1. Aum Shinrikyo’s Failed Strategic Subculture ALEX BURNS (ALEX@ALEXBURNS.NET)ALEX@ALEXBURNS.NET SPS SYMPOSIUM, 29 TH OCTOBER 2014 PHD CANDIDATE, SCHOOL OF POLITICS & SOCIAL INQUIRY, MONASH UNIVERSITY

2. 2014 PhD Milestones  International Studies Association roundtable ‘Strategic Culture Is Dead; Long Live Strategic Culture: New Directions in Research’, 27 th March 2014, Toronto, Canada  Co-authored Contemporary Security Policy article ‘Australia’s Strategic Culture: Constraints and Opportunities in Security Policy Making’ (with Deakin University’s Ben Eltham)  East-West Center in Washington DC invited presentation as part of ‘Asian Responses to Perceptions of Asia-Pacific Strategic Cultures’, 16 th October 2014 (delivered by Wooster College’s Jeffrey S. Lantis)

3. Strategic Culture Defined: Jack Snyder  Formulated in 1977 by Jack Snyder for a RAND monograph on Ford and Carter administration détente and the Soviet Union  “Individuals are socialized into a distinctly Soviet mode of thinking... a set of general beliefs, attitudes and behavioral patterns... that places them on the level of “culture” rather than mere “policy”...” [emphasis added] (Snyder 1977: v)  “Culture is perpetuated not only by individuals but also by organizations.” (Snyder 1977: 9).  “Strategic subculture:... a subsection of the broader strategic community... Reasonably distinct beliefs and attitudes.” (Snyder 1977: 10).

4. Aum Shinrikyo as Strategic Subculture  Decision elite  Aum’s senior leadership attempted to model Japanese continuity of government protocols  Initiatory / religious and entrepreneurial / shell company sub-systems / socialisation  Asahara’s deity yoga experience at age 30 in 1985 (Lifton: 20)  Asahara’s synthesis of Hindu Tantra, Tibetan Buddhist, Christian evangelical and Nostradamus / New Age beliefs → Aum’s initiatory / religious doctrines, rituals, and practices  Front-companies used for R&D, weapons acquisition, and media / propaganda campaigns  Compartmentalised program to develop chemical / biological weapons  Greater emphasis after Aum’s political campaign failure in 1990 Japanese Diet elections  20 th March 1995 sarin gas attack on Tokyo subway system  Program was relatively unsuccessful / over-hyped (Milton Leitenberg)  Program validated the rise of ‘new terrorism’ experts (Lisa Stampnitzky)

5. Research Methodology  Primary research methodology  Causation coding (Johnny Saldana 163-165) to identify decision pathway of Aum renunciates  Narrative / thematic coding (Catherine Kohler Riessman; Kathleen MacQueen; Leonard Webster) for strategic subculture narrative arcs, symbols, and themes  Other theoretical / methodological perspectives considered  Counterfactuals (political scientist Richard Ned Lebow)  Genius and creativity research on leaders (psychologist Dean Keith Simonton)  Micro-sociology of violence / interaction rituals (sociologist Randall Collins)  Microfoundations of social science (philosopher Daniel Little)  Narrative therapy and social construction (psychotherapist Michael White)  Political psychology study of leadership (psychologist Jerrold M. Post)

6. Robert Jay Lifton  Psychohistorian and ‘thought reform’ theory (1961)  Psychobiographer of Aum founder Shoko Asahara  Lifton diagnoses functional megalomania in Asahara  Charismatic religious gurus (Anthony Storr)  Southeast Asian deity experiences (Frederick M. Smith)  Macrofoundations model of apocalyptic violence  Builds on Lifton’s earlier psychohistorical studies  Comparable to Walter Laqueur’s ‘new terrorism’ thesis  Branch Davidians at Waco; Timothy McVeigh and Oklahoma City bombing; Heavens Gate; and Charles Manson / Jim Jones  Aum as a “phantom cell – a few hundred hidden activists seeking to destroy the world” (Lifton 340)

7. Haruki Murakami  Japanese novelist influenced by United States historian Studs Terkel – oral history approach to interviews  In 1996, Murakami interviewed 60 victims of the 1995 sarin gas attack, and 8 current and mid-level / low-level Aum renunciates  Personal, subjective experience of Shoko Asahara as guru  Microfoundations viewpoint on initiatory / religious sub-system  Reactions to discovery of Aum’s compartmentalised biological and chemical weapons development program  Aum as a reflection of the darker undercurrents of contemporary Japanese society  Aum renunciate experience with psychosocial pressures  Pre-World War II Manchuria analogy (Murakami 360-361)

8. Case Study Provisional Findings  Strategic subculture explanation emphasises new dynamics  Spillover effects from Christian evangelical and Occulture cultural transmission  Mirror-imaging (Robert Jervis) with United States: Asahara and Reagan Administration SDI program’s interest in laser and other new weapons development systems  Links to Japanese military history (Unit 731) and Tibet’s fragmentation age (Jacob P. Dalton)  Murakami’s data suggests a microfoundations model of strategic culture  Individual subjective experience of strategic culture / subcultures  Aum Shinrikyo failed as a strategic subculture  Most of the decision elite / senior leadership were jailed after 1995 Tokyo sarin gas attack  Lack of organisational coherence over time → successors Aleph and Hikari no Wa (Erica Baffelli)  Asahara’s personal synthesis unravelled and missed counterfactual opportunities

9. Discussion