1. Labour Market Outlook in Labrador A Presentation for the Workforce Connex Forum: Labrador June 19 th, 2006 Department of Human Resources, Labour & Employment

2. 2 Objectives of the Presentation To help facilitate discussion among participants in the Workforce Connex Forum by: –Providing a high level overview of some key labour market trends for Labrador, including examples of sub-regional differences –Providing an overview of some current concerns and opportunities as put forward by participants in the Fall 2005 Labour Market Information Workshops

3. 3 Background: Research on Provincial Labour Market Trends  Changing labour demand  How many workers will be needed?  Employment growth  Duration of employment  Part-year work/Seasonality  Unemployment spells  Where will workers needed?  Industry distribution and growth  Occupational distribution and growth  Skill level and education  Business size and distribution  Wage growth  Recruitment and retention issues  Skill shortages  What’s going on elsewhere?  Quantity and quality of the labour supply  Where will workers come from?  Demographics  Distribution/Growth/Decline  Age  Out-migration  Immigration and In-migration  Expatriates  Local Workflows  What skills and experience will workers have?  Formal education, workplace training, informal learning  Literacy and essential skills  Post-secondary enrolments, graduates, outcomes  Who is in the labour force?  Participants, employed, unemployed, not in the labour force  Marginalized groups & barriers

4. 4 General Labour Market Overview: Labrador Region Many common trends with the island portion of the province and other jurisdictions: –Demographic change –Rural and urban and sub-regional differences –Out-migration, immigration –Education levels of the workforce –Increasing skills demands –Recruitment and retention of workers However, many unique or different influences in the regional labour market: –Geographic distribution of the population Workflows Local training –Industry and occupational distribution & future opportunities –Rate of population change –Employment growth & employment income –Attraction and retention of workers –Aboriginal population Labour supply growth Education levels

5. 5 Emerging Labour Market Opportunities & Concerns “What We Heard: A Summary of Regional Perspectives on Labour Market Trends in Newfoundland and Labrador”, LMI Workshops Fall 2005 Overall outlook among participants in Labrador very optimistic Future employment development opportunities cited for Labrador –Mining sector (e.g. IOCC Expansion) –Development of the Lower Churchill –Completion of the Trans-Labrador Highway –Developments in the oil and gas sector –Environmental clean-up at CFB Goose Bay

6. 6 Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d Changing Demographics –Population Decline and Aging Growth in Aboriginal populations –Out-migration, Intra-provincial migration, Immigration Potential for in-migration in Labrador & changing retirement patterns –Skill shortages, recruitment and retention Limitation for continued growth and expansion Retention was a major issue in Labrador, especially among some professional organization Anticipate increasing competition from Island portion of the province –Older workers –Decline of rural communities, increasing urbanization, risks for one-industry towns –Increasing opportunities for development and employment in the service sector (e.g. increasing health services/changing population demands) –Changing consumer demands may require retraining among the existing workforce for new jobs and skill requirements –Loss of local leaders and volunteer base

7. 7 Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d Education & Training –Responsiveness and capacity of the post-secondary education system –Apprenticeship, Local training –Rural/Urban differences Education levels among the urban workforce comparable to Canada –Education levels among the workforce, Workplace training –Distance education (e.g. MBA, INAP program) Career Planning and Youth –Retention of youth Gender issues –Women driving force behind labour force growth –Daycare, workplace quality issues, wage disparity

8. 8 Emerging Labour Market Concerns & Opportunities cont’d Increasing participation –Older workers, Immigrants, Women, Persons with Disabilities, –Aboriginal Populations Education and literacy levels, widening mismatch between skills available and new entrants Limits capacity to take advantage of new opportunities Labour market information –More information tailored to specific groups –Reaching employers –Increasing awareness of opportunities, especially among youth –Capacity building

9. 9 Labour Supply Highlights Population Distribution –About 70% of population in Labrador lives in Laborador West or Happy Valley-Goose Bay areas –5.3% of provincial population in 2005 (little change since 1991, slight increase by 2020) –52% of the Aboriginal population in the province (Census 2001) –65% of population is between 20 and 64 years old Population Aging and Decline –Next to the Avalon Region, Labrador has the second lowest rate of population decline –From 2005 to 2020, total population decline will continue but at a slower pace –Decline of the working-age population is going to accelerate –Average retirement age has decreased to about 61 years old. –About 22% of the population (15-64 years old) are currently within 10 years of the average retirement age.

10. 10 Population Change – Sub-Regional Differences Data Analysis/Presentation prepared by HRLE based on results from the Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch Population Projection System. Note: Medium scenario assumptions used for projections to 2020 The rate of population growth in Economic Zone 1 is higher than anywhere else in the province, including the St. John’s CMA. 12.6% of the population in Labrador resided in Economic Zone 1 in 2005 Aboriginal population has a strong influence on Labrador population trends

11. 11 Population trends may lead to labour shortages… However, there will be differences among regions and…

12. 12 There will be differences within regions

13. Labour Supply Highlights: Workflows in Newfoundland and Labrador The majority of workers in Labrador live and work in same community Source: Prepared by Geostats. Based on 2001 Census Workflow data from custom tabulation provided by Statistics Canada

14. 14 Labour Supply: Education and Training

15. 15 Majority of workers do not participate in workplace training Main Types of Formal Training –Occupational health, safety and environmental protection –Team building, communication –Decision making, problem solving Main Types of Informal Training –Equipment –Computer Applications Source: Preliminary Results, Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Activity Survey, NLSA (2004) Labour Supply: Education and Training

16. 16 Labour Demand: Employment Labrador and the Avalon Regions are the only two regions where employment has met or exceeded 1990 levels in the past five years Average employment income has also been increasing in the province and Labrador Average employment incomes in Labrador are the second highest in the province Note again, there are sub- provincial differences Source: Based on Canada Revenue Agency summary information as provided by Small Area and Administrative Data Division, Statistics Canada.

17. 17 Labour Demand: Part-year employment NL has the highest percentage of part- year workers in the country at 52%. Part-year employment is a major influence on provincial labour markets 68% of workers in rural areas were employed in part- year jobs in 2001.

18. 18 In 2001, 68% of the Aboriginal Identity population in Labrador (15+ Years) worked part-year or part-time Labour Demand: Part-year employment

19. 19 Duration of work has been increasing…

20. 20 Labour Demand: Industry Employment Province: Total - Industry (based on 1980 SIC) 245,275 Division J - Retail Trade Industries12.9% Division P - Health and Social Service Industries 12.7% Division E - Manufacturing Industries10.2% Division N - Government Service Industries 8.2% Division O - Educational Service Industries 7.9% Labrador Region: Total - Industry (based on 1980 SIC) 14,945 Division D - Mining (including milling), Quarrying and Oil Well Industries 15.4% Division J - Retail Trade Industries11.5% Division P - Health and Social Service Industries 9.9% Division N - Government Service Industries9.4% Division R - Other Service Industries7.4%

21. 21 Labour Demand: Top Three Industries for Employment within Region CCS 10A- Pinware River CCS 10B- Labrador East Coast CCS 10C- Goose Bay Area CCS 10D- Labrador West CCS 10E- Labrador North Manufacturing (17.1%) Fishing & Trapping (20.0%) Health and Social Service (15.9%) Mining (37.1%)Health and Social Service (16.0%) Fishing & Trapping (15.7%) Manufacturing (19.7%) Government Service (15.6%) Retail Trade (11.6%) Government Service (15.6%) Retail Trade (10.6%) Construction (9.7%) Retail Trade (12.7%) Accommodation & Food Services (7.2%) Educational Services (11.8%)

22. 22 Labour Demand: Top Five Industries for Growth 1995-2000 Source: Custom tabulation, 1996 and 2001 Census, Statistics Canada Province: Labrador Region: Numbers of Workers Construction Industries Health and Social Service Industries Business Service Industries Wholesale Trade Industries Fishing and Trapping Industries Rate of Growth Real Estate Operator and Insurance Agent Industries Business Service Industries Construction Industries Wholesale Trade Industries Health and Social Service Industries Agricultural and Related Service Industries*** Numbers of Workers Health and Social Service Industries Business Service Industries Fishing and Trapping Industries Wholesale Trade Industries Manufacturing Industries Fish Processing Rate of Growth Business Service Industries Fishing and Trapping Industries Wholesale Trade Industries Health and Social Service Industries Mining (including milling), Quarrying and Oil Well Industries

23. 23 Labour Demand: Occupational Distribution Source: Statistics Canada, custom tabulation; Census 2001

24. 24 Labour Demand: Top Three Occupations within region CCS 10A-Pinware River CCS 10B- Labrador East Coast CCS 10C- Goose Bay Area CCS 10D- Labrador West CCS 10E- Labrador North Sales and Service (21.2%) Primary Occupations (25.9%) Sales and Service (28.6%) Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators (28.4%) Sales and Service (29.7%) Primary (19.8%) Sales and Service (19%) Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators (17.7%) Sales and Service (23.8%) Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators (16.3%) Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators (19.8%) Processing and Manufacturing (19%) Office and Related (16.5%) Office and Related (11.0%) All Other Occupations (16.0%)

25. 25 Labour Demand: Top Five Occupations for Growth 1995-2000 Province:Labrador Region: Numbers of Workers Other - Management Clerical occupations Other - Primary Other - Processing and manufacturing Fishers Rate of Growth Other - Management Other - Primary Fishers Other - Processing and manufacturing Other - Office and related Numbers of Workers Fishers Other - Management Other - Health Fish processing workers Other - Office and related Rate of Growth Other - Office and related Fishers Other – Health (not nurrses) Fish processing workers Other - Management

26. 26 Labour Demand: Vacancies 51% of firms in 2004 employed 1 to 4 employees, 29% employed 5 to 19 workers (Province: 60% and 35% respectively Labrador has 5.2% of all businesses in province, similar to population distribution

27. 27 Hard-to-Fill Positions Hard-to-fill positions or shortages cited by workshop participants in Labrador included: mining occupations, teachers, social workers, nurses, sales and services staff, and workers with generic skills/soft skills

28. 28 Thank You and For Further Information: Pamela Toope Director, Labour Market Development Division Department of Human Resources, Labour and Employment 3 rd Floor, Confederation Building, West Block P.O. Box 8700 St. John’s, NL A1B 4J6 Phone: (709) 729-5184 or (709) 729-6516 Fax: (709) 729-5560 Email: labourmarket@gov.nl.calabourmarket@gov.nl.ca Web: www.labourmarketnetwork.nl.ca (Summer 2006)www.labourmarketnetwork.nl.ca