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Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN 55802 Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062 Fax: 218-464-4397 Email: info@bluewater-cap.com www.bluewatercapitaladvisors.com Bi-Monthly Market Review “Comprehensive Investing Strategies in 2014” (Solving Investors’ Dilemmas) March 20, 2014 11 Ted A. Pavlovich, WMS President/Wealth Mgmt. Advisor
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INTRODUCTION TED A. PAVLOVICH 2
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OUR NEW TEAM AT BWCA KEVIN M. WILSON 3 Matt TimpaneBret GitarNate Weiland
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SOLVING THE 401K PROBLEM FOR CLIENTS 4 TED A. PAVLOVICH
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Some Plans Make All Of The Decisions For You – But What If You Have To Decide?
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6 You May Have Some Choices To Make On What To Own And How Much To Own 1. Process 2. Allocation
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7 Trends Can Last A While, But Then Change Rather Suddenly
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8 We’re Different…. …We Do Our Best To Ring-Fence Your Risk
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PEELING THE ONION ON ASSET ALLOCATION 9 KEVIN M. WILSON
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10 There Are Various Risk Factors To Consider
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11 Stocks Appear Over-Valued -19 -57-49 -34 -48 -36 -22 -26
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12 Stock Prices Regress To The Mean S & P 500
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13 How We Deal With All This
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14 Momentum, Value, L/S, Yield/Carry Cliff Asness Mom. Val. L/S Y/C
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15 Alternative Bond & Stock Strategies Can Cut Risk Levels
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16 Fundamentals Help Us Pick Stocks
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REVISED OUTLOOK FOR 2014 17 KEVIN M. WILSON
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All Useful Measures Indicate Over-Valued Markets
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19 But Some Trend Indicators Have Not Yet Peaked (e.g., New Highs-New Lows)
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20 And Other Trend Indicators Have Also Not Yet Peaked (e.g., Cum. Advance-Decline)
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21 On The Other Hand, There Are Some Divergences
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22 There Are Other Factors To Consider: 1) Margin Debt at $453 Billion 2) Insider Selling Is Setting Records 3) IPO’s Are Increasingly Frothy 4) Copper & Iron Ore Prices Falling 5) Profit Margins Very High 6) Share Buybacks Decreasing 7) Cash Inflows Slower Than In 2013
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SUMMARY 23 KEVIN M. WILSON 1.We’re Able To Help With Retirement Plans 2.Our Tactical Segmentation Approach Limits Risk 3.Markets Will Correct Soon, But The Bull Run May Continue 4. Volatility May Return To Markets
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Q & A 24 KEVIN M. WILSON TED A. PAVLOVICH
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This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or commodity and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, for its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed. Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of guarantee of future performance and no representation, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. The firm does not provide tax advice; clients should contact their attorney, accountant, or other tax adviser regarding tax matters. “BWCA is a state registered investment adviser in all states in which it is required to be registered. All Blue Water Capital Advisors’ customer assets are held in the customer name with Fidelity Institutional Services, clearing through National Financial Services (NFS), Member SIPC, a Fidelity Investments Company as Qualified Custodian.” Disclaimer 25
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