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Is Transit Part of the Equation? Is Transit Part of the Equation? Travel Data Users Forum: How Will the Changing Cost of Energy Affect Personal Travel? Session 681 Wednesday, January 16, 2008, 10:15 AM - 12:00 PM, Hilton Steven E. Polzin, PhD CUTR, USF
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Comments Historical & theoretical relationship between fuel price and transit use The availability and economics of shifting to transit Data for understanding fuel price and transit use Transit opportunities and challenges
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Impact of Fuel Prices on Mode Choice Social, Political & Economic Conditions Fuel Price Fuel Supply Mode Choice Transit: Availability Cost Time Auto Travel Cost: Vehicle type Trip length Occupancy Public Attitudes: Climate change Energy Independence Environment
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Observations: Research in 2007 established that for every 10% increase in gas prices, US transit demand has increased by around 1.2%, a cross elasticity of demand to gas prices (e) of 0.12 [2]. The same research demonstrated much higher effects on US light rail systems; e= 0.27 to 0.38 (i.e. between two and three times higher than aggregate values) while heavy rail values were e=0.17 and bus was insensitive (e=0.04). These patterns are clearly of much interest to transit planners, however a need for further research has been identified to explore causal patterns further [2]. Understanding Links Between Transit Ridership and Auto Gas Prices – US and Australian Evidence PAPER NUMBER 08-0153 Currie, G. and J. Phung, Transit Ridership, Auto Gas Prices and World Events – New Drivers of Change. Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Washington DC (Forthcomming), 2007.
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8 Almost 50 % of households nationally live within 1/2 mile of a bus route
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9 Approximately 10 % of the nation’s population lives within one mile of a rail station
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10 About 50 % of households interviewed in the 1995 NPTS believed they lived within 1/4 mile from a public bus route (2001 NHTS)
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11 About 60% of people work within one-half mile of a bus route
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12 About 10% of the population works within one-half mile of a rail stop
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How far can you drive on one “fare’s” worth of Gas?
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Assuming $3 gas, 20 mpg efficiency, and $1.50 fares, commuters could travel10 miles for the cost of transit Thus 57% of folks would not save out of pocket costs on transit.
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15 Fleet characteristics and related fuel costs are changing… Base: 2001 NHTS data and 2006 updated fuel costs
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TRANSPORTATION ENERGY DATA BOOK: EDITION 26–2007 Table 2.13 Energy Intensities of Highway Passenger Modes, 1970–2005 Light trucks not shown.
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17 Fuel use also varies by trip purpose…. Source: National Household Travel Survey Data Series (NHTS), FHWA
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Challenges of Determining Fuel Price Impacts u Detailed analysis is only possible at local level and then may be impossible due to data/resource constraints. u Extremely difficult to factor out economic, service, fare, marketing, demographic or other confounding factors.
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What Additional Data Would Help u Aggregate transit use data is old u APC data can provide more specific trip length data for analysis u A basis for normalizing to adjust for local fuel costs, population growth, service supply, fare levels, economic activity, etc.
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Can Transit Secure an Efficiency Advantage? u New CAFE standards u Improving transit efficiency u Vehicle technology and fuel (vehicle life cycle) u Service speed u Service productivity u Matching vehicle/mode to market u Disciplining the provision of amenities
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21 One last thing…How long will it take for standards on new vehicles to make an impact? The average vehicle is now nearly 9 years old Source: NHTS Data Series, 1977 - 2001
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22 15 EPA MPGFord Explorer 23 EPA MPG Toyota Camry 26 with 2 Occ. Escalade 48 EPA MPGToyota Prius 2005 NTD data
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23 Competition Will Change
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24 Transit Must Be Faster CUTR analysis of 2001 NPTS data
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25 Source: NTD Data, CUTR Analysis
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26 Source: NTD Data, CUTR Analysis
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27 Source: NTD Data, CUTR Analysis Passenger Miles Per Revenue Vehicle Mile
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How Might Transit Deploy Resources to Respond to a Serious Price Increase or Shortage? u Deploy to longer/faster trips u Implement priority treatments u Build reserve fleets
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29 Thank You
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