1. Sustainable agricultural development in Northern Australia Peter Stone & Brian Keating CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship March 2010

2. Northern Australia is significant Nation Industry 20% 2% 1% Identity 15% 10% 5% 50% 15% 500%

3. Evolving views on the significance of NA... 1840 “…to let this fertile ground remain idle would be a mere waste…”

4. Evolving views on the significance of NA... 1880 “…this district has a great future before it to be derived from the raising of stock, cattle sheep and horses…”

5. Evolving views on the significance of NA... 1920 “The empty north is of immense strategic importance, and self- preservation demands that we devise means for introducing population into that vacant area.”

6. Evolving views on the significance of NA... 1960 “Australia could not justify retention of the North unless it exploited to the full its mineral resources and capacity for food production...failure would seem a national reproach...”

7. Evolving views on the significance of NA... 2000 “... is a place of extraordinary landscapes and wildlife and a rich and deeply spiritual Aboriginal culture...”

8. Sustainability combines these views Sustainability is not a point with a scientific optimum Sustainability is an evanescent socio- political space Social EconomicEnvironmental bearable equitable viable S

9. The place of agriculture in northern Australia $1.2b 6% GDP 7% jobs 90% area dryland irrigated pastoral

10. The place of agriculture in northern Australia 50% of crop & improved pasture area 20% of the crop & improved pasture GVP further growth constrained by climatic risk dryland irrigated pastoral

11. The place of agriculture in northern Australia $160m GVP; 34,000 ha; 225 GL 4x areal efficiency of dryland GVP 80% of value from 20% of land popular prospect for growth dryland irrigated pastoral

12. The place of agriculture in northern Australia $1,200m; 110,000,000 ha; 9 million hd 90% area of northern Australia; 1/450 th areal efficiency of irrigated GVP Benchmark productivity growth, 3.6% pa 4% of national GHG emissions dryland irrigated pastoral

13. Limits to agricultural development. Soil? suitable marginal unsuitable Suitable soils (>16,000,000 ha) do not constrain agricultural development Soil for irrigated crops

14. Limits to agricultural development. Water? evapo-transpiration stream flow groundwater 1,000,000 GL of rain falls on NA each year, on average >90% of rainfall is received in <50% of the year high inter-annual variability water is fully used supporting existing uses

15. Water availability – evapo-transpiration 65% of rainfall evaporates evapo-transpiration rates are 50% higher than southern agricultural zone high ET reduces farm water use efficiency evapo-transpiration

16. Water availability – stream flow stream flow 20% of water enters streams, then the ocean stream flow sustains terrestrial, aquatic & marine habitats & industries stream flow is highly seasonally variable stream flow occurs mainly on coastal floodplains, making impoundment difficult

17. Water availability – groundwater 15% of water enters groundwater groundwater and stream flow are often closely linked most groundwater systems operate out of sync with agricultural use patterns annual “fill & spill” groundwater may supply 600 GL for new uses groundwater

18. What can 600 GL achieve? 60,000 ha of irrigated agriculture 0.5% nation’s food calorie production highly dispersed irrigation enterprises commercial & infrastructure factors suggest opportunities for beef Groundwater prospectivity high medium low negligible

19. Beef and water Increase volume and regularity of production Increase efficiency of capital & labour Reduce market risk exposure Reduce environmental footprint

20. Sustainable agricultural development opportunity Water and soil sufficient to sustain at least 60,000 ha of new, widely distributed, irrigation development Unresolved constraints – land tenure – water ownership – renewability vs sustainability of water extraction Potential solutions – water planning using National Water Initiative

21. Towards an exciting, sustainable future...

22. Peter Stone Phone: 07 3214 2627 Mobile: 0419 285 192 Email: peter.stone@csiro.au Thank you