1. The Challenge of: Food Security Maggie Gill Chief Scientific Adviser Rural Affairs and Environment

2. Origins of the CAP 1950s – food supplies could not be guaranteed Governments in Europe wanted to encourage increased agricultural productivity to ensure supplies of affordable food for citizens

3. EU surpluses over time (1991-2008) for wheat, beef, and butter European Commission, DG AGRI, Discussion Paper December 2009 – Why do we need a Common Agricultural Policy?

6. Reasons behind food price spike of 2007 Low projected global stocks/use ratios in 2007/08 Rapid increase in energy prices Significant weakening of the US $ Export restrictions in a number of countries

7. Food in 2010 ~ 7 billion people on earth ~ 925 million don’t get enough to eat ~ 1 billion eat diets missing in micronutrients ~ 1 billion eat considerably more than they need (obese)

8. 2011 Can we produce enough food to feed the global population today? Yes Do we succeed in distributing food equitably? No

9. Definition of Food Security “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” [FAO, World Food Summit 1996]

10. 2050 Will we be able to feed 9 billion people sustainably and equitably in 2050? That depends…. Question addressed by: Foresight: The Future of Food and farming (2011) http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our- work/projects/current-projects/global-food-and- farming-futures

11. Foresight recommends action on: More food must be produced sustainably; Demand for the most resource- intensive types of food must be contained; Waste in all areas of food must be minimised; The political and economic governance of food must be improved

12. Drivers of future challenges Population increases Size and nature of per capita demand Trade issues in food and land Climate change Competition for key resources Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers

13. Future of CAP for Food Security........needs to incentivise resource efficient food production

14. What do we mean by resource efficient?

15. Use of Feed concentrate Million tonnes19802005 Developed countries 668.7647.4 Developing countries 239.6602.7 World908.41250.1

16. Food Conversion Ratio for Different Systems of Livestock Production Human Edible Protein Output (kg input/kg output) Total Protein Intake Upland lamb35.7 Upland suckler beef26.3 ‘Cereal’ beef8.3 Milk5.6 Pig meat4.3 Poultry meat3.0 (Wilkinson, 2011)

17. Food Conversion Ratio for Different Systems of Livestock Production Human Edible Protein Output (kg input/kg output) Total Protein Intake Human Edible Intake Upland lamb35.71.6 Upland suckler beef26.30.92 ‘Cereal’ beef8.33.0 Milk5.60.71 Pig meat4.32.6 Poultry meat3.02.1 (Wilkinson, 2011)

18. Variation in Technical Performance on Farm Source: CAFRE, DARD Significant opportunity exists to reduce emissions within current practice. 2,500L difference

19. Drivers of future challenges Population increases Size and nature of per capita demand Trade issues in food and land Climate change Competition for key resources Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers

20. Highest priority changes to consumption (Foresight report) reducing food waste reducing consumption of food and drink of low nutritional value16, i.e. fatty and sugary foods, tea, coffee and alcohol reducing consumption of meat and dairy products...... Based on evidence of both health and sustainability benefits

21. Global trade in livestock products Million tonnes19802006 Pig2.610.4 Poultry1.511.1 Cattle4.39.2 Sheep0.81.1

22. Scottish meat production by type Tonnes dry carcass wt 20002007 Beef177,000188,000 Mutton and lamb74,00066,000 Pigmeat72,00058,000 Poultry142,00097,000

23. Take away messages Pillar 1 support post 2013 needs to incentivise resource-efficient production ‘Resources’ need to include land (food security) and productivity of individual livestock (climate change) CAP cannot provide a solution to deal with trade-offs – we each have a responsibility