1. Changing Science and Engineering: the impact of HPC Sept 23, 2009 Edward Seidel Assistant Director, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, NSF (Director, OCI)

2. Profound Transformation of Science Gravitational Physics  Galileo, Newton usher in birth of modern science: c. 1600  Problem: single “particle” (apple, planet) in gravitational field (General 2 body- problem already too hard)  Methods  Data: notebooks (Kbytes)  Theory: driven by data  Computation: calculus by hand (1 Flop/s)  Collaboration  1 brilliant scientist, 1-2 student

3. 3 3D Collision Science Result Year: 1998 Team size ~ 15 Data produced ~ 50Gbytes 3D Collision Science Result Year: 1998 Team size ~ 15 Data produced ~ 50Gbytes Profound Transformation of Science Collision of Two Black Holes Science Result The “Pair of Pants” Year: 1994 Team size ~ 10 Data produced ~ 50Mbytes Impact of HPC taking root Science Result The “Pair of Pants” Year: 1994 Team size ~ 10 Data produced ~ 50Mbytes Impact of HPC taking root  Science Result  The “Pair of Pants”  Year: 1972  Team size  1 person (S. Hawking)  Computation  Flop/s  Data produced  ~ Kbytes (text, hand-drawn sketch)  400 years later…same!

4. Cyberinfrastructure Enables Full Solutions to Einstein’s Equations  100 year quest: EE’s can’t be solved since 1916  Decades of struggle in community  Individual PIs, groups, grand challenges, communities  2002-2005: Breakthoughs for 2BH orbits: general EEs can now be solved by many groups!  Now ready for the Universe! BrownsvillePretorius*AEI/LSUGoddard Waveforms!

5. Two decades later: Complexity of Universe LHC, Gamma-ray bursts!  Gamma-ray bursts! All energy emitted in lifetime of sun bursts out in a few seconds: what are they?! Colliding BH-NS? SN? GR, hydrodynamics, nuclear physics, radiation transport, neutrinos, magnetic fields: globally distributed collab! Scalable algorithms, complex AMR codes, viz, PFlops*week, PB output!  LHC: What is the nature of mass? Higgs particle? ~10K scientists, 33+ countries, 25PB data, distributed! Planetary lab for scientific discovery! Now, compare with observation...LIGO, GEO, VIRGO! GR becomes a collaborative data- driven science Remote Instrument

6. Data-Driven Multiscale Collaborations* for Complexity Great Challenges of 21st Century  HPC began the revolution, but it continues in 4 dimensions!  Multiscale Collaborations General Relativity, Particles, Geosciences, Bio, Social... Data need to be shared in collab...  Science and Society being transformed by CI and Data Compute, data, network volumes grow 9-12 orders of magnitude in two decades Completely new methodologies HPC previewed fundamental shift to data-driven science: will be different  Science needs place requirements on data access *Small groups still important!

7. Summary  After 4 centuries of constancy in science methods and culture, we have experienced a profound step function in change  9-12 orders of magnitude in data, compute, network, and exponentially growing  Collaborations growing dramatically in all areas as we solve complex challenges  HPC was just the beginning  Data-driven science computational methods (including HPC) are the foreseeable future in every discipline  Data are the media of collaboration