1. Topics 1 Global Perspective 2 China Situation 3 United States 4 California 5 Conclusions Mark D. Levine MDLevine@lbl.gov For Energy & Climate Mini-Workshop Monday, 3 November 2008 Intensity of Energy Use

2. Definition Reducing intensity of energy use includes: energy efficiency structural change in economy (producing and consuming less energy-intensive products) energy conservation

3. 1 Global Perspective

4. Source: Historical 1950-2003 US and global emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; 2004-2006 US data from BP via Global Carbon Project. China 1950-2006 emissions data are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon coefficients by LBNL : 1950-2003 ;2004-2006 BP 1950-2006 - 2007 1996 IPCC. Annual Global CO 2 Emissions billion tonnes carbon dioxide China US Other Global Emissions

5. Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 70%. Total GHG emissions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1970198019902000 2004 Gt CO 2 eq/yr WEO 07 base case for 2030 has 55% increase from 2005 (increase of 25 Gt CO 2 eq/yr)

6. IPCC (WGIII) Estimates of Economically Feasible CO 2 eq/yr Reductions in 2030 by Sector * From Design to Win (2007), a project of several foundations led by the Hewlett Foundation in 2030 Total reductions Low: 13Gt/yr High 24Gt/y Constant emissions 25Gt/yr 6*4* 3* 2*

7. Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate) -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001 IEA dataEIA data note: Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data and 1993 in EIA data - 1.3% Average = - 0.7%

8. Strategic Considerations Two crucial immediate actions needed –(1) energy efficiency, (2) land use, and (3) cost-effective low carbon (electricity) supply –Very aggressive RD&D, especially on zero-carbon electricity (including electricity storage) Much stronger government policies needed –Carbon tax (or cap and trade) –Rigorous policies are needed for all end-use sectors Efficiency and fuel economy standards, building codes and retrofit requirements, and expanded demand-side management (DSM) –Few countries address industrial sector Beyond energy efficiency: conservation and structural change –Change production processes (e.g., cement) –Change industrial output and consumption patterns –Lifestyle change

9. 2 United States

10. DivRev05 page 10

11. 19732005

12. Source: David Goldstein

13. United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 19471949195119531955195719591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) Refrigerator Use per Unit 1978 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal Standard Estimated Standby Power (per house)

14. DivRev05 page 14 High # is worst

15. DivRev05 page 15 High # is worst

16. Environmental Energy Technologies 3/9/2014, p. 16 High # is worst

17. 3 China

18. Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory - Energy & GDP Growth in China (GDP) Primary Energy Use (EJ) 152 EJ (official GDP) 152 ( ) 103 EJ (revised GDP) 103 ( ) 58 EJ (actual) 58 ( ) Estimated energy use at 1980 GDP energy intensity 1980 Actual energy use (1950-2002)

19. Energy-conservation policies & measures in Phase II Energy Management factory energy consumption quotas factory energy conservation monitoring efficient technology promotion close inefficient facilities controls on oil use Financial Incentives low interest rates for efficiency project loans reduced taxes on efficient product purchases incentives to develop new efficient products monetary awards to efficient enterprises R D & D –funded strategic technology development –funded demonstration projects Information Services –national information network –national, local, and sectoral efficiency technical service centers Education & Training –national, local, and sectoral efficiency training centers –Energy Conservation Week –school curricula

20. Source: NBS, China Statistical Yearbook, various years; China Statistical Abstract 2005; growth estimates extrapolated from mid-year production data for 2005; targets announced by NDRC (2005) 2005 2005 Energy Consumed (billion tce) 36 Actual GDP Energy and GDP, Path to 2020 ( 2020 ) GDP (trillion 2000 RMB) 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0 Actual energy energy target GDP target

21. million tons carbon dioxide Annual CO 2 Emissions: US & China Source: US annual emissions amounts reported by US EIA in the 2006 Annual Energy Review and 2007 Flash Estimate; China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL : 2006 2007 ; 2007 1996 IPCC. China US

22. Source: China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL; China population data from NBS and US Census (for 1950-51); global and American emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; global and American population data from US Census 2007 1996 IPCC. ( 1950-51 ) Global, Chinese & U.S. Per-Capita Energy-Related CO2 Emissions – 1950-2004 1950-2004 tons CO2/person China US Global Average

23. Source: China Iron and Steel Association; Institute of Technical Information for the Building Materials Industry; U.S. Geological Survey Million Metric Tons Chinas Steel Production 1990 – 2007 Coal Use & Energy-Related CO 2 Chinas Cement Production 1990 – 2007 1990-2007

24. Source: U.S. Geological Survey 2008. Mineral Commodity Summaries: Cement; China National Bureau of Statistics, 2008 2008 ; 2008 India 6% Cement Production Worldwide: 2007 2007 United States 4% (includes Puerto Rico) Japan 3% Rep of Korea 2% Russia 2% Spain 2% Turkey 2% Mexico 2% Italy 2% Rest of World 26% China ~50%

25. Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory - kgce/RMB (2000) Industrial Energy Intensities are Declining 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Smelting & rolling of ferrous metals 0 2.0 Petroleum, coke & nuclear Non-metal mineral products Chemicals Non-ferrous metals Paper Coal Electricity Textiles

26. DivRev05 page 26 China has mounted an aggressive set of programs to reduce energy intensity by 20% from 2005 to 2010 It is likely to achieve a 15% reduction in energy intensity Because of large future CO 2 emissions of China, there is a strong case to be made for international support for China to reduce growth of emissions

27. 4 California

28. California

29. Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)

30. Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards CEC (2005)

31. Annual Usage of Air Conditioning in New Homes in California Annual drop averages 4% per year 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006 kWh/YEAR Source: CEC Demand Analysis Office 1992 Federal Appliance Standard California Title 20 Appliance Standards 1976-1982 Initial California Title 24 Building Standards Estimated Impact of 2006 SEER 12 Standards 100% 33%

32. Annual Spending on Electricity Energy Efficiency (1976-2002) CEC Staff Report Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California (2003)

33. DivRev05 page 33 Historical Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (1976-2002) CEC Staff Report Proposed Energy Savings Goals for Energy Efficiency Programs in California (2003) Projected Spending on Electrical Energy Efficiency (2006-2008) Dramatic Increase in CA Utility DSM Program (2006-2008)

34. Projected Impact of EE programs in reducing utility load growth (2004-2013) Utilities forecasted load growth without energy efficiency ranges from 1.1% to 2.4% annually The three CA utilities expect to reduce electricity growth to 75% from base case expectations) over coming 10 years!

35. 5 Observations and Conclusions

36. DivRev05 page 36 Greatest Needs to Reduce Energy Intensity What we cant do well enough = need for RD&D Near zero-energy commercial buildings Electricity storage, especially batteries for vehicles Industrial process and product substitution (including dematerialization) Changes in behavior and lifestyle U.S. Policy More rigorous standards and codes for buildings, industry, and automobiles Transfer DSM capabilities among utilities Open discussion of cap and trade vs. carbon tax International, especially China and India Phase out CDM – too expensive and not effective Programs to support policies to reduce GHG emissions