1. Weather Outlook 2015 & Beyond
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University

2. Corn/Soybean Market Market @9am 4 Jun 2015
ELEC. CORN[10] Jul '4 -0'4
Dec '4 -0'4
expect $ 385'
ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul '4 -1'2
Nov '0 -1'0
expect $ 825'
4 Jun 2015

4. SOI 3 Jun 2015 = -9.2 (-10 is full strength El Niño)
SOI 3 Jun 2015 = (-10 is full strength El Niño)

5. High risk Moderate High
Beyond
High risk Moderate High

6. El Niño Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino tends to be a Christmas event that may or may not persist through the Midwest growing season).

7. Moderate El Niño Strong La Niña

8. Summer Temperature 2010
This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years

9. La Niña : Extremes

10. La Niña: 70% chance of yield
smaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yield
greater than the trend.
El Niño: 70% chance of yield
greater than the trend.

11. (Oct to date) October 2009 El Niño To La Niña October 2010 to 2012
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
El Niño To
La Niña
October 2010
to 2012 .

12. Return to El Niño

13. US Corn
Wisner
195 81
146
159 $4.85
178
162.3
165 $4.15
170 $3.85 *
* Central. IA $3.35
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”

15. US Soybean
Wisner 23 59 40
41 $10.70 50 45
44 $8.50
46 $8.25 *
* Central. IA $7.70
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”

16. Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is likely to be greater during the next 20 years
Management of RISK is of increasing importance

18. Beyond

19. A Little on the USA: Continental Divide Anomaly

20. Boundary is the Continental Divide, do NOT expect change

21. END Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University Climatologist
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