1. Overview of WC-130J storm-scale observations during TPARC/TCS08 Peter G. Black (1) and Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2) (1) SAIC, Inc. and Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA (2) Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA Third THORPEX International Science Symposium Monterey, CA 14-18 September, 2009

2. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: TCS08 Experiment Analysis: Tools 1) 1)WC-130J Aircraft (2) GPS dropsonde (750, ~ 26/flt) for atmospheric profiling (high-altitude) AXBT*- ocean thermal profiling (250, ~ 13/flt) SFMR- surface winds Radar Video Recording*- TC structure ADOS profiler/ Minimet drift buoys- 3D ocean structure, surface currents (24) 2) 2)NRL P3 (1) Eldora Doppler Radar- 3D winds LIDAR*- boundary layer wind profiles GPS dropsonde- atmospheric profiling (low)   * First used in TCS08 What did we use?

3. TCS08 Experimental Analysis: TCS08 Experimental Analysis: Statistics Research Flights Missions: 26 Mission Flight Hours: 263 High-Level Missions, 300mb: 12 TC 700mb Missions: 12 Buoy Deployment Missions: 2 Tropical Cyclones: 4 WC-130J Aircraft Performance

4. TC Observational Strategy Define vertical structure over a TC vortex-scale domain (WC-130J) in developing/intensifying systems within environmental domain (SAT, DOTSTAR, FALCON) to provide context for mesovortex (VHT) domain (P3)Define vertical structure over a TC vortex-scale domain (WC-130J) in developing/intensifying systems within environmental domain (SAT, DOTSTAR, FALCON) to provide context for mesovortex (VHT) domain (P3) Focus on better definition of asymmetric 3D initial vortex in sheared environment for evolving coupled modelsFocus on better definition of asymmetric 3D initial vortex in sheared environment for evolving coupled models Driven by emerging requirements for improved 5 to 7 day forecastsDriven by emerging requirements for improved 5 to 7 day forecasts

5. Unprecidented Real-Time Satellite Capabilities: Data Fusion

6. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: Situational Awareness Real-Time Communications Real-Time Data Fusion

7. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: TCS08 Experiment Analysis: HYPOTHESES I First of Two Key Hypotheses: I. I.Typhoon Formation emerges from initial meso-vortex in Convective Cloud Clusters via: Mid-level spin-up and downward growth, i.e.- Top-Down OR Low-level spin-up and upward growth, i.e.- Bottom-Up

8. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: TCS08 Experiment Analysis: Scenarios Two of several Key Formation Scenarios: Tropical Easterly Wave/ Upper Trough Interactions: (Many observed during TCS08) Westerly Wind Burst associated with monsoon trough: (NONE observed during TCS08)

9. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: I TCS08 Experiment Analysis: RATIONALE I I.New 5-day forecasts (soon 7-day forecasts) require improved knowledge of TC Formation: Where?Where? How Fast?How Fast? II.Strategic and economic consequences increasing exponentially with time! Why Investigate TC Formation?

10. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: TCS08 Experiment Analysis: OBJECTIVE I 1) 1)Address Hypothesis I: Develop high-level WC-130J Aircraft observing strategy to define: TC 3D storm-scale structure Intensity Change Context for NRL P3 meso-scale obs

11. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: TCS08 Experiment Analysis: RESULTS I 1) 1) Hypothesis I: Concurrent low- and mid-level vortices were observed in developing and non-developing TC Formation cases with 120 – 200 km separation (In Tropical Wave/ TUTT interaction cases), i.e. not single tilted vortex, but distinct vortex pairs (Preliminary) Challenge is to learn to distinguish developers from non-developers

12. x Surface 700 mb 120 km TCS-25 27-28, Aug Surface 15 kt x TCS-25 27-28, Aug 700 mb 20 kt

13. x SSMIS- F16 27 Sept, 2213 GMT WC-130J sondes- SFC 27 Sept, 21 UTC - 28 Sept, 03 UTC

14. TCS-37 Surface 200 km separation 15 kt 25 kt 15 kt 25 kt TCS-37 400 MB

15. 0030 UTC 7 Sept, 2008 TCS-37 Data Fusion: Google-Earth Enhanced IR + WC-130J flight track, Dropsonde locations Active convection At begining of flight 0330 UTC 7 Sept, 2008 Convection collapses near end of flight

16. TCS08 Experiment Analysis : TCS08 Experiment Analysis : HYPOTHESES II Second of Two Key Hypotheses: II.Typhoon Intensity Change, including Rapid Intensification (RI), is driven by atmospheric conditioning: Large-scale environmental interaction Oceanic Variability

17. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: RATIONALE II I. I.Rapid Intensity (RI) Change accounts for more than half of the large TC intensity forecast errors. II. II.Strategic and economic consequences for unforecasted RI, which occur in only 15% of the TC life cycle, account for 85% of TC losses. Why Investigate TC Rapid Intensity (RI) Change?

18. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: TCS08 Experiment Analysis: OBJECTIVE II 2) 2)Address Hypothesis II: Develop TC and ocean observing strategy to define background ocean conditions and ocean-TC interaction (Environmental monitoring accomplished by TPARC large-scale observing strategy)

19. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: TCS08 Experiment Analysis: RESULTS II 2) 2)Hypothesis II: Rapid TC Intensification and Rapid TC Filling occurred over Warm and Cold eddies, respectively, in the WPAC Southern Eddy Zone*   Defined by Wu, et al. (18-25N) (Preliminary)

20. SATCON Intensity: Velden, CIMSS Hawkins, NRL TCS08 Jangmi Sept, 2008 Track, Intensity Change Aircraft JMA 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 920 900 940 960 980 1000 Pressure (mb) 0 50 100 150 Wind Speed (kt) Rapid Intensification Rapid Filling Aircraft Pmin OHC Gradient Landfall Kuroshio Rapid Structure Change

21. 27 Sept, 1134 27 Sept, 2132 28 Sept, 0006 OHC Gradient Cold, Shallow Warm, Deep Eyewall, bands decay Eyewall shrinks, asymmetric band structure forms Eyewall open west, NW quad rainbands disappear 27 Sept, 0445 STY Jangmi Rapid Structure Change Time Concentric Eyewalls: Peak Intensity SSTA

22. JangmiSSTA2008 26 Aug JangmiSSTA2008 28 Aug JangmiOHC 27 Aug

23. QSCAT- and ASCAT-only Data over-estimates size And under-estimates intensity WC-130J SFMR data defines true TC intensity and size

24. Super-Typhoon Jangmi 27 Sept., 2008 0935 UTC Radar Video defines Eyewall and Rainband Structure and Evolution

25. Aircraft – Buoy Deployment P-3 flight track 2313 UTC 26 September First buoy deployment In TY Hagupit several days earlier Second deployment in STY Jangmi Buoy, aircraft, and satellite data in Google Earth First occurrence of the deployment of drifting buoys ahead of a category 5 tropical cyclone (Jangmi). Chart at left and imagery below are from a few hours after the deployment of the buoys along the diagonal to the northwest of the TC

26. TCS08 AXBT Locations Ko, NRL Stennis AXBT vs NRL Ocean Model Initial Conditions TCS08 Ocean Heat Content Obs: Concurrent with GPS dropsondes Preview of ITOP2010 Model underpredicts high heat content Ocean Heat Content (OHC)

27. Data Gap AXBT’s act to fill data gaps in drifter coverage And define spacial gradients

28. 2008 Drifters 25 Aug 27 Aug 29 Aug

29. Ko, NRL Stennis AXBT’s help to adjust model-predicted eddy locations D26 100 m 50 m

30. FINAL COMMENT We are at an historic turning point in history for improving hurricane intensity observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the TC surface and mid-level wind domain concurrent with subsurface ocean thermal structure matches the improved coupled model capabilities to assimilate and model the total TC environment. This alignment should provide the next best opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.

31. CONCLUSIONS 1. 1.‘Tip-of-the-iceberg’ Results: Co-existence of low/mid level vortex pairs is typical of formation events Strong relation of RI/RF to warm/cold ocean eddies in absence of strong atmospheric forcing The observation strategy for TCS08 was sound 2. 2.‘Stage is set’ for additional in-depth analysis Determine system evolution with time Validate satellite estimation schemes Elaborate theoretical hypotheses leading to new physics Conduct coupled numerical model simulations to test new physics 3. 3.For the Future- Fill GAPS (possibly in concert with ITOP 2010) by observing: Normally-dominant monsoon trough/ westerly burst formation events Vortex-pair TC formation scenarios Satellite validation cases to reach statistical significance Air-sea RI events with and without strong shear for small/large TCs

32. END

33. Overview of WC-130J storm-scale observations during TPARC/TCS08 Peter G. Black (1) and Jeffrey D. Hawkins (2) (1) SAIC, Inc. and Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA (2) Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA Third THORPEX International Science Symposium Monterey, CA 14-18 September, 2009 AUXILLARY SLIDES

34. TCS08 Experiment Analysis: TCS08 Experiment Analysis: Milestones 1. 1.Developed detailed flight plan and communications strategies 2. 2.Developed and implemented AXBT observing system and implemented drift buoy deployments 3. 3.Implemented high altitude (300 mb) TC formation flight strategy with concurrent GPS sonde and AXBT deployments over a 5 deg grid 4. 4.Provided maximum surface wind and minimum surface pressure observations during TC life cycle for validation of satellite TC Intensity estimates (Hawkins, et al) 5. 5.Provided aircraft SFMR, radar video, AXBT and GPS dropsonde data for initialization/validation of COAMPS- TC coupled model simulations of STYJangmi and other TCS08 typhoons (Doyle, et al) What did we do?

35. TCS08 Flight Patterns: Formation Base of Operations Bow-Tie Racetrack Square Spiral Zig-Zag Define multi-level vortex and cloud cluster evolution Most frequently used

36. TCS08 Flight Patterns: TC Structure Base of Operations Bow-Tie Figure 4 Butterfly Rotated Fig 4 Define mean vortex Observe Pmin, Vmax Define structure, TC asymmetries