1. 2006 Elections, Recent Public Opinion Findings By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

2. Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’ 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

3. Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006

4. Composite Picture – 2006 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

5. Trends in Party Registration - Statewide 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

6. How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages? Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002: All Rep and unaffiliated voters = 731128 Ehrlich ’02 vote = 879592 Democratic defections (and other party registrants): 2002 - 148464 2006 - 11927 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

7. Anne Arundel Only Results Exit Poll

8. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

9. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

10. How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages – Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%) Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%) Party Registration EhrlichO’MalleyOthersDidn’t vote Cases Democrats177936180 Republicans891001167 Unaffiliated54406050 Other8380812 2006 Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results How informed? Govr Cty Exec. Very5634 Somewhat3745 Not very721 Total100 Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues?

11. Anne Arundel Only Results Demographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll 42% Overall 40% 51-60 61% African-Americans 45% 31-40 37% 41-50 47% 18-30+ 37% Whites 36% Men 49% Women 32% $75-110k 50% Postgrad 50% 61-70 56% 70+ 38% >$110k+ 49% <$50k 47% $50-75k 50% Some Coll. 38% Bachelor’s 36% HS or less

12. Anne Arundel County Only Results Demographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll 42% Overall 65% Jewish 93% Strong Dem 78% Weak Dem 38% Independent 5% Weak Rep 60% “Other” 48% Protestant 46% “Non-practicing” 36% Catholic 27% Evangelical 2% Strong Rep

13. What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Depends how you ask the question! Closed-ended: Economy -21% Education – 18% Taxes – 16% Crime - 13 Open-ended: Education – 18% Taxes – 8% Economy – 5% Crime -4% Issue Type of Poll - % Mentioning Closed-ended results by candidate IssueClosedOpenEhrlichO’Malley Economy2155344 Education18 4357 Taxes1686931 Crime1345540 Growth836239 Cost of living6350 Slots638020 Healthcare501388 Environment334060 Work with legislature302575 College tuition326040 Nothing cited051 Total100 2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Issues in AA County

14. Type of Survey - % citing Closed-ended by candidate Traits OpenClosedEhrlichO’Malley Honesty, trustworthy 3310 4456 All others 210 -- Party 70 -- Leadership, competence, has a plan 722 5545 Clear, straightforward, forthright 60 -- Generally likeable character 60 -- Persistent, consistent 50 -- Right experience 425 6931 Past record 30 -- Integrity/right moral outlook 321 7322 Overall beliefs 30 -- Family man 26 1090 Understand the needs of others 012 2075 Works well with others 04 1486 Total 100 Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exit Poll 2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Candidate Traits Motivating Voters in A A County

15. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District

16. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Only Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races

17. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County More Voting Quirks: Republican % of Absentee/Provisional Ballots

18. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results County Executive Results

19. Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party RepublicansDemocratsDidn’t Vote EhrlichLeopoldO’MalleyJohnsonGovr.County Exec. Cases Democrats 1722 797464180 Republicans8980 1014 15167 Unaffiliated5439 4055 0650 Other83428 81712 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support

20. Anne Arundel County Results Demographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll 49% Overall 41% 51-60 61% African-Americans 55% 31-40 45% 41-50 52% 18-30+ 37% Whites 50% Women/Men 39% $75-110k 54% Postgrad 50% 61-70 53% 70+ 51% >$110k+ 52% <$50k 60% $50-75k 55% Some Coll. 43% Bachelor’s 44% HS or less

21. Anne Arundel County Results Demographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll 49% Overall 60% Jewish 89% Strong Dem 79% Weak Dem 53% Independent 15% Weak Rep 56% “Other” 52% Protestant 66% “Non-practicing” 46% Catholic 28% Evangelical 12% Strong Rep

22. County Executive Candidates: Issues 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

23. County Executive Candidates: Candidate Traits 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

24. Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate InfluenceOverallLeopoldJohnsonCases The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself 138020 Information from the Internet 13653020 Literature received in the mail 15633324 Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun 14574423 Newspaper stories about candidate 20475032 Conversations with friends or family 22415137 I saw the candidate speak at a public forum 11415317 Endorsed by some person or group I respect 33395954 Paid ads in the newspapers 538638 Candidate’s name from signs along major roads 538508 Paid ads on TV 15296724 I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc. 8277311 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

25. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes Visions for Anne Arundel County Public Schools% I favor a school system which is absolutely top quality regardless of the cost. 50 I favor a school system which is of good quality but doesn’t increase my taxes. 36 Other volunteered answer7 No answer7 Total100 Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase? Position% Fully fund this proposal by raising some County taxes.25 Fully fund this proposal by reducing other County services20 Partially fund this proposal to the extent possible without increasing taxes or reducing other County services. 43 Other volunteered answer6 No answer7 Total100

26. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses? ResponsePercent The county should pay for these expenses without raising any taxes or fees, even if it has to cut back on other public services 31 The county should pay for these expenses by a combination of cost reductions and tax increases 55 Some other volunteered answer8 No answer7 Total101 The County will be facing several budget challenges over the next few years including funding public schools, roads, changes in accounting rules, and increasing salaries to help recruit qualified government employees. Which of the following best reflects your views about how the County should deal with these challenges:

27. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?

28. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact? Since the Elections: BRAC

29. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 How to deal with influx of new workers and the demand for housing? Since the Elections: BRAC ResponseAgreeDisagreeNo Answer Make it possible to build new housing more quickly by reducing the time it takes to get building permits. 45487 Increase the maximum number of units that can be built on land – for example allowing condominiums to be built instead of single family houses. 37577 Focus on providing more resources to the redevelopment of older northern and western areas of the County. 751412 Spend more on increasing public transportation to the area rather than improving the roads. 46 7 Increase impact fees so that new housing construction will help pay for new roads, schools and other services. 69265 “Many of these new workers may seek to find housing in Anne Arundel County. Do you agree or disagree with the following proposals meant to accommodate such new workers?”

30. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals ProposalAgreeDisagreeNo answer Banning all roadside solicitation on County roads76213 Increasing the cigarette tax by one dollar to help pay for increasing health insurance coverage to the uninsured. 72271 Banning smoking in all restaurants and bars68293 Forcing all new cars sold in Maryland to comply with California pollution standards 51409 Repealing the death penalty in Maryland33589

31. CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval

32. DEM Presidential Primaries: National Trends

33. DEM Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

34. REP Presidential Primaries: National Trends

35. REP Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

36. Presidential Primaries: Head to Head Match-ups Based on Zogby 7-18-07