1. North East Lincolnshire Employment Land Study Reefer Conference 30 March 2007

2. CONTENTS  The study brief  Context –Policy –The economy  Employment land futures –Demand to 2016 –Land supply –Market balance  What do you think? –Where’s the demand coming from? –Is the market delivering? –What sites will and won’t be taken up? –What do we need more of?

3. THE STUDY BRIEF  Employment space means factories, warehouses and offices  The study will inform the new Local Development Framework  Key questions –How much employment land should the planners provide? –Which existing sites should be retained for employment?  Estuary Sites  Port related sites  Euro Parc 4 –And which might be released for housing or other uses? –Should more land be found for employment uses? –If so, what for and where? –What else should the Council do about business space?  Status of our report –Information and advice to the Council –Showing feasible options and their consequences –The Council will take the final decisions

4. CONTEXT National Policy - Jobs v Housing  Jobs used to be the first planning priority – –Ensuring enough land for economic development  But housing has become the national planning priority  In most of England we need less land for employment –Because unemployment is at a near record low –And we are swapping factory jobs for office jobs (which use less space)  At the same time England needs more land for houses –Smaller household sizes  So Government guidance aims to increase the supply of housing land –At the potential expense of employment land –Build houses on former employment land which is no longer needed –And employment allocations which have not been taken up –Be careful not to oversupply employment land  It’s a good policy where land is in short supply  And there’s no need for many more jobs….  But not necessarily in NE Lincs

5. National Policy Meeting the Needs of Business  Government Guidance –‘Sites allocated for employment need to reflect the changing requirements of businesses and local economies’ –Employment land studies will show what the needs are

6. The Economy  Unemployment is slightly higher than the norm –NE Lincs 6.6% –Y&H 5.3% –GB 5.2%  Jobs tend to be poorly paid and poorly skilled –Only 26% of jobs are ‘professional’  Great Britain 42%  Yorkshire and the Humber 37% –And 33% of jobs are unskilled manual  Great Britain 19%  Yorkshire and the Humber 22% –Average earnings 9.40 per hour  Great Britain 11.76  Yorkshire and the Humber 10.29  NE Lincs is rich in industries that are losing jobs –Food, drink and tobacco –Chemicals, rubber and plastics –Transport –Wholesaling

7. The Economy Continued  So today NE Lincs needs more jobs –And higher-paid, higher-skilled jobs –Provide workforce with improved skills to match  But in the the future it may need fewer jobs: –Yorkshire Forward forecast nil population growth –(Yorks and the Humber grows by 8.9%) –And an aging population  So the workforce will decline –Not clear if this takes account of RSS housing policy  Will investigate

8. EMPLOYMENT LAND FUTURES

9. EMPLOYMENT LAND FUTURES How much Land should NEL Provide?  The Local Plan is now time expired  The 1993 Humberside Structure Plan is out of date  The County Council no longer exists  Regional guidance is now provided by the Regional Assembly  Working with Yorkshire Forward

10. Future Employment Change 2004-16  Land requirement is derived from employment forecasts –by Experian for Yorkshire Forward  As required by the Draft Regional Plan (RSS)  The forecast shows NEL employment unchanged –No B space jobs show a little growth –And B space jobs decline even faster…  Because more jobs shift into non B space sectors –Retail, Education and Health etc..  Sectors in which NE Lincolnshire is strong in decline faster than average  NEL’s key sectors lose jobs very fast –Food, Drink and Tobacco – 25%, 1,200 jobs –Transport – 12%, 700 jobs –Wholesaling – 10%, 500 jobs –Chemicals, rubber and plastics - 20%, 500 jobs

11. The Upside Scenario  Yorkshire Forward have also developed a more optimistic model  In which many of the regions major sites get developed  Adding 9,000 FTE jobs into NE Lincolnshire –Of which nearly 7000 in B space

12. The Transformational Projects

13. Land Supply and Market Balance  The Port –Lots of port land – 200ha –But where are the port jobs –Will they grow?  Despite increased automation etc  And slower growth in imports?  General Industrial –40 ha –Of which 20 is at Europarc  Is there too much land?  Will it all be taken up?

14. WHAT DO YOU THINK? Demand  Who takes up space in NE Lincs?  What do they do?  Why do they want to be there?  Any inward investors?  From where?  What do they do?  Do they include office occupiers?  Where is NE Lincs competing with for inward investment?  What are its advantages?  And its disadvantages?  What are occupiers looking for?  Can they get it?  Any gaps in the market?

15. Market Conditions  How tight is the market? –Availability –Space in the pipeline  Rents –Industrial –Office –Small/incubator units –Are rents high enough to support development? –What is the role of Council provision?  If more space was provided, would it let?  What kinds of space, where?  Why is more not provided?  Lack of sites?  Or lack of available sites?

16. Sites – What are the Prospects?  Office development –There’s almost no land supply –Should there be?  General industrial sites –Remaining and proposed Europarc –Others?  Ports and estuary– –What is the land demand for? –Is there enough land (200+ ha?) –Is it too constrained – RAMSAR etc…. –Do you need more – elsewhere? (abandon the existing?) –Will the port produce new jobs? –Mechanisation –Low density employment –What type of jobs? –Experian forecast decline in transport jobs… is this right?

17. Sites and Prospects Continued  ‘Value added’ port activity –What is it? –What type of land does it need? –How much realistically can nel get? –Dependent on the energy corridor and Humber Bundle? –Food production –Advanced engineering / manufacturing; and –Environmental technologies / industries  Chemicals  Again, Experian forecast decline  Can anything be done to stop this? –Servicing the chemical industry

18. And Finally  What else does the Council need to do?