1. The Causes and Consequences of the October War Great Powers in the Middle East Galen Jackson April 22, 2014

2. Agenda Briefly wrap up the Israeli nuclear program The War of Attrition and the Rogers Plan The Jordan Crisis The Road to War Kissinger and the Disengagement Agreements Summary

3. The NPT Debate

4. “Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb”

5. Significance of the Israeli Bomb October 1973 Nonproliferation efforts in the Middle East/worldwide today (Iran) Egyptian-Israeli peace? U.S.-Israeli relations?

6. The Aftermath of the June 1967 War UN Resolution 242 and the Jarring Mission Egyptian armed forces completely destroyed The Allon Plan Stalemate

7. Nasser’s Strategy: Enter the Russians

8. Soviet Goals in the Middle East Nurture Egyptian dependence/expand influence with Cairo Naval facilities Avoid another war but regain lost prestige Détente? “Controlled tension?”

9. Ups and Downs in U.S.-Israeli Relations Beginning of a major military relationship Divergence on political issues—Rusk’s Sept. 1968 Seven Point Plan (territorial disagreement) Israel content to wait it out/divisions within Israeli leadership on visions for peace

10. To the War of Attrition

11. The Superpowers and the Diplomatic Impasse Nixon’s inconsistent views on the Arab-Israeli conflict Reflected in the split between State and Kissinger Rogers gets the Middle East U.S.-Soviet negotiations: a “test” for the USSR The Failure of the Rogers Plan in Dec. 1969 The End of Joint Diplomacy

12. Israel’s Escalation

13. Nasser in Moscow

14. Operation Kavkaz Starts to turn the tide—by April penetration bombing is called off Soviet missile crews/combat pilots directly engaged Washington refuses to back Israel, though Nixon does promise to quietly replace losses Costs to both sides becoming heavy/situation getting out of control by the summer

15. “Stop Shooting, Start Talking”

16. Black September

17. Significance of the Jordan Crisis Rogers is undermined The PLO is expelled to Lebanon Hussein’s position in Jordan is solidified but at the cost of his position in the Arab world U.S.-Soviet Middle East relations deteriorate further Nasser’s last act as the leader of Egypt Rise of Hafez al-Asad in Syria “Standstill diplomacy”

18. Enter Anwar Sadat

19. The Gromyko Plan

20. Détente, “Standstill Diplomacy,” and Sadat’s “Violent Shock”

21. Sadat’s Strategy

22. San Clemente

23. The October War

24. Intelligence failure Egypt’s brilliant strategy The American and Soviet airlifts—dispute about Israel’s nuclear maneuvers The Arab oil embargo Sketch of military developments—Israel turns the tide with Sharon’s crossing Kissinger in Moscow UN Resolution 338 The Oct. 24-25 nuclear alert

25. Crossing the Canal

26. The Conflict Transformed

27. Shuttle Diplomacy and Henry Kissinger Geneva Conference (Dec. 1973) Sinai I (January 1974) End of the embargo (March 1974) “The Shuttle” (May 1974): “Super K” Nixon’s resignation (Aug. 9)

28. New President, Same Problem

29. The Rabat Arab Summit

30. Reassessment (March 1975) Ford wants some quid pro quo Kissinger’s Failed March Shuttle: “The magic is gone.” Debating a comprehensive solution—linkage

31. Domestic Pushback

32. The Road to Sinai II

33. The Second Egyptian-Israeli Disengagement Agreement Limited Israeli withdrawal behind the Giddi and Mitla Passes, return of the Sinai oil fields DMZs, American civilian monitors American commitments: PLO pledge, coordination of strategy pledge, Geneva Conference procedures pledge, Golan Heights pledge (significant during the 1990s) $ and weapons for Israel ($2 billion and sophisticated equipment like Lance missiles)

34. Sinai II

35. The End of Step-by-Step Diplomacy Had run its course 1976 an election year, no progress Carter Administration opts for an overall approach

36. Summing Up Amimut: Significant for Camp David? Moscow and Washington cannot work it out From Nasser to Sadat Military option as the Arabs’ last resort October War breaks the freeze Step-by-step diplomacy—a partial solution For Thursday: To Camp David

37. Questions? Thank You!