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Characteristics of Trend Following Returns Presentation to FIA Expo Conference November 6, 2003 Graham Capital Management, L.P.

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Presentation on theme: "Characteristics of Trend Following Returns Presentation to FIA Expo Conference November 6, 2003 Graham Capital Management, L.P."— Presentation transcript:

1 Characteristics of Trend Following Returns Presentation to FIA Expo Conference November 6, 2003 Graham Capital Management, L.P.

2 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 838485868788899091929394959697989900010203 Lehman Brothers Treasury Bond Index S&P 500 Total Return IndexZCM/MAR-Trend-Follower Advisors Index NAV Chart Jan 1, 1983 - Sep 30, 2003

3 Graham Capital Management, L.P. ZCM/MAR Trend Following Index Key Statistics Jan 1, 1983 - Sep 30, 2003  Compound Annual Return  Standard Deviation of Monthly Returns  Volatility of Up Months  Volatility of Down Months  Annualized Volatility of Monthly Returns  Efficiency Ratio 13.20% 6.34% 5.63% 3.16% 21.97% 0.60%

4 Graham Capital Management, L.P. Correlation of Trend Following Returns

5 Graham Capital Management, L.P. Trend Following Returns During Worst/Best S&P 500 Months

6 Graham Capital Management, L.P.

7 “Option Premium” “Low Volatility” Low Profit Potential “High Volatility” HIGH Profit Potential “Limited Loss” “Low Volatility” Low Profit Potential “High Volatility” HIGH Profit Potential Characteristics of Trend Following Returns

8 Graham Capital Management, L.P. Characteristics of Trend Following Returns Key Takeaways :  Trend Following has produced long-term double digit annualized returns  Trend Following has higher volatility on a stand alone basis than many other hedge fund strategies  Trend Following returns have been an excellent source of diversification for long only strategies and most other hedge fund strategies  Trend Following has provided diversification when you need it most  Trend Following tends to create a long option profile, high upside volatility with limited downside losses


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