1. Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE 4/22/2010, Rev. 2.0.1 fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377 www.fit.edu/~fleslie 24 Future Trends in Renewable Energy Crude Oil $65.71 on 4/25/07 $117 on 4/24/08 $50 on 4/23/09 $82 on 4/22/10 CNNMoney.com Happy Earth Day!

2. Some Energy News Google has been granted utility status to buy and sell electricity  http://www.google.org/egs/ has more info http://www.google.org/egs/ DOE funds data center efficiency research 100419

3. 24.I Introduction Sustainable energy comes from the sun or from tidal forces of the moon and sun; usually implies not using it faster than can be replenished Since fossil fuels represent millions of years of “stored sunlight”, they are not sustainable Future predictions are predicated upon uncertain trends with a lot of “noise” The future is ill-defined! 100422

4. 1 The Age of Cheap Energy is Nearly Over! “Hubbert’s Peak” indicates US oil production peaked about 1970; World peak may be 2007 Oil prices are volatile, but the long term trend is up as extraction becomes more expensive Volatile gasoline and diesel prices are increasing in the long term! Natural gas prices are rising and massive hydrogen production will speed that trend  Hydrogen will be made from natural gas first, then coal, then possibly through nuclear thermal conversion or electrolysis from wind or sun 100422

5. 24.1.1 Fossil Fuels Renewable energy is sustainable indefinitely, unlike long-stored energy from fossil fuels that will be depleted As easy-to-get fuel is extracted, costs will rise in getting the more-difficult resources; drill oil at 20,000 feet? Fuels must be transported from farther away, thus increasing total costs of it and what’s made with it 080424

6. 24.1.2 Energy Dependence upon Foreign Countries Our dependency on cheap oil has led to a slavish relationship to the oil dealers  (Like dependency on cheap drugs has led to a slavish relationship to the drug dealers) So do we need a “12-step way” to free us from our oil addiction? 100422 Is it best to use all our oil first so we can be at the mercy of outside despots? Should we use imported oil first to save our US oil for hard times later?

7. 24.1.3 “But Wait! There’s More!” We could break away from conventional fuels to use renewable energy or increase efficient use  Wind, solar, hydro, ocean tides and waves, geothermal  Most/much oil is consumed in transportation; efficiency needed The eventual energy changeover will be based more upon relative price as fossil fuels become more expensive compared to renewables These energies are diffuse compared to fossil fuels, so collection requires a large area converter Fossil fuels have been so cheap that any tending towards “normal” is alleged to be price-gouging, and people demand that the government hold prices down 100422

8. 24.2 Surfeit and Waste: What about Our Grandchildren? Consider the ethics of using up resources that our children and grandchildren, etc. may need  They might not live long enough to discover substitutes If we waste resources, we unnecessarily use what might bridge the gap to a sustainable society If bountiful fossil fuels are required to make renewable energy converters, burning them now will mean new RE converters must be made using RE  Can you imagine smelting iron using RE?  Perhaps solar thermal melt systems? 100422

9. 24.2.1 The Bountiful Life We have become conditioned to lives filled with the joys of cheap energy and little manual labor Microwave ovens are more efficient cookers than electric range “eyes”, yet they were developed to just save time Multiple family cars are the norm to allow independent travel of the family members Vehicles enable greater “urban sprawl”  Living farther away from work requires more energy-consuming travel to get there Why should a business be located “downtown”? A clean industry like Harris Corporation is essentially located in a residential area where workers can live nearby 100422

10. 24.2.2 Conspicuous Consumption Some objects are more for show than utility  V-12, 1200 hp Cadillac engine touted in ads  12,000 square foot homes  Expensive imported foods; 1500-mile salad  Long-distance air travel for an hour meeting  “Business” meetings at golf & ski resorts  Birthday party in Sardinia for Tyco exec Kozlowski’s wife  $56,000 Hummers suitable for war support on our highways Potential for a stylish new model with welded, inoperable 0.50 caliber machine gun on roof for show?  Unimog military SUVs now available (upper right) Driven to a renewable energy fair by an RE fan! Conversely, if someone wants to pay for something wasteful, shouldn’t they be allowed to buy it? 080424 http://www.unimog.net/

11. 24.2.3 Is Saving Your Own Money a “Cool” Thing to Do? Saving energy isn’t seen as important, but not “being taken” is! Don’t be a gullible chump! A change of viewpoint can persuade people to change what they buy  “Core values” (deeply held) aren’t easily changed by ranting Most people don’t think about energy costs until it’s a problem  High gasoline prices are changing that viewpoint  Life cycle costing is unknown to most people New cars are advertised by monthly payments, not price! Conservation is only a “virtue” according to Vice Pres. Dick Cheney -- What do we know? 080424

12. 24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras Cornucopians believe that “needs” and “wants” will always be provided for  Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more!  The “Horn of Plenty” is always full to overflowing!  “Don’t worry, be happy!”  “If it feels good, do it!” --- Nike trademark 080424 http://desktoppub.about.com/

13. 24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras Cornucopians believe that needs will always be provided for  Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more! Cassandras shout that “We are doomed, doomed, doomed”, and no one will listen to them!  Cassandra (mythic legend) was loved by Apollo (sun god) but she spurned him; he punished her by making her unbelievable to everyone  No matter how we try, we can’t fight these oncoming events that will be our undoing and yet no one believes us  “Woe is me!”  “We’ve told you for years that you’re doing the wrong thing!”  “What should we do instead?” No answer... 080424

14. 24.3 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras Cornucopians believe that needs will always be provided for  Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more! Cassandras believe that we are doomed, doomed, doomed!  No matter how we try, we can’t fight these oncoming events that will be our undoing We don’t have to choose one of these philosophies! 040419

15. 24.3.1 “The Horn of Plenty” Shall Always Provide As European civilization expanded to North America, necessity led to inventions that preserved life or made it easier or better  Steam train, steam engines, windmills, waterpower, electric lights, telegraph, repeating rifle, automobiles, etc. New needs led to solutions; what worked evolved into better approaches 070425 http://desktoppub.about.com/

16. 24.3.2 “The Sky is Falling”: What Shall We Do?What Shall We Do? The Malthusian Theory held that the increase in population would swamp limited resources  Death, famine, war, and pestilence would result An apocalyptic result  (It’s been postponed so far!) Scary movie: “No Blade of Grass” A group of economists, scientists, and doomsayers examine the outlook  RunningOnEmpty.com  DieOff.com  Caution: these sites may not be suitable for children or adults!  Still, there is great emphasis on self-sufficiency 080424 http://www.postermaniacs.com/originals/onesheets/no_blade_of_grass.jpg

17. 24.4 Energy Information Sources and Beliefs Information sources should be skeptically analyzed  Whose info is it? What or who do they represent? What do they really want? What’s their agenda?  Sometimes animal rights organizations push vegan diets for good health, but they really want no animals killed for food PETA now pressing for cloned synthetic chicken so real chickens won’t be killed Beliefs of an organization may taint or slant data  Nonconforming info is ignored as it doesn’t match their dogma  They take surveys of their members (0.5% of population) and contend that represents the Nation as a whole  Sometimes pure hatred of the opposition overwhelms the group and taints every viewpoint 080424

18. 24.4.1 How Much Info Trust is Demanded? Is information available to us accurate and complete? How does the information provider make money?  Their existence depends upon public hysteria? Does the cash flow diminish if the truth is told?  When polio was conquered, “March of Dimes” switched to another childhood disease to support the organization staff US Energy Information Agency is a USA official source  Detailed info considered, validated, and published  Delayed about 2-3 years sometimes Commercial industry sources  Platts  American Wind Energy Association 100422

19. 24.4.2 Agendas, Slants, & Scams Agendas (often are hidden)  Wants dam removal for river rafting; argues fish are being killed  Likes yachting in Narragansett Bay; argues wind farms interfere with navigation (in shallow water yet)  Wants next-door forest to remain; they plant endangered species to “be discovered” --- can’t clear this! Slants  Carefully selects info to push the “message”; rejects opposite view; “framing” dominates the information  Selects minor views of opponents and trumpets them Scams  Venture capital gatherers with wistful, visionary “products”  Donation of solicitations with 70% going to staff salaries  Central issue changes to protect organization staff jobs 100422

20. 24.4.3 Direct Effects Upon Consumers High energy bills strain budgets as prices rise  Electricity (and affects those bought from)  Gasoline (and affects those bought from)  Natural Gas (and affects those bought from) High gasoline prices  Too high if majority buys fuel efficient vehicles; but not high if majority buys poor efficiency vehicles (like 12-16 mph SUVs) The “Time” magazine effect: Whenever a subject is so trendy that editors put it on the front cover of Time magazine, the trend may be over  Misleads public to think this is “coming issue” when it’s past  “Smart money” is bailing out; don’t rush in to invest  Avoid investing in something that will occur 20 years in future 100422

21. 24.5 What Does the Future Hold for Our Children Now? People that we know, children and grandchildren, will suffer from increased fossil fuel prices (perhaps taxes) Those that we don’t know, greatgreatgrandchildren may have it even worse; for great 7 grandchildren, worse yet MEMEME What we do today affects future generations --- shouldn’t we care? (Is it really “All about ME ! ME ! ME !”) A surging world population will fight to get or control energy sources, leading to wars far worse than Iraq  People of Third-World countries will crave to live as those do in the highly over-consuming U.S. and marketeers will ensure this Effect of global TV influences and makes people aware of distant consumption trends; “I want to live like those people in those TV shows!” Major cause of Watts, CA riots in 1965 100422

22. 24.5.1 My Energy Costs Forecast Crude Oil  Prices become extremely volatile, destabilizing the market Gasoline  Prices rise to $6-10 per gallon (CPI-adjusted) within your lifetimes, and taxes will be extra! Electricity  Comes from more diverse sources, with growing renewables used as fossil fuel, becomes more expensive by twice Public Transportation  Aircraft: Oil costs may preclude, or use of gases may require, frequent landing to refuel limited energy storage tanks  Trains: Take over some air traffic, but tracks are vulnerable to easy terrorist attack because they are accessible for miles  Trucking Industry: Expands to carry more people in posh cargo containers similar to Victorian train cars -- a specially bus 100422

23. 24.5.2 Energy Shortages In 1973, Arabian oil countries embargoed oil shipments to the United States because we had supported Israel in the Six-Day War against Egypt  Gasoline shortages across the US led to long lines of cars at gasoline pumps, and angry drivers assaulting each other  Prices did not really soar, but gas fill-ups were often limited to so many dollars or gallons (rationing); even-or-odd fill-up days  Trans-Alaska Pipeline approved in 1973 (with early enviro protest similarity to ANWR) Through many contentious issues, California had an electricity crisis that was responsible for replacing Governor Davis with a popular actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger  Blackouts get the voters’ attention!  Shortages or total outages are received very differently by the public than blackouts from equipment failures 100422

24. 24.5.3 Lifestyle Changes Needed! Practice energy conservation and save your money for “fun” purchases (and investments for retirement) Increase energy efficiency to save even more money for needed/wanted uses Think of the marginal utility of “supersizing” your life  Less quantity or fewer features may be acceptable and allow your money to be used for other things you really want  Would you rather eat a slice of watermelon or a whole watermelon? Isn’t there a limit to “wants”? Your time may be far more valuable than your money  Live close to where you work so you don’t waste your life stuck in traffic  Work at what you would do for free, but don’t tell your boss! 100422

25. 24.5.4.1 Green Energy Cities: US Chicago, IL  Goal: 20% RE by 2006; now 15%  Solar on all municipal buildings RFP issued: Solargenix won  2010: 25% RE; 28% energy mgm’t; 22% distributed generation;25% cogeneration Sacramento, CA  Goal: 10% nonhydro by 2006; 20% by 2011  ~60% RE now; among top ten US cities supplying RE Portland, OR  Goal: new wind farm; green buildings; 100% RE by 2010  10% RE now; 1 million kWh waste methane fuel cells; green tags Austin, TX  “Goal” 35% RE and Efficiency by 2020; solar initiative 100MW by 2020 050426

26. 24.5.4.2 Green Energy Cities: International Reykjavik, Iceland (geothermal and hydro)  Goal: World’s first hydrogen city; whole country by 2050  Shell Hydrogen: electrolysis hydrogen for local buses Vancouver, Canada (hydro plus gas)  Goal: emissions reduced by 20% compared to 1999 emissions  90% RE now’ has 100-year plan” Grand Prize for Urban Sustainability Barcelona, Spain (nuclear is now 49%)  Goal: reduce emissions by 20% compared to 1999 by increasing solar panel installations Sydney, Australia (coal, solar)  Goals: Reduce coal use from 43% and oil use from 35% of total usage  500MW Singleton Solar Farms 050426

27. 24.6 International: Price Upsets Taliban takes over Pakistan government and controls nuclear weapon missiles? Many countries within reach of those missiles If Israel is threatened, will they attack Pakistan first? India has no policy plan to fight the Taliban! What would Iran (close to nuclear weapons for their missiles) do in support of other Islamic nations? International instability will immediately cause oil future prices to surge higher 100422

28. 24.C Conclusion Fossil fuel pollution may increase “Green House Effect” Humans must have air, water, food, and energy Future cars will be plug-in hybrids running occasionally on bioethanol or biodiesel for long trips Trains will replace aircraft for civilian long trips Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable approach to the World’s energy needs  Requires substantial converter building to increase supply Economics drives the selection process and short-term (first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term, overall cost 100422

29. 25.C Conclusion Fossil fuel pollution may increase “Green House Effect” Humans must have air, water, food, and energy Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable approach to the World’s energy needs Economics drives the selection process and short-term (first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term overall cost Increasing oil, gas, and coal prices will ensure that the transition to renewable energy will occur ― How will we choose to do it? 050426

30. 080710 Thank you! Questions? ? ? My website: my.fit.edu/~fleslie for presentations Roberts Hall weather and energy data: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/roberts/RH.htm DMES Meteorology Webpage: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/?q=obs/realtime/roberts

31. References: Books Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262- 02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973. Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 920 pp., 1991 Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home & Business. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Pub. Co., 1993. 0-930031-64-4, TJ820.G57, 621.4’5 Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN 0-8493-1605-7, TK1541.P38 1999, 621.31’2136 Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4. Aubrecht, Gordon J. Energy, Second Edition. NJ: Upper Saddle River, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 668 pp., 1995. 0-02-304601-5. TJ163.2.A88. 040409

32. References: Websites, etc. awea-windnet@yahoogroups.com. Wind Energy elist awea-wind-home@yahoogroups.com. Wind energy home powersite elist geothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energy mailto:energyresources@egroups.com rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html PNNL wind energy map of CONUS windenergyexperimenter@yahoogroups.com. Elist for wind energy experimenters www.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population www.ferc.gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi.html#anchor349152 on OTEC systems telosnet.com/wind/20th.html www.google.com/search?q=%22renewable+energy+course%22 solstice.crest.org/ dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.html http://cr.middlebury.edu/es/altenergylife/70's.htm http://www.barcelonaenergia.com/eng/observatory/bcnenergy3.htm 050426