as reliable and applicable as weather predictions

6. Services: Climate & Weather Extreme Events Tropical Storms Droughts/Floods Trends Tropics - El Niño, La Niña Extratropics - Jet Patterns Climate Change Weather Climate Variability Climate Variability

7. CPC Service Activities Climate Monitoring – Regional, GlobalClimate Monitoring – Regional, Global Climate Outlooks – U. S. & U. S. InterestsClimate Outlooks – U. S. & U. S. Interests Outreach and Dissemination – Internet, AWIPS, NAWIPS, E-MailOutreach and Dissemination – Internet, AWIPS, NAWIPS, E-Mail

8. Climate Monitoring Activities State of Global Oceans – Surface, SubsurfaceState of Global Oceans – Surface, Subsurface Global Precipitation and Surface TemperatureGlobal Precipitation and Surface Temperature Drought – Global Land/Soil ConditionsDrought – Global Land/Soil Conditions Global & Regional Atmospheric CirculationGlobal & Regional Atmospheric Circulation Stratospheric Circulation / OzoneStratospheric Circulation / Ozone Cryosphere – Arctic & Antarctic IceCryosphere – Arctic & Antarctic Ice Episodic Events – Volcanoes, Solar ActivityEpisodic Events – Volcanoes, Solar Activity

9. Multi-Agency Monitoring Product

10. Climate Outlook Products Tropical Pacific SSTs (ENSO)Tropical Pacific SSTs (ENSO) Hazard AssessmentsHazard Assessments - Day 3-14 Precipitation and Temperature OutlooksPrecipitation and Temperature Outlooks - Days 6-10, Days 8-14, Monthly & Seasonal Seasonal Drought OutlooksSeasonal Drought Outlooks Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic, Pacific)Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic, Pacific) UV IndexUV Index

11. Products – Hazards Assessments

12. Making a Seasonal Outlook for April-June 2005

13. OCN

14. CAS CDC Scripps CFS IRI OCN+skill mask OCN ECCA OFFICIAL Absent: CCA, SMT, MRK, CA-SST, local effects, judgment

15. Multi-Decadal Conditions Associated with Above Normal Hurricane Activity These conditions are conducive to tropical storm and hurricane formation as disturbances move westward from Africa into the low- shear environment (red area) of the tropical Atlantic. Higher Pressure Aloft Favorable mid level jet stream Upper-level Easterlies Expand to Cover Tropical Atlantic Weaker Easterly Trade Winds August-October Warmer SSTs Lower Surface Pressure Low Vertical Wind Shear

16. Since 1995, 8 of 10 seasons have been above normal. We can expect continued high levels of activity for perhaps the next 10-20 years.

17. Product for DoD: International UV Index Outlook

18. We Improve Services & Products Through Partnerships NWSNWS – –Regions, WFOs, RFCs (e.g., drought, product dissemination/interpretation, NAME project ) – – Climate Services Division (outreach; user feedback; identifying user needs; education) – –EMC (dynamical seasonal predictions; week-2 outlooks; Reanalysis – Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System) – –TPC (Hurricane Season Outlooks) – –HPC (International Desks, WX/CX connection/hazards, HydroMet Testbed) – –OPC and SPC (Hazards Assessments)

19. Partnerships, Cont’d NOAANOAA – –CDC (seasonal outlooks; week-2 outlooks; climate monitoring; ENSO outlooks; climate variability research; climate attribution and Reanalysis….; MOU) – –GFDL (global ocean models; ocean data assimilation; climate attribution) – –NCDC (climate monitoring; drought monitoring and outlooks; annual climate summaries; MOU) – –OGP (applied research support; ARCs) – –AOML (Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks)

20. Partnerships, Cont’d Inter-agency – –USDA (drought monitoring and outlooks; global crop monitoring related Wx/Cx support; Crop Bulletin) – –NASA/GMAO (seasonal and intraseasonal outlooks; Ozone monitoring) – –EPA (ultraviolet monitoring and forecasts) – –DoD (ultraviolet monitoring) – –FEMA (seasonal and extended-range forecasts) – –USAID (humanitarian support; climate monitoring) – –DoE (heating/cooling degree days)

21. Partnerships, Cont’d University & International – –International Desks (African Desk, South American,….) – – COLA; U WA; Scripps; COAPS (seasonal outlooks; applied research) – –Bi-lateral agreements (China, Korea, Vietnam) – –Canada; Mexico (North American Drought Monitor; North American Monsoon Eexperiment) – –WMO (ENSO outlooks; Int’l Regional Climate Centers) – –IRI (dynamical forecasts/tools; Advisory Board) – –Pacific (Monthly New Zealand/PR conference calls)

22. Climate Test Bed The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) Climate Community Climate Community NOAA Research & Development NOAA Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

23. The CTB “Message”: Why it’s Important The NOAA CTB will: Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader outside research community by providing an operational testing environment Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader outside research community by providing an operational testing environment Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making end users. Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making end users.

24. Reanalysis: Why it’s Important The Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System (OACS)

25. Societal Benefits Climate Variability and Change Ocean Resources Disasters Energy Health Agriculture Ecosystem Water Resources GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems” Global Observing Systems GCOS GOOS GTOS WHYCOS World Weather IGBP IOOS CEOS IGOS Global Observing Systems GCOS GOOS GTOS WHYCOS World Weather IGBP IOOS CEOS IGOS National/Multinational Observing Systems Satellites Surface Obs. Radar Aircraft Ocean Observations Paleo-data National/Multinational Observing Systems Satellites Surface Obs. Radar Aircraft Ocean Observations Paleo-data Private Sector Observing Systems Satellites Mesonets Lightning Commercial Aircraft Private Sector Observing Systems Satellites Mesonets Lightning Commercial Aircraft 25 Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System

26. Reanalysis and The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Proposed synthesis and assessment topic – Product 1.3: “Reanalysis of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change.” Significance: (CCSP Strategic Plan, chapter 2). Significance: “Understanding the magnitude of past climate variations is key to increasing confidence in the understanding of how and why climate has changed and how it may change in the future.” (CCSP Strategic Plan, chapter 2). Primary end use: “To inform policy decisions.” (chap. 11). Primary end use: “To inform policy decisions.” (chap. 11). Time frame for product: 2-4 years (chap. 11). Time frame for product: 2-4 years (chap. 11). Proposed lead agency: NOAA. Proposed lead agency: NOAA. Supporting agencies: NASA, DOE, (NSF). Supporting agencies: NASA, DOE, (NSF).

27. Reprocessing and Reanalysis are essential Given the continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound. Workshop report distributed See workshop web site (http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings /climatesystem/) for pdf version of report and background information from the workshop.http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings /climatesystem/ Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System 18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado

28. The Workshop concluded that the U.S. must establish a National Program for Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System to provide a retrospective and ongoing physically consistent synthesis of earth observations in order to: Design and guide operation of observing systemsDesign and guide operation of observing systems Produce and sustain the growing climate recordProduce and sustain the growing climate record Reconcile disparate climate observations and characterize analysis uncertaintyReconcile disparate climate observations and characterize analysis uncertainty Establish initial conditions for climate predictionEstablish initial conditions for climate prediction Validate prediction and projection models on all time scalesValidate prediction and projection models on all time scales Provide long time series of global and regional climatic analyses for all types of prediction and projection verificationProvide long time series of global and regional climatic analyses for all types of prediction and projection verification Reanalysis - OACS Workshop Conclusions

29. Reanalysis Summary & Strategy A complete climate observing system requires both ongoing, near-real time analyses of the physical climate together with periodic reanalyses that use improved data sets and data assimilation methods. Both are essential components of a long-term climate observing strategy.A complete climate observing system requires both ongoing, near-real time analyses of the physical climate together with periodic reanalyses that use improved data sets and data assimilation methods. Both are essential components of a long-term climate observing strategy. The CCSP requirement/deliverable provides an opportunity to initiate planning needed for development of the OACS.The CCSP requirement/deliverable provides an opportunity to initiate planning needed for development of the OACS. –CCSP high-priority synthesis and assessment products are short-term deliverables (next 1-4 years). While they may take different forms, they are typically envisioned as “state-of-science” reports. –Without doubt, the CCSP synthesis reports place another “burden” on the science community. They are also an opportunity. So far, climate analysis and reanalysis efforts have focused principally on the atmosphere. A longer-term strategy must be developed to analyze and eventually bring together the other, disparate components of the Earth system (oceans, land, cryosphere, hydrology, biosphere) through coupled model assimilation. This will enable a more comprehensive synthesis and understanding of the climate system.So far, climate analysis and reanalysis efforts have focused principally on the atmosphere. A longer-term strategy must be developed to analyze and eventually bring together the other, disparate components of the Earth system (oceans, land, cryosphere, hydrology, biosphere) through coupled model assimilation. This will enable a more comprehensive synthesis and understanding of the climate system. International coordination is absolutely essential to a successful program – GEOSS must have an OACS!International coordination is absolutely essential to a successful program – GEOSS must have an OACS!