1. Cultural Trends Affecting Leaders Source: George Barna www.barna.org

2. Why pay attention to trends? Clarifies ministry context Fosters relevance Enhances stewardship Connects with people more efficiently and effectively

3. Which trends matter? The difference between “interesting” and “useful” information John 3:16 … –A phone number?

4. Five Megatrends 1.Financial pressure is now the norm. 2.Email is now the standard communication m.o. 3.The Internet is now the prime info source (ie. medical) 4.There is a new baby boom going on. +4 million births/year Busters having babies earlier Boomers beating the biological clock 5.Fasting growing ethnic: Hispanic 35% growth between now and 2010 (vs. 11%)

5. Lifestyle Trends Student performance affected negatively by part-time jobs (esp.+15 hrs) Moms in the Labor force 70% work for paycheck –55% of all mothers with infants

6. Columbia study of Parental Influence on Kids 1.Monitoring TV 2.Monitoring Internet use 3.Music selection 4.Knowing whereabouts 5.Awareness of academic performance 6.Reasonable Curfews 7.Expectations re: substance abuse (“very upset”) 8.Eating dinner together 9.Household chores 10.No latchkey

7. 4 Primary American Regrets “If I had it to do over …” 1.Better education (77%) 2.Have more fun (65) 3.Seek more adventure (48) 4.Know myself better (46)

8. Health Trends Weight gain –60% overweight, 25% obese –46 admit it, 25% actively trying to lose weight –70% adults not actively exercise, 40% never –We consume 158 pounds of sweeteners per year –Child obesity growing by 13%

9. Health Trends Alcohol –On the rise 31% HS students binge once a month 44% college –25% of all alcohol consumed in U.S. is by kids between age 12 to 25!

10. Church Growth Trends 1.20% of all Protestant churches started since 1990 2.Growth is usually related to contemporary worship 3.Increase of Hispanics leaving Catholicism for evangelicalism 4.Confidence in churches is at an all- time low

11. Faith Trends 1.Acceptance of occult yet rejection of Satan 2.Universalism/syncretism way up 3.Blurring of doctrinal distinctions across faiths –Bible, Koran, & Torah are perceived as more or less identical 4.People googling the internet for their theological info vs. local churches, pastors, etc.

12. Sequence for Gathering Info 1.Focus groups 2.Demographic survey 3.Written leadership survey 4.“Depth” interviews with open questions 5.Lapsed attendees survey 6.Current attendees survey 7.Weekend workers and trainees

13. What to learn from gathering info Find out what you’re doing well, too. Use research as a tool, not an end. Be redundant and multiple. Share data on “need-to-know” basis. Real leadership is about meeting real needs, not just “felt” needs.

14. Denominational Research to Enhance Congregational Health What kind of data do you measure? (EFCA) –Beyond A.B.C.’s –The 10 EFCA Core Values 1.Church planting 2.Leadership 3.Mission and Vision 4.Evangelism 5.Disciple making 6.Relationships 7.Stewardship 8.God’s Word 9.Spirituality 10. Worship

15. What We Did with the Research We learned … 81% of their churches had not planted in 5 years 74% had no plan to plant 59% gave less than 2% to it 28% gave nothing to it We then … Reiterated core values Called churches to pre- planting spiritual activities (pray, survey neighborhoods) Reallocated and deployed larger $/human resources to the core planting value

16. What We Learned 1.Measure, don’t assume/guess. 2.Measure what counts. 3.Commit to do something about the results. 4.Most churches want to be effective and just need tools.

17. Sources of Info www.barna.org (Barna Research Group)www.barna.org www.census.gov www.gallup.com www.harrisinteractive.com/news www.isr.umich.edu/src (Institute of Social Research)www.isr.umich.edu/src www.wkkf.org/knowledgebase (Kellogg Foundation)www.wkkf.org/knowledgebase www.cdc.gov.nchs (National Center for Health Stats)www.cdc.gov.nchs www.nfow.com (NFO Research)www.nfow.com www.norc.uchicago.edu (National Opinion Research)www.norc.uchicago.edu www.ropercenter.uconn.edu (Roper Center)www.ropercenter.uconn.edu www.roperasw.com/newsroom

18. Cultural Trends Affecting Leaders Dr. John P. Chandler www.rasnet.org John.chandler@vbmb.org Copy right John P. Chandler, 2002